"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Jul 06, 2014 4:32 pm

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Dear all forum users!

As you already know, TradeFort company obtained an international license IFSC/60/256/TS/14.

Due to that fact, TradeFort has successfully re-branded and since 29th of June works under a Fort Financial Services brand. We have tried to maximally improve our fundamental and technical analysis of financial markets.

We hope, that you will appreciate the analysis we provide. We are looking forward to hear your comments and suggestions.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Mar 24, 2016 6:21 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar stopped its growth. Earlier two factors supported the dollar: returned risk appetite and the new "hawkish" statements of Fed speakers. Traders started to buy the dollar after the Bullard’s performance (Fed representative). Bullard joined the recent comments of his colleagues, having revived traders’ hopes for an early rate hike, which, according to several speakers might occur in April or June. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than it was expected: 265 thousand against the forecasted 268 thousand. Western World will celebrate Good Friday today.

The yield differential of US and German government bonds reduced. That fact reduced the attractiveness of US assets and would put pressure on the dollar. Another important positive factor was the closing of risk assets. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar showed a growth after a decrease.

The UK retail sales report for February was the main event in the UK yesterday. The index pleased us and showed -0.4% when the forecast was -0.7%. The pair pound/dollar strengthened by the end of the trades.

Japan showed a mixed fundamental background yesterday. On the one hand, the Japanese government downgraded its forecasts for economic growth in 2016. The government expects the decline in personal consumption and corporate profits decrease. In this regard, bears are well aware that count on the strengthening of the yen is extremely dangerous. On the other hand, the financial markets showed decline of "risk appetite", which might positively impact the yen as a funding currency. The pair dollar/yen increased after the downward movement.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The pair focused its attention on the stock assets dynamics in the absence of economic data. Risk interest played against the single currency, which was also affected by the strengthening of the dollar after the Fed representatives’ "hawkish" statements. The EUR/USD could not strengthen even after a slight
deterioration of sentiment on the USA stock market that was caused by oil quotations falling. The dollar kept its stable positions. Only by the end of the trades the piar increased amid the slight dollar’s weakness.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.1150. The potential growth target is the resistance levels of 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

The UK government bonds yields grew in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany), which increased the attractiveness of British assets. The increased "risk appetite" could not be ignored as well, putting pressure on the cross-rate EUR/GBP. The risk appetite had a positive impact on the British currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4240 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

Japanese exporters repeatedly stated the need of measures aimed at weakening of the national currency. The US and Japanese government bond yield differential widened to its highest level since 30 th December, 2015, which also played into the hands of the US currency buyers.

The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 113.00. If the price falls it will get to 112.20.



Franc

General overview

The dollar strengthened its positions after a positive US housing market data. The promising Federal Reserve representatives’ comments supported the USA currency as well along side with the increased demand for safe assets after the terrorist attacks in Brussels. However, then the dollar’s growth stopped.

The first support resides at 0.9750, the next is at 0.9660. The first resistance stands at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 0.9850 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.9960 will be opened after this breakthrough. If the price fixates below the support 0.9660, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 0.9580



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Mar 27, 2016 8:53 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

Traders continued buying the dollar, still the dollar strengthening was weak and soon after the dollar retreated. In general, traders activity was gradually reduced amid the long Easter weekend (European and the US markets are closed). The dollar positions were undermined by the ambiguous statistics from the United States, although all published reports were quite positive. The United States published the final GDP for the fourth quarter. The data came in at the level 1,4% against the forecasted 1,0%.

German government bonds yields decreased in relation to their counterparts (the US and the UK) which pressured the euro. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat.

The 10-year government bonds yield in the UK increased in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany), which increased the attractiveness of British assets. Moreover the oil market dynamics was hard to ignore. After a correction caused by weak oil stocks in the US, investors once again began to build up long positions that had a positive impact on the British currency. Only by the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar slightly decreased.

The published inflation data in Japan showed that the consumer price index over the year in February was not changed. Low energy prices and weak demand limited the growth of the price. These facts kept pressuring the Bank of Japan to increase the size of the stimulus, although the regulator had softened its monetary policy in January. The pair dollar/yen slightly increased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

According to Klaas Knot (the president of the Netherlands Bank) the effectiveness of stimulus measures taken by the European Central Bank is approaching its limit. He believes that the ECB monetary policy instruments have been exhausted.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. If the price falls it will get to 1.1150 and 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

Retail Sales ex-Fuel report supported the pound. The index rose by 4.1% y/y vs. the forecast of + 3.4% and the January values at + 5.1%. Retail sales also came in better than expected, reaching 0.4% against analysts' forecast of -0.7%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4160 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

Yen failed to take an advantage from a flight from risk. The meeting of the BoJ became another negative factor for the yen. The head of the Central Bank Haruhiko Kuroda said that the monetary policy easing would be continued as long as the inflation stabilized at around 2%.

The price is finding the first support at 113.00, the next one is at 112.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 113.80. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 113.00 and 112.20.



Franc

General overview

In addition to the US statistics Bullard's performance (the representative of the Fed) was in the spotlight. According to Bullard the next rate hike may happen soon enough as the March forecasts decline was relatively small. Kaplan (another Fed representative) said that the Fed was aimed to normalize the interest rates "as quickly as possible."

The first support resides at 0.9750, the next is at 0.9660. The first resistance stands at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 0.9850 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.9960 will be opened after this breakthrough. If the price fixates below the support 0.9750, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 0.9660



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:07 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

Janet Yellen's speech was the key event yesterday. According to Yellen she is concerned about the low inflation figures. Meanwhile, the Fed has a number of tools for the economy stimulus, if needed, even if the rate returns back to zero. In addition, she noted that the world changes and risks lead to a slower pace of interest rate increase.

The dollar failed to grow against most of its rivals at the beginning of the new trading week. The US currency became a victim of the weak statistics from the US. The market response to the news was extremely intense in a low liquidity due to the ongoing Easter holiday. There was a mixed background concerning the single European currency. On the one hand, the "risk appetite" was preserved, which should put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. On the other hand, after Personal Consumption Expenditures publication the US dollar fell against its major competitors. The US published Consumer Confidence report for March at the level of 96.2 (the previous value was 92.2, the forecast was 93.9). By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a strong growth.

The growing oil price pushed the pound upwards. The pair pound/dollar increased by the end of the trades.

The yen finished the rally and weakened after the conflicting economic release from Japan. The interest in selling could be associated with the reports about the monetary stimulus measures discussion. The volume of consumer spending in Japan increased by 1.2% in February compared to the last year (it was the first time in six months), which was significantly better than the expected decline of 1.8%. The volume of retail sales grew by only 0.5% with the expected growth of 1.6%. The unemployment rate rose from 3.2% to 3.3%. The pair dollar/yen sharply fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The pair euro/dollar increased on Tuesday. Earlier the dollar rose against the European currency as investors were preparing for Yellen’s speech. Everybody was guessing whether the Chairmen would give a hint regarding the next rate hike in the United States or not. The Eurozone and the United States monetary polices will continue to diverge as long as investors are confident in the Fed’s future rate increase. Meanwhile the euro will be supported by Mario Draghi’s statements that the rates are at the lowest limit.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670, the next one is 1.1450.



Pound

General overview

The widespread dollar selling supported the pair GBP/USD. We recommend to pay attention to Manufacturing PMI which will be published on Friday. We also wait for Mark Carney’s performance (Bank of England Chairman) on Thursday.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4400 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The yen remained under pressure when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that he intended to implement the planned rise of sales tax in April, if the economy did not suffer from sudden shocks. Many analysts expected that Abe to postpone the planned increase, that is a threat to the fragile recovery of the Japanese economy. Only by the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen fell amid the dollar’s weakness.

The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 112.20 and 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Mar 30, 2016 1:29 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

31.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar suffered significant losses. The US currency fell victim to the extremely soft Fed rhetoric. The regulator emphasized the risks: external and internal, and also mentioned the possibility of policy easing if necessary. The regulator’s comments suggest a significant weakening of the dollar, especially in light of the mentioned possible return to the economy stimulation. The ADP for March was published on Wednesday (the previous value was 214K; the forecast was 194K). The data came in at the level of 200K.

It is impossible to ignore the growing "appetite for risk": traders are increasing their long positions and high-yield cross-rates that pressured the euro as a funding currency. However the pair euro/dollar strengthened by the end of the trades.

The debt market dynamics pointed to the British currency correction. The 10 years UK government bonds yields reduced in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany) which reduced the attractiveness of the British assets. The Bank of England performance will be the focus of our attention on Thursday. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar decreased.

The yields differential on government bonds of the United States and Japan decreased from November to February inclusively. Retail Trade turnover decreased by 5.4% in Japan. Despite the Japanese and the US retail sales differential indicators at 0% at the end of January, this figure reached the level of 2.2% in favor of the latter in February. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a slight growth.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Janet Yellen’s speech made a huge change in the quotations dynamics – the price flew to the weekly highs in minutes. The positive consumer confidence data in the United States could not support the dollar. Meanwhile, the March index jumped to 96.2 from 92.2 against the forecast of 94.0. Germany published the preliminary March data on the inflation at the level of 0,8% against the forecasted 0,6%.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1350. After breaking 1.1350 the buyers may go to 1.1450.



Pound

General overview

Janet Yellen’s soft tone (Federal Reserve Chairman) was fairly predictable, the US dollar sharply retreated against the pound. The pair flew upwards to the weekly highs. Even though the BoE considers the Brexit one of the main threats for the country's financial stability this time it did not prevent the pound from growing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4400 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The yen weakened amid the weak retail sales data in Japan. The index fell by 2.3% m/m after a reduction by 0.4% in January. The unemployment rate rose to 3.3% from 3.2%. Akie Abe’s statements, the Prime Minister, were another factor that played against the yen. According to the Prime Minister he does not intend to put off the sales tax increase from 8% to 10%, which is scheduled for next year. However, after Janet Yellen’s speech the quotes dramatically changed their vector and rushed south. Only by the end of the trades the pair slightly increased.

The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the level 113.00. We do not exclude the falls to 112.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Apr 03, 2016 1:13 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

04.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar is still under pressure. In general, traders continued to get rid of the American currency after the recent soft comments by Janet Yellen who did not exclude a return to the economy stimulus. The NFP became one of the main events last week. The indicator showed 215,000, the forecast was 205,000, after a growth by 242,000 in February. The USA also published Unemployment Rate for March that came in at the level of 5.0%. The previous value was 4.9%, m / m, the forecast was 4.9%.

German Retail Sales report was a contradictory one. Even though it showed a drop of 0.4% on a monthly basis, it grew on annual basis by 5.4%. Unemployment Rate in Germany in March remained unchanged- 6.2%. Unemployment Change came in at 0. Manufacturing PMI in Germany for March showed 50.7 with a forecast of 50.4. Consumer Price Index in the European Union lost 0.1% in annual terms, which point out the presence of deflation in the European Region. Despite a mixed macroeconomic statistics from the EU, investors interpreted it as a positive sign. The pair euro/dollar closed the trades with a slight growth.

The United Kingdom published the Manufacturing PMI for March that came in at the level of 51.0 (the previous value was 50.8, the forecast was 51.3). The pair pound/dollar decreased.

Japan published the Tankan Non - Manufacturing index for the 1st quarter: the index fell to 22 from 25. Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for the 1st quarter showed a decrease from 12 to 6. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Eurozone published Manufacturing Sector PMI for March at the level of 51.6. The forecast was 51.4. The unemployment rate remained at the level of 10.3%.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450, the next one is 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The cross-rate EUR/GBP rose by 7.4% since the beginning of 2016 which increased the competitiveness of British goods in the Europe. The government bonds yields grew in relation to their counterparts (the US and Germany) which also played into the hands of bulls. However by the end of the week the sterling sharply fell against the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential targets are 1.4240 and 1.4320. If the price falls it will get to 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

Japan published several business activity indexes and none of them came in positive and reached the predicted values. However, the investors were not confused and started a wave of the Japanese yen buying. The dollar fell against the yen when the China's manufacturing data increased the market sentiment, while investors awaited the Non-Farm release in the US.

The price is finding the first support at 111.40, the next one is at 110.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 111.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 110.60 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

Switzerland published business PMI for March. The report showed a growth from 51.6 to 53.2. The retail sales for February showed -0.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9420. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9580, the next one is at 0.9660.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9500. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9420.


*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Apr 04, 2016 1:45 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

According to the US labor market report published last week, the Non-Farm increased by 215 000 in March (the forecast was 205 000). The Average Hourly Earnings grew to 0.3% after falling by 0.1% a month earlier. The overall picture was somewhat blurred by the fact that the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 4.9% to 5.0%. The dollar generally remained under pressure after Yellen’s recent soft comments.

Unemployment Rate in the Euro area fell to a new multi-year low in February, but remained high considering the current economic problems in the region. Eurozone unemployment rate was 10.3% – the lowest since August 2011. The pair euro/dollar is trading in a flat.

The UK published PMI Construction report which remained at the previous level of 54.2, while the forecast was 54.0. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased.

The Japanese Yen moved upwards on Monday. Investors sluggishly reacted to the US labor market reports and Manufacturing PMI. On the other hand the risk appetite increase was a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency. However by the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The escape from the risky assets, as well as favorable statistics from the Eurozone supported the euro. The manufacturing PMI in Germany for March exceeded traders’ expectations. The index reached 50.7 and 51.6 against the forecasts of 50.4 and 51.4. On the other hand the 10-year German government bonds yield decreased in relation to their counterparts (the US and the UK) which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1450 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1550 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

The UK GDP in Q4 was revised upward amid the Construction Sector growth. The business activity index came out more than expected – 54.2 against the forecast of 54.0. The growth of the pair was limited by fears regarding Brexit. The market could not ignore the potential demand on the oil market. The oil price has an influence on the pair GBP/USD movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4240 and 1.4160. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4320, 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

The US economy created 632 000 new jobs in the first quarter that is by 10.8% more than the year before. The quarterly growth has been the highest since 2013. On the other hand, the average wage increased by 0.28% m/m which would help the consumer spending to grow and would increase the inflationary pressures.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 110.60 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 109.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Apr 05, 2016 2:01 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar remained under pressure. Yesterday's trading was ambiguous amid a contradictory of stock indexes and oil prices dynamics. USA weak data did not help the dollar as well. New York ISM index fell from the level of 53.6 to 50.4 vs. the forecast of 54.1.

Rosengren's speech (the Fed representative) slightly supported the dollar. According to Rosengren the regulator may need more than one rate hike. The United States published Non-Manufacturing PMI for March at the level of 54.5 (the previous value was 53.4, the forecast was 54.0).

The German government bonds decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat.

The United Kingdom published Service PMI for March. The index grew to 53.7 from the previous 52.7, in line with expectations. The UK 10-year government bonds yield grew which supported the British currency. However the pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades.

Kuroda (the head of the Bank of Japan) said on Tuesday that the monetary policy alone could not solve all the problems. The dollar/yen continued to decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro was sold off amid the weak data from the euro zone and the dovish comments by the ECB speaker. Praet (the ECB representative) pointed to the risks of keeping a low inflation for a long time. Praet’s performance also put pressure on the single currency. However the pair was trading in a flat. Non-Manufacturing PMI showed 53.1 vs. the forecast of 54.0.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The pair pound/dollar sharply fell. Earlier the pound strengthened amid a strong construction PMI report. The indicator remained at 54.2 vs. the forecast of 54.0. The EURGBP additionally supported the pound. The recent macroeconomic data helped the pound to ignore a possible threat of losing the current rate after the Brexit.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4080 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4000 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The dollar/yen kept falling. Oil prices falling became a catalyst for the decrease. The oil further decrease is high, because the lack of possibility of any production freeze the near future. The investment outflow from Japan may weaken the yen further, still it is not very large as the financial year barely began in the country.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 109.80, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 109.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Apr 06, 2016 2:16 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

There was a pessimistic statement by Lagarde (the head of IMF) regarding the growing risks for the global economy. The Federal Reserve latest comments talked about low expectations regarding the interest rate. Finally the oil price decreased. All of these factors together were the main drivers for the risk escape, and against this background the dollar tried to recover. The Fed minutes publication became the main event of Wednesday. Some traders are afraid that the rate hike in April will show undue urgency. Also there were different opinions about the possibility of interest rates hike in April.

The market reaction to the positive USA reports was weak. We noticed the growing optimism in the bonds market. German 10-year government bonds yield kept growing, which made European assets more attractive for investments. Germany revealed Industrial Production for February. The index came in at -0.5% versus the previous data of 2.3% and the forecast of -1.8%. The pair euro/dollar showed a growth.

Service PMI grew both in the USA and the UK. Both indexes grew in comparison to February still the USA PMI growth rate was higher. The pair pond/dollar increased.

The USD/JPY completely ignored the positive macroeconomic statistics from the US and negative reports from Japan. The pair kept on following the dynamics of the stock markets, especially the Japanese one. The pair decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The weak Service PMI in the Eurozone pressured the euro. The index fell to 53,1 from the previous value of 54,0, analytics expected the index to remain unchanged. The news that OECD lowered its forecasts regarding the German GBP growth in 2016 and 2017 pressured the euro as well. Even though the euro fell amid the mixed economic data it managed to recover some of it losses by the end of the day.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450, the next one is 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The Sterling strengthened by the end of the trades. Earlier the main drivers for the pair sales were: an escape from risks, oil prices decrease and weak Service PMI in the country. The index grew from 52.7 to 53.7 in March when the market expected the growth to 54,0. The bearish movement was obvious in the Bonds Market as well, which caused the UK 10-year government bonds yield to decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4080, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

The decrease of risk appetite is a positive factor for the yen as a funding currency. The Bonds Market supported bears as well. The USA and Japanese government bonds yield differential decreased, which contributed to the inflow of capital into the Japanese assets.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 109.00 and 108.50.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Apr 07, 2016 2:40 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market fell in the middle of the week amid Industrial Production weak report. The index lost 0.5%, the forecast was 1.8%. The published Fed minutes confirmed Yellen’s words regarding the external risks and slowing down with the rate hike. The market lowered its expectations to 46.5% that the Fed would hike the rate in September. At the same time the market gives 50% that the rate hike will happen in November and 52.5% that in December.

The ECB minutes publication and Mario Draghi’s performance became the main events of Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims showed 267K with the forecast of 270K. Consumer Credit Change showed $17,22B with the forecast of 14.74B

The UK published House Prices report for March. The housing prices rose by 10.1%. Economists expected that the growth rate slightly would weaken to 9.5%. The housing prices rose by 2.6% in monthly terms. Analysts expected the prices to grow only by 0.7%.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Mario Draghi’s performance became the main event of Thursday. The euro strengthened against the dollar by 4.6% in the first quarter. That was a negative factor for exports and inflation. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims for April. The Index showed 267K (the previous value was 276K; the forecast was 271K).

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1500.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450, the next one is 1.1500.



Pound

General overview

The bonds market was against the British assets yesterday. The UK government bonds yields decreased. House Prices Index in the UK rose more than expected, reaching 2.6% compared with -1.5% in the previous month. Experts expected a growth rate for the last month by 0.7%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4080, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

The yen freshed 18-month highs when Tokyo shares fell and at the same time the oil prices grew. The demand for safe-haven assets helped to strengthen the yen as well. According to Haruhito Kuroda, the Bank of Japan Governor, the Central Bank will take further action to soften the monetary policy if necessary.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 108.00 and 107.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Apr 10, 2016 1:14 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Based on the Fed minutes, the Central Bank is unlikely to hike the interest rates until June amid the concerns about the global economic growth. The Fed minutes pressured the dollar, still it could show a short-term growth after Janet Yellen’s speech. According to Janet Yellen the rate hike is still part of the regulator’s plans for this year.

The fact that the European Central Bank confirmed its readiness to stimulate the economy if necessary weakened the euro. However by the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly increased.

In economic news, the weak economic reports in the UK did not support the pound which stopped growing against the US dollar. At the same time the dollar remained fragile due to the Fed cautious position regarding the rates hike. By the end of the week the pair pound/dollar showed a growth.

The yen growth was stopped by The Bonds Market growth as well as the possible intervention by the Japanese Central Bank. In addition, the Current Account for February increased to 2,434.9B compared with 520.8B in the previous month. Nevertheless the pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The 10-year government bonds yield in Germany grew which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. German exports increased by 1.3% after falling by 0.6 percent in January. At the same time, import growth slowed in Germany to 0.4% from 1.3% a month earlier.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showы a downward movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1450 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The weak macroeconomic statistics upset the UK investors. Manufacturing Production for February fell due to the seasonal correction reaching 1.1%, and that was much higher than the forecast 0.2%. In addition the Britain Trade Balance Deficit decreased to 11.96 billion pounds in February from 12.16 billion pounds in January.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4080 and 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

Taro Aso’s speech (the Minister of Finance of Japan) was the key event in Japan. The Minister was concerned about the recent Japanese yen strengthening. The high Trade Balance and the profits from touristic business helped Japanese Current Account to grow. The Current Account for February increased to 2,434.9B from the previous value of 520.8B.

The price is finding the first support at 107.40, the next one is at 106.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.20, the next one is at 109.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 107.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 106.60 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss Consumer Prices on annual basis continued to decline in March. The index fell by 0.9% compared with a year earlier. The Consumer Prices on monthly basis has been growing for the second month in a row. The prices rose by 0.3% as expected in March, compared with the growth of 0.2% in February.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9420. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9580, the next one is at 0.9660.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9500. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9420.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Apr 11, 2016 2:18 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

12.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Cautious statements by William Dudley (the Fed representative) pressured the US currency. Dudley called for a cautious and gradual approach towards the interest rate hike.

No important news were published on Monday. Traders focused their attention on the Bonds Market dynamics which sent strong "bearish" signals: the 10-year German government bonds yield fell. The pair EUR/USD is trading in a flat.

The UK published some macroeconomic data, the weak data did not allow the bulls to return to the market. The industrial production volume for February decreased by 0.3%, in addition the index recorded a decrease of 0.1% for the first two months of the year. The same index in the USA for the same period showed an increase by 0.1%. Although the difference was small, still it was not in favor of the British currency. However by the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD strengthened.

Bearish sentiment within the USDJPY is very strong. The trading is defined by "risk appetite". The pair closed the trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

No important news were published on Monday. Earlier the published Trade Balance in Germany for February supported the euro. The index grew to 19.8B Euros from 18.7B. Imports and exports increased by 0.4% and 1.3% vs. the forecast of -0, 3% and + 0.5% respectively.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1450 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

Investors planned to update the March maximum of oil prices that will have a positive impact on the pound. Bonds market showed a growing optimism: the UK government bond yields grew.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4160 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4080 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The dollar got under pressure after Fed of in Atlanta and J.P Morgan Bank forecasts publication. The first one downgraded the forecast for the US economic growth to + 0.1%. Meanwhile, Morgan Bank revised its forecast to + 0.2% from + 0.7%. These forecasts pressured the dollar. Risky assets sales once again supported the yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 107.40, the next one is at 106.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.20, the next one is at 109.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 107.40 and 106.60.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Apr 12, 2016 2:01 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

13.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The bullish sentiment in the commodity market had a negative impact on the dollar, due to the cost decrease of raw materials which is in the US currency. The oil and base metals confidently finished the first part of the week in the "green zone". Only by the end of the trades the dollar slightly strengthened.

The US and German government bonds yields differential decreased which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. On the other hand, the growth of pessimism in the world leading stock markets also played into the hands of the bulls (because the euro is one of the funding currencies). However the pair EUR/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The UK inflation report became the main event of Tuesday. The gasoline prices growth and the average weekly earnings increase had its positive impact on the British bonds market. The 10-year government bonds yield increased by 8 bp. The UK consumer price index for March rose by 0.5% y/y that was the maximum value since December, 2014. The trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a slight growth.

Japan and the United States did not publish any important macroeconomic statistics. The pair USD/JPY showed an upward correction.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Even though the inflation in Germany for March accelerated its growth, the Producer Price index was below the ECB target level. The consumer prices in Germany rose by 0.8%, the index rose by 0.1% over the year. Low rates of inflation in the Euro area forced the ECB to take additional measures to bring the inflation rate up to 2%.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

The price is on the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1450 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1550 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

The consumer price index in Britain rose by 0.5% y/y. According to Mark Carney (the Bank of England Governor) they need to accelerate the pace of wage growth and take the inflation to the target level of 2% before any rate increase. We believe that the Bank of England will keep the rates unchanged until the referendum in June. Uncertainty about the referendum results will slow down the economic growth for the next few months.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

The price is on the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4240, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

The pair tried to strengthen its positions. Haruhiko Kuroda (the Bank of Japan Governor) announced his intention to launch additional measures. However, the yen continues to ignore any authorities attempts to pressure the currency. In the US, declared on import and export price indices (0,2% m/m and 0,0% m/m against the forecasted 1,0% m/m и -0,2% m/m correspondingly).

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 108.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 107.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Apr 13, 2016 1:19 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

14.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar continued its attempts to recover. The latest Fed hawkish statements supported the dollar. In particular, Jeffrey Lacker (the Fed representative) said that the Fed is still planning four rates hike in 2016. The US currency got an additional support when the Fitch agency confirmed the US rating at AAA.

Retail Sales (in fact -0,3%m/m against the forecasted 0,1%m/m and previous -0,1% m/m) and the Producer Price index (in fact -0,1%m/m against the forecasted 0,2%m/m and previous -0,2%m/m) for March became the main events of Wednesday.

The inflation data in Germany did not have any impact on the quotations. In March, the Consumer Price index remained at + 0.8% m/m and + 0.3% y/y. The growth of stock indices caused the euro sales. The pair euro/dollar decreased.

The UK inflation positive report for March supported the positive trend in the Bonds Market. The yields differential on government bonds (the United States and the United Kingdom) have been reducing for the last three trading days. This news increased the attractiveness of the British assets. However the trades on the pair pound/dollar closed with a decrease.

The 10-year government bonds yield (the US and Japanese) expanded which increased the attractiveness of the US assets providing support for the dollar in the pair USD/JPY. This pair showed a growth.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The FED will hold its regular meeting on the monetary policy in late April. The more positive releases we get, the more chances we have that the monetary authorities will seriously talk about the rising interest rates in the medium term. On the other hand, the Eurozone revealed Industrial Production report which came out worse than expected: -0.8% m/m vs. the forecast of -0.7% m/m. Patrick Harker (the Philadelphia Fed Governor) did not exclude that the rates would be raised three times this year.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1260 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The positive UK statistics supported the pound. The inflation unexpectedly accelerated to + 0.4% m/m and + 0.5% y/y vs. the forecast of + 0.3% and + 0.4% respectively. The commodity market dynamics also played into the bulls’ hands: oil and metals were in steady demand. Then the pair GBP/USD decreased amid the dollar’s strengthening.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4160 and 1.4080.



Yen

General overview

There were two factors that had pressured the yen: the yen could not resist the growth of Nikkei, and secondly, it fell after Japanese Ministry of Finance comments regarding the possible measures launching aimed at limiting the growth of the national currency.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Apr 14, 2016 1:58 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar recovered against the most of its opponents. The positive Trade Balance in China heated the interest in the risky assets, mainly in the US currency. The USA published the Inflation data: 0,1%m/m against the forecasted 0,2%m/m. The Initial Jobless Claims showed 253К against the forecast of 270К.

The government bonds yields differential (the United States and Germany) expanded in the bonds market. The Eurozone published the inflation data for March: CPI came in at + 1.2% m/m, that coincided with the forecast. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat after a decrease.

The Bank of England kept its monetary policy unchanged. The UK 10-year government bonds yield decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the British assets. The pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The interest in the yen faded amid the demand for the risky assets. A further verbal intervention made by the Bank of Japan, the regulator again hinted at the possible expansion of its economic measures. However by the end of the trades the dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The aggressive Fed statements as well as China positive export statistics supported the interest in the US currency. At the same time the euro fell amid the positive USA macroeconomic data and the negative statistics of the Eurozone. The Industrial Production in the region fell by 0.8% in February against a growth by 1.9% in January.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The GBPUSD started a correction after three days of an impressive growth. The Bank of England published its minutes and announced the interest rate decision (the rate was left at the same level). Brexit theme due to its uncertainty continued to pressure the currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.4080. If the price falls it will get to 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

Haruhiko Kuroda’s comments (the Bank of Japan Governor) restrained the growth of the yen. According to Haruhiko Kuroda the Central Bank is ready to soften the monetary policy if needed, having many stimulus instruments to achieve the 2% inflation target.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 109.00 and 108.20.



Franc

General overview

The dollar significantly rose against the Swiss franc amid the stock indices strengthening and the increased interest in the risky assets. The weaker-than-expected data on US retail sales was not able to change investors’ sentiment.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Apr 17, 2016 1:33 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market volatility decreased before the summit in Doha, its results may impact the risk assets. In addition, the US currency got under pressure after the Fed comments and the weak inflation data from the US. According to D. Lockhart (Chief Executive Officer of the Fed of Atlanta) he would not vote for a rate hike in April, supporting a cautious approach to the monetary policy tightening due to low consumer spending. By the end of the trades the market volatility increased.

The United States published Industrial Production volume for March. The index came in at the level of -0,6% m/m (the previous value was -0.50% m/m, the forecast was -0.60% m/m) and the Consumer Sentiment index (from the University of Michigan) for April. The index showed 89.7 (the previous value was 91.0, the forecast was 92.3).

The Euro area inflation data had no significant effect on the EUR/USD (the index reached the zero value after falling by 0.1% y/y). The Euro zone published Trade Balance for February. The index showed 19.0 billion euro, the previous value was 20.0 billions. The pair euro/dollar showed a growth.

Bank of England did not bring any surprises, leaving the rate unchanged at the level of 0,5%. The Bank pointed to the risks related to the Brexit. The pound remained calm to the regulator’s statements. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar sharply increased.

The weak US retail sales, PPI and CPI reports disappointed investors. The US and Japanese government bond yields decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the US assets. The pair dollar/yen decreased by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The 10-year government bonds yield in Germany grew, which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. Traders expect any substantial statements from the ECB on Thursday April 21st, which is likely to confirm that the recent announced monetary policy easing measures will be effective during the inflation growth.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1260 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell when the IMF changed the forecast of UK GDP for the current year from 2.2% to 1.9%. The IMF again reminded about the consequences of London Brexit which continue to pressure the market. The strong economic reports could not support the pound: the CPI accelerated to 0.5% - this is the highest level in the past 15 months, the Core Inflation grew from 1.2% to 1.5%. Only by the end of the trades the pound strengthened amid the dollar’s weakness.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.4240. We do not exclude the falls to 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

The weak USA inflation report slightly weakened the JPY/USD. In Japan the Industrial Production decreased by 5.2%. This news supported the dollar. However the pair decreased amid the USA weak statistics.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break below 108.20 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 107.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc


General overview

The USD/CHF remained at the same place. Earlier the dollar stabilized against the majors when D. Lockhart (Chief Executive Officer of the Fed of Atlanta) stated that the GBP data was disappointing. Still they forecast the GBP will show a growth at around 2%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Apr 18, 2016 2:15 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar weakened amid the risk aversion in the stock markets. The interest in the safe assets grew amid the fall of oil prices. The oil prices fell after negative results of the oil exporters' meeting in Doha. The weaker-than-expected data from the US pressured the dollar as well. The USA Industrial Production fell by 0.6% against the expected 0.1%, Capacity Utilization fell to 74.8% from 75.4%, and the preliminary Consumer Confidence index for April (Reuters/Michigan) fell to 89.7 against the forecast of 92.

The fall of the risk appetite supported the euro as a funding currency. The growth slowdown of the Chinese GDP and the weak economic data from the United States cooled-down the interest in the risky assets. The main factors that caused the dollar fall were: China economic growth decrease to its lowest level and moderately negative data on the US inflation. The pair EUR/USD strengthened.

Traders took profit and closed their orders in oil contracts that caused a technical correction to the psychological level of $ 40 per barrel. Low energy prices n traditionally had a negative impact on the British currency. Then the oil price increased and the pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a growth.

On Monday, William Dudley (the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York) said that the US labor market steadily recovered and the Central Bank would gradually and cautiously continue normalizing the interest rates. There were negative reports on Inflation, Retail Sales and Industrial Production last week. These factors also played into the bears’ hands in the pair USD/JPY. After a gap downward the USD/JPY grew by the end of the trades.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Even though the market does not expect any sensation from the ECB meeting on April 21st, it could have a great impact on the EUR/USD. According to Mario Draghi the weakness of emerging markets, uncertain prospects of oil and geopolitical risks hamper European HICP and push the ECB to take action.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell on Monday amid bad news from Doha and deepening fears regarding Brexit. The official campaign for the referendum began last Friday. The two sides are now making efforts to convince the public about the merits of their point of view. According to George Osborne (the UK Finance Minister) the growth of Britain economy will be significantly reduced if the country leaves the EU.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4320 and 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen increased. It should be noted that the demand for the safe-heaven yen jumped to near 18-month high against the dollar, as oil prices collapsed when the largest oil producers failed to reach an agreement. The yen generally strengthened since the beginning of the year, as investors' concerns about the policy of negative interest rates in Japan and Europe led to an increase in demand for safe assets.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 109.00. If the price falls it will get to 108.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Apr 19, 2016 2:10 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The recent risk aversion in the Forex market was caused by the prices collapse whi. The news that exporters did not come to an agreement in Doha to freeze production at January levels disappointed the energy market. Later the situation was fundamentally changed. Traders’ sentiment was improved by the aggressive correction of the “black gold”, together with the positive comments from the Fed (the regulator was confident that the inflation would return to the target level).

Consumer Spending reports in the United States did not allow us to expect a strong data on the building permits volume. Against the background of a low base from December to February (decreased by 9.19%) the index is expected to display growth within the median forecasts at the level of 1,200M. However the data came in at the level of 1,086M.

Germany and Eurozone published Economic Sentiment for April. Economic Sentiment in Germany came in at 11.2 with the forecast of 8.0. The index in Eurozone came in at 21.5 with the expectations of 13.9. The pair EUR/USD finished the day with a growth.

The UK 10-year government bonds yield grew in the bonds market which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. The pair pound/dollar showed a growth.

Kuroda (the BoJ Governor) in his interview to Wall Street Journal defended the negative interest rates. According to him the Regulator will low the long-term interest rates by 20 basis points. He also hinted that the Bank of Japan might cut the interest rates further. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro grew amid the risk aversion. Now the euro dynamics depends rather on the market sentiment than on European economic statistics and senior European officials’ comments.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1350 and 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

The pound may remain volatile as the possibility of a rate hike was reduced by the Bank of England. While taking a decision on the interest rates last week, the English regulator also discussed the risks for the country economy in case of Brexit. According to M. Carney speech on Tuesday the impact of Brexit would not be helpful and it would make a financing of the payment balance more costly.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4400 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

After a strong recovery from 17-month low the pair returned into a narrow range. The US published Building Permits (the index came in at 1.086M, the forecast was 1,200M) and Housing Starts data (the index came in at 1.089M, the forecast was 1.170M).

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 108.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 107.40 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Apr 20, 2016 1:37 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

21.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar was under pressure after the weak US statistics publication. In March, Building Permits showed 1.086M vs. the forecast of 1.200M and the previous value 1.177M. Housing Starts index also disappointed the market, falling to 1.089M from 1.194M. The following data supported the US currency: Existing Home Sales showed 5.33M with the forecast of 5.30M.

This week macroeconomic statistics reduced the US and Germany government bonds yield differential, which played into the euro bulls’ hands. ZEW index for April reached the maximum level over the past three months amid decreasing fears about the reduction of Chinese GDP. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased.

Claimant Count Change for March in the UK grew to 6,7K while the Unemployment Rate remained around 5.1% in February. Average Earnings excluding Bonus for February remained at 2.2%, Average Earnings including Bonus including bonuses fell to 1.8% from 2.1%. The number of unemployed increased by 21 000 people reaching 1.7M. Total wages and salaries in the private sector also slowed down to 1.9%, while the monthly rate fell by 0.9% (the lowest level since July 2014). The pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat.

On the one hand, the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US and the "bullish" sentiment in the commodity market played against the dollar. On the other hand, the "risk appetite" was preserved, that was a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency. The USD / JPY strengthened by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In Germany, the Producer Price index was in a flat from February to March. Still the index fell by 3.1% y/y (the strongest drop since January 2010). Economists expected a growth of 0.1% m/m, and a decline of 2.9% y/y. According to the latest reports, the upward pressure on consumer prices from the manufacturers is limited. The consumer climate in 28 EU countries decreased by 3.2 points from 12,2 points in December 2015 to 9 points in March 2016.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The GBP/USD formed a consolidation. Earlier the pair grew confidently amid the oil prices gain and the interest in risky assets. The number of Brexit opponents recently declined. Probably, the recent government warnings about the enormous impact of the country exit from the European Union had a positive effect on the British people.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.4400. If the price falls it will get to 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

The absence of interest in buying the yen became the driver of an upward correction. The correction turned out to be weak amid the risky assets popularity. A limited growth pointed to the weak position of the US currency, which remained under the pressure.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Apr 21, 2016 2:14 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The ECB meeting and M. Draghi press-conference became the main events of Thursday. The regulator left the rate unchanged at 0%. According to Draghi he does not exclude a transfer to the negative rates as well. The soft policy will continue until the inflation reaches 2%.

The pound fell against the US dollar after the disappointing retail sales release, that undermined the optimism about the strength of the British economy. The total volume of retail sales for March was expected with a decrease by 0.1%, but it fell even lower to 1.3%.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index for April decreased and showed -1.6. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 247K against the forecast of 263K.

The yen slightly rose even against the background of weaker-than-expected Trade Balance release. The Balance (taking into account seasonal correction) amounted 755,0B against the expectations of 834,6B. Exports grew from -4.0% y / y to -6.8% y / y, imports grew from -14.2% y / y to 14.9% y / y. Kuroda’s statements regarding further policy easing if necessary supported the yen as well.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB meeting and M. Draghi press-conference were the focus of our attention yesterday. The regulator left the rates unchanged. The euro strengthened, which had a negative impact on exporters. Manufacturing PMI declined, and Net Exports rose by 25.2B which is by 6.66% less than the year before.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the mark of 1.1260, it might continue the downward movement. The potential target is 1.1150. In the alternative scenario, we will see a move to 1.1500.



Pound

General overview

The UK government bonds yield reduced in the Bonds market which decreased the attractiveness of the British assets. The UK retail sales fell by 1.3% in March after falling by 0.5% in February. Analysts expected a decrease of 0.1%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect a decrease towards the level of 1.4160. If the pair gets below the Cloud and consolidates there we will see a deeper move towards 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

Merchandise Trade Balance showed 348.4B in the first quarter. The same index showed a negative balance of 1.379T in 2015. The volume of orders for equipment component continued to show a negative dynamics in March. The index showed a decline of 21.2% y / y. The debt market reacted to these reports with the differential expansion of US and Japanese government bonds yields.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair consolidates above 109.80 it may go higher to 110.60. Otherwise, the pair will decrease to 108.00.



Franc

General overview

In March, the Trade Surplus amounted 2.163M compared with the previous data of 4.022M. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 247K against the forecast of 263K.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9700, the next one is at 0.9650. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9800.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair consolidates above 0.9750 it may go higher to 0.9800. Otherwise, the pair will decrease to 0.9650.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Apr 24, 2016 1:17 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Last Friday the dollar rose against major currencies to weekly highs amid the disappointing statistics in the Eurozone. The United States published Manufacturing PMI for April. The index came in at 50.8, the forecast was 52.0.

According to Markit research Group PMI composite index in the Euro zone fell to 53.0 in April from 53.1 in March. The same index in Germany rose to 51.9 in April from 50.7 in the previous month, while Service PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.1.

The speculations that the Bank of Japan may introduce new stimulus measures at the next meeting on April 27-28 continued to press the yen. The Central Bank may extend the program of buying assets or promote the interest rates even further into a negative territory.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Manufacturing PMI in Germany rose more than expected last month. The index showed 51.9 compared with 50.7 in the previous month. Experts expected the index to grow to 51.0.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

We see a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be continued till the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair broke through the first target, the level of 1.1260 and kept going down. We believe the south movement will be continued. The potential target is 1.1150. As a correction we could see a return to 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

The British news background was empty last Friday. The market paid attention to the "black gold" dynamics where the price showed a correction. Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count was published. The report again showed the reduction of the drilling rigs in the United States. The index showed 343 versus the previous figure of 351.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The growth will be continued while the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price made new attempts to grow. If the price consolidates above 1.4400 the growth will be continued to 1.4480. We will sell if the price gets below 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

The US and Japanese government bonds yields differential expanded which increased the attractiveness of the US assets. The Bank of Japan plans to introduce negative interest rates on some loans.

The price is finding the first support at 111.40, the next one is at 110.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. Both lines form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be continued until the price gets below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is heading towards the resistance of 112.20. Still the USD/JPY may turn down to correct. The correction targets are 111.40 and 110.60.



Franc

General overview

The dollar rose against the Swiss franc at the end of the week. The economic calendar was empty and the market paid attention to the news from the USA. In the US, Manufacturing PMI decreased. The index showed 50.8 with the forecast of 52.0.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9700. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9800, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be continued while the price stays above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is growing to 0.9900. We expect a correction to 0.9750.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Apr 25, 2016 2:30 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market started the week rather good. Trading was in the absence of any drivers. The United States published New Home Sales report in March (the previous value was 512K; the forecast was 527K). The data came in at the level of 511K.

Germany published Business Climate for April (106.6 versus the forecast of 107.0). The index low forecast is due to its close correlation with the composite PMI. Which prevented a better forecast for Business climate, taking into account the negative dynamics of the latter. However the pair EUR/USD increased.

The pair GBP/USD started the week with a growth. Oil prices successfully completed the previous trading week in the "green zone", despite Doha summit failure. The oil market bullish sentiment had a positive impact on the British currency (as expected). In spite of the oil prices decrease the GBP/USD grew.

The USDJPY rallied amid a sharp collapse of the yen in response to the news from the Bank of Japan. According to the market rumors the regulator is considering the possibility of issuing loans with a negative rate. These conversations provoked the Japanese currency sell-off. Nevertheless, as a result the USD/JPY fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The fact that the ECB left the interest rates unchanged had an impact on the euro. The euro fell in response to this news. The 10-year German government bonds yield decreased in the Bonds Market. Still the pair EUR/USD could slightly strengthen in the beginning of the week. The Fed meeting will be the focus of our attention this week.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential targets are 1.1260 and 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The sterling grew after Obama’s speech (the US President). According to Barack Obama the UK will get in the "end of line" concerning the trade agreement with the United States if the country leaves the EU alliance. The UK GDP report for the first quarter is the main event in the country for this week. The report is to be published on Wednesday. The forecast is 0.4%, the previous value was 0.6%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4560, the next one is 1.4640.



Yen

General overview

The dollar declined against the yen on Monday leaving three-week highs. The market is waiting for the Fed meeting and BoJ meeting.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support levels of 110.60. We do not exclude the growth to 111.40 and 112.20.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Apr 26, 2016 3:52 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the economic calendar was full of American releases. Durable Goods Orders report for March was published the first (0.8% vs forecast 1.8%). Consumer Confidence for April came in at 94.2 (the previous value was 94.2, the forecast was 96.0). Traders expected to see a hint regarding the state of the economy before the Fed decision on Wednesday, which could have an impact on any further movement of the dollar. Meanwhile investors avoided opening new positions before the Fed meeting.

There was no important news in the Eurozone yesterday. After a strong growth the pair euro/dollar slightly decreased by the end of the trades.

The UK published Mortgage Approvals index for March (45.1K vs the forecast 46.0K). The pair pound/dollar showed a growth but by the end of the trades it slightly fell.

The interest in the safe assets triggered the buying of yen. The rumours that the BoJ won’t apply new soft measures supported the yen as well. We believe that the regulator will evaluate more carefully the effect of the running measures and will apply the new ones only in June. The pair dollar/yen strengthened.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened amid the interest in the safe assets buying. The euro ignored the IFO release and continued slowly growing. In the Bonds Market, the 10-year German government bonds yield rose which increased the attractiveness of the European assets.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1260 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1150 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

In the Bonds Market the 10-year government bonds yield differential (the US and the UK) continued to decline which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. In addition, the release of negative macroeconomic data from the United States contributed to a further decrease of the differential.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The Bonds Market sent "bullish signals": the US and Japanese securities yield differential expanded again which became a bullish factor for the US currency. The oil market growth can become the driver for the dollar to grow.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 112.20 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 113.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Apr 27, 2016 3:51 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar remained stable to other majors on Wednesday preparing for the final Federal Reserve System political statements. Investors focused on the outcome of the political meeting waiting for any hints regarding the interest rates change in June. The Fed kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.

Consumer Confidence in Germany significantly improved (9.7 versus the previous 9.4). Consumers believe that the German economy will recover in the coming months and expect its moderate recovery. The pair euro/dollar slightly strengthened.

The pound stopped the growth when the market found out that the UK economy had grown by 0.4%, in line with economists' expectations, but slowed to 0.6% in the previous quarter. The UK economic growth in the first quarter was 2.1%, (on an annual terms) similar to the previous quarter and slightly higher than the expected 2.0%. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

The pair dollar/yen increased by end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In the bond market the government bonds yield differential (the US and Germany) decreased, which was a "bullish" factor for the euro. The commodity market showed an upward trend that traditionally had a negative impact on the dollar as commodity prices are in the US currency. The US Fed meeting was the focus of the market attention.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.1260 further on we expect a downward movement to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The UK Gross Domestic Product rose up by 0.4%, as expected. The UK economy showed a growth of 0.6%. In the Bonds Market, the 10-year UK government bonds yield increased which slightly supported the demand for the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4480 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

All Industry Activity Index (m / m) decreased for the last month (-1.2% vs. the forecast of -1.3%). These data were revised downward to 2.0%. Experts expected the index to decline to 1.3% over the past month. The trading activity was low as traders waited for the Fed and the Bank of Japan meeting outcome.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 111.40 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 112.20 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Apr 28, 2016 2:39 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Eurozone published the inflation report for Germany (0,2%) and Economic Sentiment Indicator (103,9). In addition, Germany published Unemployment Rate which remained unchanged at 6.2% (in line with the forecasts). Unemployment Change showed -16K.

The UK published Nationwide Housing Prices for April (on a monthly and annual basis). The index showed 0.2% m/m after the previous 0.8% m/m.

The US GDP for the 1st quarter became the main event of the day (the 1st assessment). The index came in at 0.5%, the forecast was 0.7% vs. 1.4% in the 4th quarter. Initial Jobless Claims showed 257K (the previous value was 247K, the forecast was 252K).

The Bank of Japan did not change its monetary policy and did not extend the stimulus rate. The Central Bank is still focused on the increase in the monetary base by 80 trillion yen per year, the deposit rate remained unchanged at - 0.1%.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Unemployment Change in Germany showed -16K, the previous value was -3K. Experts had expected a growth by 4K. Unemployment rate remained at the same level of 6,2%, which corresponded to the forecasts.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1260 soon. The next target will be 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

Nationwide Housing Prices in the UK amounted to 0,2% compared with 0,8% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth by 0,4%. The US published the GDP report for April. The data came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the previous value was 1,4% q/q, the forecast was 0,7% q/q).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The yen grew when the Bank of Japan did not change the interest rates, as expected. The regulator decided not to apply any further negative interest rates. Industrial Production for March rose by 3.6% on monthly basis, while we expected a growth by 2.9%. Retail Sales fell by 1.1% year on year, although a drop of 1.5 % was expected.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 107.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 106.60.



Franc

General overview

The USA GDP for the 1st quarter was the main event of Thursday. The release came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the forecast was 0,7% q/q, the previous value was 1,4% q/q). Initial Jobless Claims number was the focus of our attention as well. The data came in at the level of 257K (the forecast was 260K the previous value was 247K).

The first support lies at 0.9660 and then at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9580. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Apr 28, 2016 2:41 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Eurozone published the inflation report for Germany (0,2%) and Economic Sentiment Indicator (103,9). In addition, Germany published Unemployment Rate which remained unchanged at 6.2% (in line with the forecasts). Unemployment Change showed -16K.

The UK published Nationwide Housing Prices for April (on a monthly and annual basis). The index showed 0.2% m/m after the previous 0.8% m/m.

The US GDP for the 1st quarter became the main event of the day (the 1st assessment). The index came in at 0.5%, the forecast was 0.7% vs. 1.4% in the 4th quarter. Initial Jobless Claims showed 257K (the previous value was 247K, the forecast was 252K).

The Bank of Japan did not change its monetary policy and did not extend the stimulus rate. The Central Bank is still focused on the increase in the monetary base by 80 trillion yen per year, the deposit rate remained unchanged at - 0.1%.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Unemployment Change in Germany showed -16K, the previous value was -3K. Experts had expected a growth by 4K. Unemployment rate remained at the same level of 6,2%, which corresponded to the forecasts.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1260 soon. The next target will be 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

Nationwide Housing Prices in the UK amounted to 0,2% compared with 0,8% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth by 0,4%. The US published the GDP report for April. The data came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the previous value was 1,4% q/q, the forecast was 0,7% q/q).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The yen grew when the Bank of Japan did not change the interest rates, as expected. The regulator decided not to apply any further negative interest rates. Industrial Production for March rose by 3.6% on monthly basis, while we expected a growth by 2.9%. Retail Sales fell by 1.1% year on year, although a drop of 1.5 % was expected.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 107.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 106.60.



Franc

General overview

The USA GDP for the 1st quarter was the main event of Thursday. The release came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the forecast was 0,7% q/q, the previous value was 1,4% q/q). Initial Jobless Claims number was the focus of our attention as well. The data came in at the level of 257K (the forecast was 260K the previous value was 247K).

The first support lies at 0.9660 and then at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9580. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun May 01, 2016 1:48 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

02.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

Last Friday was filled with events. The US published Personal Consumption Expenditures (at the forecasted level of 0,1%), Personal Spending (0,1% against the forecasted 0,2%), and Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (77,6 against the forecasted 80,2)

Despite the strong economic growth in the region, the euro lost some gains against the US dollar, amid the weak inflation report in the Eurozone. The index fell to -0.2% y/y in April after the previous 0.0% y/y. The Eurozone GDP grew both in annual and quarterly terms in April: 1.6% after 1.6% before and 0.6% after the previous 0.3%.

The pound stopped growing against the US dollar. The sterling fell after the ambiguous economic data from three-month high. The UK published Net Lending to Individuals and Mortgage Approvals reports (1,883B, 71.360K respectively).

There was a day off in Japan. The USD/JPY pair continued falling after the Bank of Japan decision to maintain its current monetary policy. That was contrary to the market expectations, which expected a further easing.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview
According to the Eurostat the Consumer Price index fell by 0.2% in the Eurozone this month. The market expected a decline of 0.1%, after a zero growth in March. Gross Domestic Product grew by 0.6% in the first quarter (forecast 0.4%, previous 0.3%).

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The UK government bonds yields grew which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. However, the Britain published a number of weak reports: Net Lending to Individuals increased by 9.3B in March, the expected data was £5.0B.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to the level of 1.4670. We do not exclude the falls to 1.4560.



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan did not increase the current easing program, and investors began to leave the Japanese market in panic. The pair dollar/yen sharply fell. The dollar fell when the Fed hinted that it might postpone the rates hike. Last Friday Japan had the day off. Meanwhile, the United States published Core Personal Consumption Expenditure for March (the previous value was 0.2% m/m, the data came in at the forecasted level 0.1% m/m).

The price is finding the first support at 106.60, the next one is at 105.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.40, the next one is at 108.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 106.60 breakthrough down the way to the support 105.80 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

Thomas Jordan (the National Bank of Switzerland Governor) gave a speech last Friday. Switzerland published KOF Leading Indicator (102.7 vs. the forecast 102.8). The USA Personal Income for March came in at 0.4%, Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April showed 89.0 vs. the forecast 90.0.

The first support lies at 0.9580 and then at 0.9500. The first resistance stands at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9580. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon May 02, 2016 1:48 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

03.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar fell from eight-month lows against the other major currencies. The dollar was under pressure after the political decisions of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve System. The event calendar was empty yesterday amid the Labor Day celebration. According to William Dudley (the New York Fed Governor) the Fed should have more powers to provide emergency financial support for investment firms in case of liquidity problems.

The EUR/USD set new session highs after Manufacturing PMI report in the Eurozone and Germany. The Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone came in at 51.7. Manufacturing PMI in Germany showed 51.8. Mario Draghi gave a speech at the Asian Development Bank conference in Asia. According to him there is no alternative to the soft monetary policy until we see positive prospects of the world economy.

In Britain, the markets did not work amid Early May celebration.

On Monday, the yen rose to new 18-month highs. The dollar fell when the market found out that the Japanese regulator would not intervene the foreign exchange market to weaken the national currency. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2 versus the previous value of 48.0.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Manufacturing PMI in Germany decreased contrary to our expectations. According to Markit Research Group the indicator showed 51.8 compared with 51.9 in the previous month (seasonally corrected). Experts expected the index at the previous level of 51.9.

The first support lies at 1.1450 and then at 1.1350. The first resistance stands at 1.1550, the next one is at 1.1650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1650.



Pound

General overview

According to the international rating agency S&P, if the UK leaves the EU alliance it might loss its AAA rating. The GBP/USD grew amid the general dollar weakness and speculation that the United Kingdom will remain within the EU. The UK market was closed yesterday amid Early May celebration.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4880.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4760 and 1.4880.



Yen

General overview

The USA Manufacturing PMI for April rose to 51.8. Traders expected the index to decrease to 51 versus 51.5 in March. Manufacturing PMI in Japan exceeded our expectations and rose to 48.2 vs. the forecast of 48.0.

The price is finding the first support at 105.80, the next one is at 105.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.60, the next one is at 107.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 105.80 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 105.00. We do not exclude the upward bounce to 107.70.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue May 03, 2016 2:20 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

04.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The USA published some minor reports: ISM New York and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism indices (48,7 against the forecasted 46,6). We single out only one news that might be interesting: Dennis Lockhart’s speech (the Fed representative). According to Lockhart the price strengthening can be seen right now, but it is too early to decide whether this is sufficient to hike the rate. The decision regarding the rate hike will be taken at the next meeting in June.

Producer Price Index in Eurozone for March showed -4.2% (the forecast was -4.3%, the previous value was -4.2%). The index rose for the first time this the year. That is a signal that the inflation is unlikely to fall in the coming months.

On Tuesday, the pound decreased from its four months high when the UK manufacturing activity fell in April for the first time over the past three years (49.2 from 51.0 in March, vs the forecasted 51.2). The published index increased concerns about the prospects for growth in the second quarter.

Bank of Japan did not work on Tuesday amid the celebration of the Constitution Day.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Eurozone did not publish any interesting reports on Tuesday. Producer Price index (PPI) for the last month rose more than expected (0.3% vs the forecast 0.1%). According to the report, it was 0.3% compared with -0.7% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth rate by 0.1%. The devaluation of the Chinese yuan supported the euro as well. By the end of the trades the euro fell.

The first support lies at 1.1450 and then at 1.1350. The first resistance stands at 1.1550, the next one is at 1.1650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1550 and 1.1650.



Pound

General overview

Markit Manufacturing PMI in the UK weakened to 49.2 in April, falling to its lowest level since February 2013. This was lower than the revised value of 50.7 in March and weaker than economists' estimate of 51.2. Manufacturing remains one of the most volatile sectors of the economy, and continues to face challenges: weak demand in the Asian markets and the weakening of the euro area.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.4480. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

Yesterday Japanese banks were closed; the country celebrated a national holiday - Constitution Day. This day off turned traders’ attention to the American news flow where the Fed representatives William Dudley gave his speech. According to Williams he agrees with the decision not to raise the interest rates this year. He also expects that the United States will show a growth of 2% this year.

The price is finding the first support at 105.80, the next one is at 105.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.60, the next one is at 107.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential targets are 106.60 and 107.40. If the price falls it will get to 105.80 and 105.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed May 04, 2016 2:24 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar managed to recover when traders started to take profits before Non-Farm release. The USA published ADP Employment Change (156K vs. the forecast 196K). Non-Manufacturing PMI from ISM came in at 55.7 vs. the forecast of 54.7.

The latest Eurozone data showed a strong production growth in April (Markit Composite PMI 53.0, in the line with the expectations).

The British pound decreased on Wednesday and the pair lost more than 200 points. PMI Construction in the UK Britain fell in April to 52.0 (three-year low) from the previous 54.2. The index fell even though the general business activity index is in the “green zone”.

The USD/JPY is still low volatile amid the day off in Japan.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Retail sales in the Eurozone fell after three months of growth (Retail sales -0.5% m/m in March, vs. expectation 0.1% vs. +0.3% m/m in February). Services PMI decreased contrary to expectations. (53.1 vs. previous 53.2). Experts expected the index to remain at 53.2.

The first support lies at 1.1450 and then at 1.1350. The first resistance stands at 1.1550, the next one is at 1.1650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1550 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1650.



Pound

General overview

PMI Construction in the UK fell last month to 52.0 (seasonally corrected) from 54.2 in March. Economists forecasted a decline to 54.0. The USA published Markit Services PMI (52.8 vs. expectation 52.1) and ADP Employment Change report (156K vs. forecast 196K).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4670.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4400, the next one is 1.4320. We do not exclude the growth to 1.4560 and 1.4670.



Yen

General overview

The pair retreated from 18 months maximum after a strong rally of the Japanese currency. The dynamics of the dollar against the yen may be volatile the next few days until Japanese traders return from the holidays. The yen still receives some support after the Bank of Japan decision to leave its monetary policy unchanged.

The price is finding the first support at 106.60, the next one is at 105.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.40, the next one is at 108.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 106.60. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 105.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu May 05, 2016 2:37 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The USA statistics was the focus of our attention yesterday (Initial Jobless Claims 274K vs forecast 260K). Today we expect Non-Farm release.

Europe celebrated the Ascension Day and many European Central Banks did not work. Despite the day off the market was volatile and the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD decreased.

The UK published Services PMI that fell more than expected (52.3 vs. expectations 53.5).

Friday is the first working day in Japan after the long holidays. We expect a sharp growth of the yen. Even now, when the US stock market decreased, the USD/JPY showed a growth.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

According to the European Central Bank the euro area continued its recovery, still downward risks remained. No important news was published amid the Ascension Day celebration in Europe.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1350 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1260 will be opened.

Pound

General overview

The pound is expected to remain under pressure. Service PMI showed a decrease (52.3 vs. forecast 53.5). According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number grew to 274K last week.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4400 and 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

Japan celebrated Children's Day and its markets were closed. Services PMI in China by Caixin was the focus of investors' attention (51.8 vs. expectations 52.6).

The price is finding the first support at 106.60, the next one is at 105.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.40, the next one is at 108.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 108.20 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 109.00.

Franc

General overview

Switzerland celebrated Feast of the Ascension; its markets were closed. Initial Jobless Claims were under focus yesterday (274K vs. expectations 260K).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement, forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun May 08, 2016 2:05 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

09.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

Last week the US Federal Reserve Bank did not exclude the possibility of raising the interest rate at next meeting in June. The US labor reports were last week key events. The USA published Non-Farm (160K vs. expectations 202K). Unemployment Rate remained at the same level 5%.

No important news was published in the Eurozone and the UK. The pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD decreased by the end of the trades.

The US dollar rose against the yen before the labor market reports from the United States. According to the latest report, Japanese service sector activity declined in April suggesting that the country economy slowed down.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Industrial production in Spain slightly supported the euro last Friday (2.8% vs. forecast 1.7%). Meanwhile, the Fed rate expectations are too pessimistic and the ECB policy does not respond completely to the current economic situation. The USA published Non-Farm (160K vs. expectations 202K).

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1350 soon, the next target will be the level of 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

The US newsflow attracted traders’ attention amid an empty macroeconomic calendar in Britain. Non-Farm Payroll became the main event of the week (160K vs. forecast 202K). The unemployment rate remained at the same place as expected.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4400 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4320 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

Japan published Monetary Base report (26.8% vs. expectations 29.3%), Service PMI from the Nikkei/Markit (49,3 vs. expectations 50,0). Meanwhile, April unemployment data in the US will allow us to see whether the US economy is strong enough to cope with another interest rates rise. The unemployment rate remained at the same place as expected.

The price is finding the first support at 106.60, the next one is at 105.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.40, the next one is at 108.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 107.40 and 108.20.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss National Bank published the Foreign Currency Reserves report for April. (588B vs. previous 576B). The NSHB spoke of its willingness to intervene in the currency market as one of the policy instruments.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon May 09, 2016 2:42 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

10.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

William Dudley’s speech (the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York) supported the dollar. According to William Dudley the regulator plans to hike the rate twice this year even though the number of new jobs created in the United States in April has been the lowest in the past seven months. The USA published minor economic data on Monday.

The main drivers for the dollar growth were: new rumors and expectations about the US interest rates increase in the summer, fears of the referendum results in Britain in June and cyclical factors. Meanwhile, the data published in the Eurozone on Monday, showed that the investors’ and analysts’ sentiment had been improved somewhat in May, but concerns about the global economic outlook continued to pressure the market. The Eurogroup decided to give Greece a new tranche in the next few weeks.

Strengthening of the dollar continued to pressure the pound.

According to Taro Aso (the Japanese Finance Minister) Tokyo is ready to intervene in the market if excessive dynamics of the yen will be able to influence the trade statistics and economic indicators. Earlier the yen generally strengthened after the Bank of Japan refrained from implementing fresh easing measures following the results of the April policy meeting, contrary to market expectations.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

European stock markets opened in the green zone. Investors were inclined to risk slowing down the growth of the single European currency. According to the Ministry of the Economy, Factory Orders in Germany strengthened in March due to the increased demand from countries outside the Eurozone (1.9% vs. expectations 0.7%). The figures for February were revised to -0.8% from -1.2%. Still the growth was short-term and the pair decreased be the end of trades.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.1350. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

House Prices from Halifax fell more than expected last month (0.8% compared with 2.2% in the previous month). These data were revised downward from 2.6%. Experts expected the index to decline by 0.4% over the past month.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4320, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

Japanese Finance Ministry announced on Monday that the regulator was ready to implement an intervention if the yen sharply grow in price. Previously, many economists doubt the seriousness of the Ministry of Finance of Japan because of America's negative position with respect to direct intervention by the BoJ.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.00 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 109.80 will be opened after this breakthrough.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue May 10, 2016 1:15 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The calendar of economic events revived the dynamics of the market on Tuesday. The US published Job Openings (5.757M vs. forecast 5.431M).

The single currency slightly rose against the dollar. The euro area published Industrial Production in Germany in March fell more than expected (-1,3% vs. expectations -0,2%), but exports showed a rapid growth (1,9% vs. expectations -0,1%).

The United Kingdom showed Trade Balance that supported the pound. Mark Carney (the Bank of England Governor) warned commercial banks and other financial institutions about a possible rate cut if the UK leaves the European Union.

The yen fell after the Minister of Finance speech on Monday. According to Aso the regulator is ready to intervene if the yen keeps growing. According to Japan Minister of Economy Nobuteru Ishihara he is closely watching the financial markets after the rally of the yen last week.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Germany published weak Industrial Production data for April which pressured the euro. (-1,3% vs. expectations -0,2%). In the Bonds markets, the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany decreased that also played into the hands of "bears".

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1350 and 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

Goods Trade Balance in the UK rose more than expected for the last month, supporting the pound. This indicator (seasonally corrected) showed -11.20B vs. forecast -11.30B. The March data was revised from -11.96В to -11.43В. However, the oil reduction kept putting pressure on the pair GBP/USD. The new oil growth let the pair to grow still it decreased by the end of trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4400 soon, the next target will be 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

No important news was published in Japan. In the Bonds market government bond yields differential decreased (the United States and Japan) which reduced the attractiveness of US he assets. Meanwhile, leading stock indicators in the USA and Europe closed in the "green zone" which traditionally put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 109.80, the next one is 110.60.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed May 11, 2016 2:59 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

12.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs corrected against the US dollar yesterday. The EU did not publish anything important and the market volatile was low. The British statistics was not able to impact the market through the main cross-pair euro/pound and all trades were calm and peaceful.

The lack of drivers calmed the UK market. Still the upcoming referendum may become one of the drives in the near future. According to Michael Sanders (the Bank of England Monetary Committee representative) if Britain votes for the exit from the EU, the Central Bank will be forced to raise the rates to 3.5% by the end of 2017, as a way out of the EU union will trigger the collapse of the pound and will increase the inflation.

On Wednesday, the dollar fell against the yen, as investors took profits. This was after the recent rally reaching the two-week highs and the Japanese statements about its readiness for an intervention. However, many investors expect that Japan will stay away from any action to weaken the yen before the G7 meeting.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In the Bonds markets, the German 10-year government bonds yield reduced which decreased the attractiveness of the European assets. The political component of the day was the speech of Nowotny (the ECB member). According to Nowotny it is desirable to keep the issue of national bonds in alongside with Eurobonds.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound down targets are the support levels of 1.1350, 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

Industrial Production in the United Kingdom for March came below the consensus forecast. (0.1% vs. expectations 0.3%). In the afternoon, the trading was defined by Crude Oil Stocks change in the US (-3.410M vs. forecast 0.714M, previous value 2.784M).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.4400. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

The growth of "risk appetite" had a positive impact on investor's sentiment. The leading stock exchanges showed optimism which pressured the yen as a funding currency. Meanwhile, the government bonds yield differential (the US and Japanese) had been declining for several consecutive trading days. However the pair USD/JPY fell on the Wednesday trades.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the support level of 108.20. We do not exclude the growth to 109.00.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu May 12, 2016 2:35 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

13.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

Although the dollar was supported by the returned risk appetite, the stability of the world economy remained uncertain. The US published Initial Jobless Claims number (294K vs. expectations 270K). The political event of the day were the speeches of Rosengren E. and Mester L. (the Fed representatives). According to Mester the risks related with the Fed forecasts should not have any impact on the monetary policy management. Rosengren suggested that the risks of keeping the rates unchanged seem too low for too long term of time.

Germany published Wholesale Price Index (0,3%m/m vs. expectations 0,2% m/m), the Eurozone published Industrial Production (-0.8% m/m vs. expectations 0.1% m/m).

The Bank of England meeting was the main event of the day. The regulator left the rate unchanged at 0.5%. The inflation report of the Central Bank was the focus of our attention as well. We expect that the increase in assessment of the inflation in the current year could push the pound upwards and neutralize concerns regarding the cost of lending decrease. The Central Banks expects the inflation to return to 0.2%.

The dollar grew against the yen amid the short positions closing. Still the uncertainty of global market growth prospects continued to pressure the US currency.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Eurozone published Industrial Production for March (-0,8% vs. expectations 0,1%). The 10-year government bonds yield in Germany grew which played into the hands of the euro bulls.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1550



Pound

General overview

The Bank of England inflation report was the main event of Thursday. As expected the Central Bank comments regarding the economy and the inflation growth were moderate negative. The UK regulator left the rate unchanged at the level of 0,5%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Golden cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4400 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4320 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

According to Haruhiko Kuroda (the head of the Bank of Japan) it will be hard for the Ministry of Finance to weaken the yen to increase exports. The dynamics of the debt market also indicated an increase in demand for Japanese assets. The government bonds yield differential (US and Japanese) continued to decline.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 109.80. If the price falls it will get to 108.20.



Franc

General overview

Uncertainty regarding the future of global growth continued to pressure the US currency. The US published Initial Jobless Claims (294K vs. forecast 277K and the previous value 274K).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun May 15, 2016 2:35 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

16.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened against the major currencies on Friday. The news flow was poor still we shall highlight a number of USA statistics: Producer Price Index (0,2% vs. forecast 0,3%) and Retail Sales report (1,3% vs. expectations 0,8%).

The EUR/USD remained under pressure after the latest Eurozone releases. Germany and the Eurozone published their GDP reports for the 1st quarter (the 2nd assessment). German GDP came in worse than it was expected (1,3% vs. expectations 1,5%). No one expected any change in the Eurozone GDP. However, because of the weak industrial production in Germany and the Eurozone its GDP estimate was worse than expected. (1,5% vs. expectations 1,6%).

The UK did not publish any important news on Friday. The dollar was stable against the pound, as a result the GBP / USD kept decreasing.

According to Haruhiko Kuroda (the head of the Bank of Japan) the Central Bank will do its best to achieve its target (inflation level below 2%). The regulator has enough options to stimulate the economic growth.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

German GDP grew by 0,7% from January to March after increasing by 0,3% in the last three months of 2015. The indicator was above the average forecast. Analysts expected a growth of 0,6%. In annual terms, the economy grew by 1,3%.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1260 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1150 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

No important news were published in Britain. The pair was trading under the influence of the American news background. The USA published Retail Sales for April (1,3% vs. expectations -0,8%). Consumer Sentiment Index from Michigan University was expected slightly worse than the forecasts (95.8 vs. expectations 90.0). Another factor that pressured the pair GBP / USD was the oil prices.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4320, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

Service sector activity in Japan fell more than expected last month. Tertiary Industry Index (seasonally corrected) showed -0,7% compared with -0,1% in the previous month. Experts expected a decline to -0,2%.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 108.20 soon. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 107.40.



Franc

General overview

The USA data influenced the pair. The United States published a large package of important reports: the Producer Price index for April (0,2% vs. forecast 0,3%).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9660. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9940.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9850. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9940.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon May 16, 2016 3:22 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

17.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar fell on Monday. Earlier it strengthened when the strong US reports (Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment) lowered investors' concerns about the growth of the economy. The positive statistics also revived expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise the interest rates sooner than expected.

Monday trading was weak with low volatility amid the empty economic calendar. The financial markets in Germany and France did not work celebrating Monday of the Holy Spirit. The UK did not publish any important news either.

On Monday, the yen lost its previous gains against the dollar, falling after the growth in the previous days (due to disappointing Chinese economic reports).

Machine Tool Orders in Japan, the Fed report, Consumer Prices and Industrial Production in the US will be the focus of our attention this week.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

No important news were published on Monday. Most European markets were closed to celebrate the Day of the Holy Spirit. In the Bonds Market the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany declined which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260 and 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The United Kingdom published Housing Price index for May (0,4% m/m vs. previous 1,3% m/m). Empire State Manufacturing Index was the only USA report that was worth mentioning (58 vs. expectations 59).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4320 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

The price index for corporate goods (CGPI) in Japan decreased in the contrary to our expectations. According to the Bank of Japan the index came in at -4.2% compared to -3.8% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth to -3.7%.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 109.80. We do not exclude the falls to 108.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue May 17, 2016 8:40 pm


"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

Tuesday turned out to be full with economic news. The US statistics was the main driver of the day. The States published the Core Consumer Price Index (0,2% that coincided with the forecast) and Industrial Production (0,7% vs. forecasted 0,3%) reports. Williams and Lockhart (the Federal Reserve members) gave their speeches. Williams supported the idea to raise the rates two or three times this year. According to Lockhart they do not plan the negative rates scenario.

The Eurozone just published their positive Trade Balance for March (28.6B vs. forecast 22.5B).

The pound reduced its gains against the dollar, when the inflation in the UK slowed in April for the first time since September 2015. Retail Price Index increased by 0,3% y/y, after growing by 0,5% in March. Traders expected the inflation to remain at 0,5%, but the British inflation has been below the target level of 2% for more than 2 years.

The Japanese Industrial Production sharply accelerated in March (3,8% vs. previous 3,6%). Capacity Utilization increased from -5,4% to 3,2% in March, still these figures could not help the yen.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

No important news were published on Monday. Most European markets were closed to celebrate the Day of the Holy Spirit. In the Bonds Market the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany declined which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260 and 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The United Kingdom published Housing Price index for May (0,4% m/m vs. previous 1,3% m/m). Empire State Manufacturing Index was the only USA report that was worth mentioning (58 vs. expectations 59).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4320 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

The price index for corporate goods (CGPI) in Japan decreased in the contrary to our expectations. According to the Bank of Japan the index came in at -4.2% compared to -3.8% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth to -3.7%.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 109.80. We do not exclude the falls to 108.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed May 18, 2016 2:11 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Fed minutes publication was the main event of Wednesday. Traders expected positive comments and hints regarding the possible rate hike. According to the minutes most of the fed members believe that the regulator can hike the rate in June if the economy state allows. After the minutes publications the dollar strengthened all over the market.

The Eurozone published the inflation report. The consumer price inflation in the Euro area remained unchanged at - 0.2%.

The pound was supported by the latest poll regarding the upcoming referendum. According to the poll: the number of British people who support staying in the EU are 8% more than those who want to leave. The UK published Unemployment Rate (remained at 5.1%), Average Earnings including Bonus (2.0% vs. expectations 1.7%) and Claimant Count Change (-2.4K vs. previous 14.7K).

The Yen was supported by the news that the Japanese economy is developing at the fastest pace in the first quarter. Still the Japanese currency lost its gains due to investors' expection that the government new measures will stimulate the economy growth.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The US dollar rose against the euro on Wednesday, due to expectations that the Fed would hike the rates. The Euro area published CPI for April (0,2% vs. expectations -0,2%).

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1150, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1040.



Pound

General overview

England published unemployment data: Claimant Count Change (-2.4K vs. forecast 4.0K), Unemployment rate remained unchanged (5,1%), Average Earnings including Bonus (2,0% vs. expectations 1,7%).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4670 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4760.



Yen

General overview

The Japanese preliminary Gross Domestic Product for Q1 strengthened (+ 0,4% vs. forecast 0,1%). The GDP grew by 1,7% during the first quarter (on an annual basis). Hopes that the Bank of Japan will soften the monetary policy further significantly decreased amid the improved statistics in Japan and the United States.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 110.60, the next one is 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu May 19, 2016 1:36 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar was traded at a seven-week high against the basket of major currencies. The dollar grew when the April Fed meeting minutes showed that the interest rates could rise as early as the next month. The US published weekly initial jobless claims report (278k vs. expectations 275k). William Dudley (the Fed representative) gave his speech by the end of the trading day. According to Dudley if the economy corresponds to the forecast the regulator shall hike the rate in June or July.

The Central Bank of the European Union published its last meeting minutes. According to the minutes the Central Bank may use any instruments to rise the inflation, as long as they are effective.

The pound continued to strengthen against the dollar when the volume of the UK retail sales rose in April. The volume grew despite a sharp fall of clothing sales, which could be due to off-season weather.

The US dollar rose to a three-week high against the yen. The pair USD / JPY grew against the correction on the Japanese equity markets and after the FOMC minutes publication. Only by the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In the Bonds market the 10-year German government bonds yield decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets. The ECB published its protocols. The published ECB minutes could not support the euro.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1040. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1150 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1040 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

The volume of Retail Sales in the UK rose last month more than expected. (1,3% vs. expectations 0,5%) Analysts expected the index to rise by 0,5% last month.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

Machinery Orders rose more than expected (5,5% vs. previous -9,2%). The 2-year Treasury bonds yield reached the highest level since March.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 110.60, 111.40.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss investors' attention was directed to the United States statistics amid an empty macroeconomic calendar. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims report (278k vs. expectations 275k). The USA published Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (-1.8 vs. forecast 3.5).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9940, the next one is at 1.0020.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9940. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0020.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon May 23, 2016 1:18 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened when the latest Fed meeting showed that the interest rate may be raised as early as June. The United States did not publish any important report and all investors' attention was directed to Bullard and Williams’ speeches (the FOMC members). According to Bullard the regulator has more reasons to change the rates than to keep the soft policy. According to Williams the financial stability speaks in favor of a rate hike.

The euro fell to a session low when Markit PMI Composite slowed down in May (52.9 vs. expectations 53.2). The index fell despite the steady growth in Germany and France, as other regions showed a decline.

The UK did not publish important news on Monday.

The dollar fell against the yen on Monday amid Tokyo stock market falling. The Japanese trade surplus in April was significantly above our expectations. Manufacturing PMI in Japan declined in May (47.6 vs. previous 48.2). The index declined at the fastest pace in the last three years due to new orders decrease. The data came after the G7 meeting on Saturday, where the US again warned Tokyo about the negative consequences of intervening to weaken the yen.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Manufacturing PMI in Germany rose to a five-month high in May (52.4 vs. previous 51.8, expectations 52.0). Services PMI in Germany rose to a three-month high (55.2 vs. expectations 54.6).

The first support lies at 1.1200 and then at 1.1130. The first resistance stands at 1.1250, the next one is at 1.1300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1130.



Pound

General overview

On Monday, Britain did not publish important fundamental reports. According to Bonds market the British currency grew strongly: government bonds yield differential (the US and UK) expanded to the highest level in the last month and a half.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4400 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4320 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

Japan published Trade Balance for April (823.5 B vs. expectations 492.8B). Japan has been showing a positive trade balance for the third month in a row. The 10-year government bonds (the United States and Japan) expanded close to the mark of 200 bp, which increased the attractiveness of the US assets.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue May 24, 2016 2:43 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the dollar rose to the two-month high against other majors, due to the expectations of the rate hike by the Fed in June. The possible rate hike continued to be a driver for the US currency.

The euro continued to decline when Germany published weak economic sentiment (6.4 vs. previous 11.2). The sentiment worsened amid concerns about the global economy prospects.

The pound strengthened against the dollar when a new poll showed that 55% of Britons supported staying in the EU vs. 42% leaving the EU.

The yen weakened after Taro Aso's statement (Japanese Finance Minister). According to Taro they need to stimulate the economy further if they want to raise the sales tax in April 2017.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Bonds market showed a growing optimism: the 10-years German government bonds yield grew which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. Economic Sentiment in May (the ZEW Institute) was the focus of our attention. The index sharply fell which weakened the euro (6.4 vs. expectations 12.0).

The first support lies at 1.1130 and then at 1.1070. The first resistance stands at 1.1200, the next one is at 1.1250.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The strong support level of 1.1200 break was followed by the pair decrease. If it breaks 1.1130 down it will open the way to the level of 1.1070.



Pound

General overview

The parliamentary hearings on inflation in the UK were the main event in the country. The 10-year government bonds yield in the UK rose by 5 basis points since the last meeting of the Bank. However, the referendum on membership in EU bears some risk for the country economy.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance 1.4670, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4760.



Yen

General overview

The USA published New Home Sales Change for April (16,6% vs. previous -1,3%).

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ targets are the levels of 110.60 and 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed May 25, 2016 1:56 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

On Wednesday the dollar remained at two-month high against other major currencies. Expectations that the US might raise the base rate in June provided a significant support to the dollar.

Greece reached an agreement with its creditors and unlocked a new tranche in the amount of €10 billion. The agreement eased the concerns over a possible new debt crisis in the Eurozone.

Although no important news were published in the country, the pound kept growing. The only topic that drives the pound is the upcoming referendum. According to the latest poll the number of Britons who prefer to remain in the EU grew. The poll results have been supporting the pound for the second day in a roll.

The dollar showed a growth against the yen. Japanese macroeconomic calendar was empty. The pair was under the influence of technical factors. According to Kuroda (Governor of the Bank of Japan) the country economy continued to recover moderately amid the soft policy of the Central Bank.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Business Climate in Germany grew in May to its highest level in five months. (107.7 vs. expectations 106.8). The published data showed that the largest economy in the Eurozone is getting better.

The first support lies at 1.1130 and then at 1.1070. The first resistance stands at 1.1200, the next one is at 1.1250.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1130 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1070.



Pound

General overview

The pound is approaching its high of the week due to reduced uncertainty about the outcome of the referendum. According to the latest poll the number of Brexit opponents is 55% vs. 42% who want to exit the EU.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4880.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4760 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4880.



Yen

General overview

There is 60% possibility that the FOMC will raise the interest rates on June 15th. The positive statistics from the United States supported the10-years government bonds (US and Japan) which increased the attractiveness of the US assets.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movementб forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 110.60, 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu May 26, 2016 2:09 pm


"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.05.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened its positions amid positive economic reports. According to the latest Fed comments, the US regulator may raise the rates at its meeting in June. In economic news, the United States published Initial Jobless Claims number (268K vs. forecast 275K).

The Eurozone agreement with Greece supported the euro. Greece reached an agreement with its creditors and shall receive a new tranche of loans (10 billion euro).

The second GDP estimate for the first quarter in the UK confirmed that the British economic recovery slowed down. The economy grew by 0,4% in the first quarter from 0,6% in Q4 2015. The British economy faced problems with a weakened growth in emerging markets, especially in China. The upcoming referendum slowed the growth as well.

The dollar remains near in a range waiting for J. Yellen’s speech. The market expects clues from the regulator regarding the possible rate hike in June. The yen grew and deprived the dollar from its latest gains. The Japanese currency growth forced investors to close positions before any potential risk event.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The 10-year government bonds in Germany declined which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets. The growing "risk appetite" in the world put pressure on the safe assets, such as the single European currency. However the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

The first support lies at 1.1130 and then at 1.1070. The first resistance stands at 1.1200, the next one is at 1.1250.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1250 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1300.



Pound

General overview

The revised GDP data for the first quarter was the main event in the UK. The index remained at the same level at 0.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4560, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The yen stopped to grow on Thursday. Earlier it increased as corporate services price index rose. Corporate Service Price index rose by 0,2% year on year, as expected. The USA published Durable Goods Orders (0,4% vs. expectations 0,3%) and Initial Jobless Claims (268K vs. forecast 275K).

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 109.00, the next one is 108.20.



Franc

General overview

Yesterday investors' attention was directed to the weekly US labor market report – Initial Jobless Claims (268K vs. forecast 275K). Switzerland published Industrial Production (-2,2% vs. previous -7,4%).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9940, the next one is at 1.0020.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9850. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9750.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun May 29, 2016 2:11 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.05.2016


Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Janet Yellen (the Fed Chairman) gave her speech. According to Janet Yellen the regulator might hike the rates in the upcoming months if the USA economy keeps steadily growing. Yellen’s speech supported the dollar.

Current situation

The pair was correcting the whole previous week. Still the level of 1.1200 did not let it further. After a short consolidation near the level of 1.1200 the pair returned to a decrease. The support is at the level of 1.1070, the resistance lies at 1.1130.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is above the signal line. The signal is bullish. RSI indicator approached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

After J.Yellen’s speech the dollar received a support. We forecast a decrease deep further to the levels of 1.1070 and 1.1000. As the pair is oversold we do not exclude a correction up to 1.1200 where there is a pivot point and the EUR/USD may turn down.



Pound

General overview

The 10-year government bonds yield in the UK decreased. The UK published Consumer Confidence index (-1 vs. previous -3).

Current situation

The GBP/USD strengthened last week and grew above the supports 1.4560 and 1.4670. Still the pair failed to remain near its new month high. The pound fell and broke the mark 1.4670. The support is at the level of 1.4560, the resistance is at 1.4670.

MACD is in a positive area. The indicator kept decreasing. The histogram is below the signal line. The signal is bullish. RSI indicator is above 70 and is overbought.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4560 soon. The next target is the level of 1.4480.



Yen

National Consumer Price Index remained unchanged contrary to expectations. (-0,3% vs. expectations -0.4%).

Current situation

The pair USD/JPY made growth attempts. Still a strong resistance 110.60 did not let the pair to reach new high. The pair was in a range the second part of the week. Still it managed to grow to 110.60 before the trading week end. The resistance is at 109.80, the support is at 110.60.

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued. The first target is the level 110.60, the next one is 111.40.



Franc

General overview

Employment Level index in Switzerland decreased in the last quarter. According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the index (seasonally corrected) showed 4,880M vs. previous 4,897M.

Current situation

The USD/CHF was in a range 0.9850-0.9940 last week. The pair could grow to 0.9940, but did not break it. The pair corrected downwards to 0.9850 where it turned upwards again. The Janet Yellen’s speech supported the dollar and the pair grew and touched 0.9940. The support comes in at 0.9850, the resistance lies 0.9940.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. MACD kept growing. The signal is bullish. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 0.9940 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.0020.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon May 30, 2016 10:29 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

31.05.2016

Euro

General overview

The dollar rose after J.Yellen’s (the Fed Chairman) comments regarding a possible rate hike in June. The market showed a low volatility due to the holidays in the USA.

Current situation

The EUR/USD tried to grow still it could not break the level of 1.1200. The pair decreased and broke the support 1.1130. The EUR/USD set a new two-month low at 1.1097 on Monday and then started a weak upward correction. The support is at 1.1130, the resistance is at 1.1200.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1130 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1070 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

Monday trading was low volatile due to holidays in the US and UK markets.

Current situation

The pair GBP/USD continued its correction from the recent high near 1.4760. Yesterday the trading was low volatile due to Spring Bank Holiday in the UK. The price was traded at the opening price level almost the whole day. Only by the end of the day the pair slightly increased. The support is at 1.4560, the resistance is at 1.4670.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. The indicator kept decreasing. RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations


We suppose the pair will go to 1.4560 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4480.



Yen


The pair continued its recovery. Rumors that Abe (the Prime Minister of Japan ) was likely to postpone the sales tax increase to 2.5 years pressured the yen. The market volatility was reduced amid to the US holiday – Memorial Day.

Current situation


In the absence of majority of traders (due to holidays in the USA and the UK) the dollar started the week with a growth. Even though the pair started the week below the mark 110.60 it grew to the level 111.40 by the end of Monday. The resistance is at the level of 111.40, the support is at 110.60.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is above the signal line. MACD kept growing. The signal is bullish. Indicator is above 70 and is overbought.

Trading recommendations


After the support level of 110.60 breakthrough down the way to the support 109.80 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

KOF published Leading Indicator for April (102.9 vs. previous 102.6 and forecast 102.8).

Current situation

The bulls in the pair USD/CHF could take the dollar upwards, the pair broke the mark of 0.9940. Still the USD/CHF could not hold over the level and started a downward correction. The second part of the day the pair remained below 0.9940. The resistance is at the level of 0.9940, the support is at 0.9850.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9940. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 1.0020.



CAD

General overview

Canada published Raw Material Price Index that rose more than expected (0.7% vs. expectations 2.2%).

Current situation

The tendency of the pair USD / CAD still looks bullish. The latest growth seems to be a correction from a decrease to the level of 1.2900. The pair managed to grow to 1.3100, where the growth was slowed down. The resistance is at the level of 1.3100, the support is at 1.2900.

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. The histogram is above the signal line. RSI is neutral.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support levels of 1.2900.



Gold

General overview

The gold continued to decline. The metal decreased due to Fed comments and due to the American regulator minutes publication. The number of traders who believe that the US will hike the rate in June grew that pressured the metal.

Current situation

The gold remained under pressure since last week. On Monday the gold quotes could test the support at around 1220 per ounce. From the level of 1220 the pair began a growth and was able to return some of the latest loss. The resistance is at the level of 1215, the support is at 1200.

MACD is in a negative area. MACD kept decreasing. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. RSI approached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1200, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1180.



DAX30

General overview

The situation with DAX slightly changed on Monday. The index was traded in different directions during the day. DAX was influenced by oil prices decline and a possible rate hike in the United States.

Current situation

The index started the week at the level of 10284. DAX rose and was able to set a new high at 10348, where the index turned down and fell to the opening price zone. The resistance is at the level of 10350, the support is at 10175.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI reached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations


The approach to the level of 10350 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 10175.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue May 31, 2016 2:54 pm


"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

01.06.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB meeting is the main event in the Eurozone this week. We believe that the European regulator will not make any changes to its monetary policy.

Current situation

The pair attempted to recover on Tuesday. After a short consolidation on Monday, the pair returned the part of the previous losses. The pair returned to sales by the end of trades and tested the level of 1.1130.

The resistance is at 1.1200, the support is at 1.1130.

The MACD histogram is in a negative zone, above its signal line. The MACD decreased giving a signal to sell. RSI is in a neutral zone. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1130, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1070.


Pound

General overview

The pound resumed its decline. In general, the dollar remained strong against the pound after Janet Yellen’s speech last Friday. The market expects new drivers for a further movement.

Current situation

The pair declined on Tuesday. After a false breakout of 1.4670 the pair fell to 1.4480.
The resistance is at the level of 1.4560, the support is at 1.4480.

MACD is in the negative zone below the signal line. The indicator continued its decline showing a sell signal. The RSI signal line is close to the oversold zone.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4480 and 1.4400.



Yen

The pair returned above the level of 110.40 amid the dollar growth. Abe (the Prime Minister of Japan) decided to postpone the increase in sales tax to 2.5 years.

Current situation

The quotes made attempts to break through the level of 111.40. The pair was in a narrow range of 110.60 - 111.33 all day. The pair tested the level of 110.60 by the end of the trades.
The resistance is at the level of 111.40, the support is at 110.60.
MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasingg. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 110.60, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 109.80.



Franc

General overview

The pair continued its growth. We believe that the pair shall become more volatile before the FED meeting in June.

Current situation

The market still looks bullish, despite the downward correction in the beginning of the week. The pair tested 0.9940, but failed to consolidate on it and fell. The USD/CHF bounced off the level 0.9900 upwards.

The resistance is at the level of 0.9940, the support is at 0.9850.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9940. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 1.0020.



CAD

General overview

We remain bearish on the outlook for the currency. If the Canadian economy continues weakening, the price may decline deeper.

Current situation


The pair grew on Tuesday and reached the resistance 1.3100. Its further movement depends whether the pair will break it or will bounce off from the resistance 1.3100. The resistance is at the level of 1.3100, the support is at 1.2900.

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. The histogram is above the signal line. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.3100 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.3200.



Brent

General overview

The oil prices became volatile on the eve of the OPEC meeting on the 2nd of June. We believe that OPEC will not change anything in exporting policies.

Current situation

The market looks bullish at the higher timeframes. The oil grew the whole Tuesday and tested the level of 50.50. Then the price fell to the level of 49.60. The resistance is at the level of 50.50, the support is at 49.60.

The MACD histogram is in a positive zone. The histogram is above the signal line. The MACD continues to grow and gives a buy signal. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

The oil prices can grow to the resistance level of 50.50. After breaking 50.50 the buyers may go to 51.50.



DAX30

General overview

Yesterday, the European stock market declined. The German DAX 30 fell by 0,61% due to the Volkswagen shares fall. The shares fell amid the latest automaker’s statement where he reported about 19,3% profit decrease.

Current situation

DAX moved in different directions on Tuesday. The index began trading from the maximum point reached on Monday – 10350. In the European session the index DAX 30 dropped and declined to 10175. The resistance is at the level of 10350, the support is at 10175.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 10350 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 10520 will be opened after this breakthrough.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Jun 02, 2016 3:21 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

03.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The ECB meeting was the main event in the Eurozone this week. The European regulator left the rate unchanged. The ECB meeting results weakened the euro, at the same time the strong unemployment statistics in the USA supported the dollar. As the result the pair EUR/USD fell.

Current situation

The euro fell on Thursday due to the macroeconomic statistics in Europe and the United States. The pair could not hold at the level of 1.1200, and dropped down. The level of 1.1155 became the local minimum of the day. We believe that sellers are back and they will take the pair further down. The resistance is at 1.1200, the support is at 1.1130.

MACD is in a positive area, close to the zero line. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. MACD kept decreasing showing a sell signal. RSI approached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1130 soon. The next target will be le level of 1.1070.



Pound

General overview

The British currency is still volatile after the latest poll regarding the UK membership in the EU. According to the poll the number of Britons who want leaving the EU grew vs. those who prefer staying in it.

Current situation

The British currency remained in the flat after a recent sharp decrease. The pair remained in the range 1.4400 – 1.4480. The market needs a break to recover from the losses. The resistance is at the level of 1.4480, the support is at 1.4400.

MACD indicator is in a negative area. The signal line is in a histogram. The signal is bearish. The indicator RSI is oversold.

Trading recommendations

We expect the flat will be continued.



Yen

General overview

The dollar in the USD/JPY fell when Japan postponed the planned sales tax increase. The Japanese government decided to move from the monetary policy easing to economic stimulus.

Current situation

The yen continued falling. The pair set a new local low level at the mark 108.80. The pair broke the level of 109.00 and stopped to consolidate. The resistance is at the level of 109.00, the support is at 108.20.

MACD is in a negative area. The signal line is in a histogram. MACD showing sell signal. RSI reached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the flat will be continued. We do not exclude the growth to 109.00.



Franc

General overview

The Initial Jobless Claims number decreased in the USA. That is a good sign that showed that the USA economy kept recovering. The USA statistics supported the dollar that recovered and returned some of its previous losses.

Current situation

The pair recovered and returned some of the lost positions. The pair grew from the mark 0.9850 to 0.9900. The pair just tested the level 0.9900 and did not move higher. We believe that the pair shall return to the growth. The resistance is at the level of 0.9940, the support comes at 0.9850.

MACD indicator is in a negative area. MACD keeps growing. The signal line is in a histogram. The signal line of RSI bounced off the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 0.9940. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0020.



CAD

General overview

If the USA regulator postpones the rates hike the dollar may weaken (some of the economic indicators do not match the expected level). Stephen Poloz (the Canadian Bank Governor) gave his speech. Still his statement had a minor effect on the pair.

Current situation

The pair remained in the flat and was traded near the level of 1.3100. The USD/CAD moved in different ways on Thursday. The local low mark is the level of 1.3070, a day high lies at 1.3145. The resistance is at the level of 1.3100, the support is at 1.2900.

MACD indicator is in a positive area. The signal line is above the histogram. The indicator is decreasing showing a sell signal. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3100, the next one is 1.3200. We do not exclude the falls to 1.2900.



AUD

General overview

The Australian dollar fell after the retail sales report in Australia. The index came worse that expected. The RBA may low its interest rates to 1.0% from the current 1.75%. The next RBA meeting will take place on 7th of June.

Current situation

The Australian dollar remained in a flat. The pair was traded near the mark of 0.7270. From a technical point of view the pair looks bearish. The resistance is at the level of 0.7270, the support lies at 0.7140.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD keeps decreasing. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 0.7140, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 0.7040. We do not exclude the growth to 0.7270.



Brent

General overview

The Brent quotes grew after the OPEC meeting in Vienna. The OPEC decided not to limit its production and left the quotes at the same level.

Current situation

The Brent showed active trades yesterday. The OPEC meeting was the main driver for the oil quotes. The pair decreased at the European session and stopped above the support of 48.60. The support became the pivot point where the Brent oil grew to the resistance of 50.50. The resistance is at the level of 50.50, the support is at 49.60.

MACD indicator is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 50.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 51.50.



DAX30

General overview

On Thursday, the European stock indexes showed a mixed background. Investors were cautious before the monthly decisions of the European Central Bank and preferred to stay away from any serious actions. The index grew by 0.03% during the European session.

Current situation

The market is still bearish. Yesterday the index tested the strong support of 10175. DAX 30 consolidated above the support 10175.. The resistance is at the level of 10350, the support is at 10175.

MACD indicator is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. The MACD is declining, the signal is bearish. RSI approached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations


The pair can grow to the resistance level of 10350. After breaking 10350 the buyers may go to 10520.



Gold

General overview

We believe that the dollar can keep growing if the FED continues making aggressive statements. The strong dollar shall pressure all risky assets including the gold. The US regulator has been showing signals of his readiness to increase the rates further at the next meeting.

Current situation

The gold lost some of its positions yesterday. The pair broke the level 1215 downwards. The pair did not move deep and stopped at 1209.50. The metal needs new drivers to continue its moving. The resistance is at the level of 1215, the support is at 1200.

MACD is in a negative area, the histogram is above the signal line. MACD kept increasing. The signal is bullish. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1200 and 1180.



Dow Jones

General overview

The major indexes in the USA recovered and returned some of the losses which they had suffered after the Production PMI growth in the US. The PMI index has been growing the third month in a row. The Dow Jones index rose by the end of the trading day.

Current situation

The index recovered yesterday. Dow Jones grew from the level 17686 to 17815. The index looks bullish. The resistance is at the level of 17900, the support is at 17740.

MACD is in a negative area. MACD increased. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 17900 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 18000 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Jun 05, 2016 2:22 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.06.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The weak Nonfarm Payrolls can postpone the Fed rate hike.

Current situation

The pair grew last Friday. The EUR/USD broke the levels of 1.1200, 1.1250, 1.1300 and approached the mark of 1.3730. The pair looks bullish. The resistance is at 1.1370, the support is at 1.1300.

MACD is in a positive area, the signal line is in a histogram. MACD is growing, its signal is bullish. RSI reached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1370 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1450.



Pound

General overview

The published Services PMI for May in the UK did not effect the pound. Still the pair grew after the weak Nonfarm Payrolls in the USA.

Current situation

The pair grew from the support of 1.4400. The pair broke the resistance 1.4480. The buyers could test the mark of 1.4560. Still the growing impulse faded out and the pair returned below the level. The resistance is at the level of 1.4560, the support is at 1.4480.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is above the signal line. The indicator MACD is giving a buy signal. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We believe the pair will remain in the flat.



Yen

General overview

Japanese currency finished last week in a green zone due to renewed discussions regarding differences among the US and Japanese monetary policies.

Current situation

The interest to the yen grew after a weak Non-Farms report. The pair fell and broke the levels 108.20 and 107.40. The resistance is at the level of 107.40, the support is at 106.60.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is above in the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The indicator is showing a sell signal. The indicator RSI is below 30 and is oversold.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 106.60, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 105.80.



Franc

General overview

The weak Nonfarm Payrolls could postpone the rate hike in June. The weak unemployment indicator confirmed that the USA economy slowed down.

Current situation

After the latest unemployment news in the USA the pair decreased. The pair consolidated below 0.9850. The resistance is at the level of 0.9850, the support comes at 0.9750.

MACD indicator is in a negative area. The signal line is in the histogram. MACD is decreasing. The indicator RSI is oversold.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 0.9750. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9660.



CAD

General overview

Trade Balance deficit decreased in Canada in April, at the same time the export grew.

Current situation

The pair USD/CAD was in the range below 1.3100. By the end of Friday trades, the pair sharply declined towards the support of 1.2900 still the decline stopped above this level. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.2900. The resistance is at the level of 1.3100, the support is at 1.2900.

MACD is in a negative zone, the signal line is above the histogram. MACD crossed the zero line downwards. MACD gives a sell signal. RSI is close to the oversold zone.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.2900 soon. The next target will be 1.2800.



AUD

General overview

The AUD fell by 6% against the USD when the RBA lowered its rate in May. Nevertheless the Australian dollar grew after the weak unemployment data in the USA. The Service PMI in Australia also supported the AUD.

Current situation

The pair AUD/USD grew last Friday. The price broke the resistance of 0.7270 and consolidated above it. The resistance is at 0.7400, the support area lies at 0.7270.

MACD is in a positive zone. The histogram is above its signal line. The indicator continues to grow and gives a signal to buy. RSI reached an overbought zone.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 0.7400 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.7530 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Brent

General overview

The Brent recovered after the OPEC meeting results. The OPEC could not set the limit in the oil production. Still the Brent returned to a decrease.

Current situation

The Brent tried to recover and grew to 50.50. However, the quotes did not test this level, the price bounced off to 49.60. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.60.

MACD indicator is in a positive area. The histogram is above the signal line. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations


The potential decrease target is the support level of 48.60. We do not exclude the growth to 50.50.



DAX30

General overview

The Bonds Markets decreased in the Eurozone amid the weak unemployment data in the USA. The weak Nonfarm Payrolls report lowered traders’ expectations regarding the rate hike in the USA in June.

Current situation

The German DAX 30 index was traded above the level of 10175. The index made attempts to grow. Still, the bearish sentiment grew by the end of traders and the index broke the level down. The resistance is at 10175, the support come in at 10000.

MACD indicator is on the ground level. The histogram is below the signal line. RSI is in a neutral zone. The indicator does not show clear signals.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 10000, the next target will be 9760.



Gold

General overview

The safe assets quotes grew last Friday amid a weak Nonfarm Payrolls report in the USA.

Current situation

The gold was traded below 1215 before Non-Farms report publication. The metal grew after and broke the marks 1215 and 1235. The resistance is at the level of 1215, the support is at 1200.

MACD is in a positive area. MACD kept growing. RSI is overbought.

Trading recommendations

The price can grow to the resistance level of 1260.



Dow Jones

General overview

American futures showed the negative sentiment. American Bonds market was disappointed by the weak unemployment data in the USA.

Current situation

The index fell last Friday and tried to break the level of 17740. The index could recover by the trades end and consolidate over the level. The resistance is at the level of 17900, the support is at 17740.

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal as well.

Trading recommendations

The index Dow Jones may remain in a flat.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Jun 06, 2016 8:51 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.06.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Janet Yellen’s speech became the main event of Monday. According to Janet Yellen the weak Non-Farms raised the regulator’s concerns. The release showed signs of new jobs growth slowdown.

Current situation

The euro remained at the local high that it had reached last week. The pair spent the first day of the week near the level of 1.1370. The trading was low volatile. The pair EUR/USD may bounce off soon from 1.1370 .The resistance is at 1.1370, the support is at 1.1300.

MACD is in a positive area, its signal is bullish. RSI reached the overbought level of 70. RSI shows a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential targets are 1.1370 and 1.1300.



Pound

General overview

According to Janet Yellen (the head of the Federal Reserve) if the UK leaves the EU that can cause significant economical circumstances.

Current situation

The pair tried to break the level 1.4400 but failed and remained in a short range 1.4400 – 1.4480. Traders seem to take a pause after the last week decrease. The resistance is at the level of 1.4480, the support is at 1.4400.

MACD indicator is in a negative area, its signal line is below a histogram. MACD kept growing. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4480, the next one is 1.4560.



Yen

General overview

The Fed Chairman noted in her speech that the current monetary policy was moderately challenging. The regulator expects further progress on its goals. The Fed will closely monitor any changes in the labor market.

Current situation

The pair made attempts to break the level of 106.60. The dollar reversed some losses by the end of Monday. The USD/JPY broke the level 106.60 upwards and tried to get hold over it. The resistance is at the level of 107.40, the support is at 106.60.

MACD is in a negative area. MACD kept growing. RSI approached the oversold level of 30 and bounced off it.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 107.40 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 108.20 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc

General overview

The Janet Yellen’s speech (the Federal Reserve Chairman) became the main event of Monday. The dollar slightly recovered against major currencies in anticipation of her comments. According to Janet Yellen the prospects of the US economy is very uncertain.

Current situation

The pair was decreasing the whole day yesterday. Sellers could take the price down. The pair USD/CHF broke the level 0.9750 and touched 0.9700. The new local low is at 0.9680. The price failed to go deeper and bounced off the support 0.9700. The resistance is at the level of 0.9850, the support comes at 0.9750.

The indicator MACD is in a negative area. The signal line is in the histogram. The indicator is below 30 and is oversold. RSI shows a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.



Brent

General overview

According to Janet Yellen the price of oil keeps the inflation at low levels. Oil prices began to grow.

Current situation

The Brent still looks bearish. The quotes bounced off 49.60 and tested the mark 50.50. The black gold did not move further and remained at the reached mark. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.60.

MACD is in a positive area. MACD kept growing. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance 50.50, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 51.50.



Gold

General overview

On Monday, the gold futures rose to two-week high in anticipation of Janet Yellen’s speech. Traders expected to get clues regarding the next interest rates hike in the US.

Current situation

The gold remained in a flat on Monday between the levels 1248 - 1239. The technical picture is uncertain. The quotes have recently broken 1215 and 1235. However the price failed to grow further and stopped near the mark 1250. The resistance is at the level of 1260, the support is at 1235.

The indicator MACD is in a negative area, its signal line is in the histogram. The indicator is giving a buy signal. RSI reached the overbought level of 70 and shows a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1235.



DAX30

General overview

The news that the USA might not raise the rates this summer became an important driver of optimism on global bonds markets. The European stock markets closed in the green zone, supported by growth of shares of energy and raw material producers.

Current situation

The index DAX 30 remained in a flat. The index was traded between the levels of 10077 – 10158. The resistance is at 10175, the support come in at 10000.

The indicator MACD is in a negative area. The MACD signal line is in the histogram. The indictor kept decreasing yesterday. RSI reached the oversold level of 30 and bounced off it.

Trading recommendations

The index can grow to the resistance level of 10175. After breaking 10175 the buyers may go to 10350.



Dow Jones

General overview

If we keep hearing the Fed’s soft statements and if the regulator declares the risk of further economic decline the US dollar may get under pressure once again. The dollar decrease will cause a new wave of purchases in the Bonds market.

Current situation

The Dow Jones kept its bearish movement. The index broke and consolidated over the resistance at 17900 on Monday. The resistance is at the level of 18000, the support is at 17900.

MACD is in a positive area and is growing. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 18000.



Nasdaq

General overview

The external environment was positive for the index. Nasdaq rose by 0.26%. The major US stock indices showed a moderate growth.

Current situation

The index Nasdaq was in a flat during the European session of Monday. The index started to grow by the end of Monday. It bounced from the mark 4506 and grew to the way of 4550. The index looks bullish. The resistance is at the level of 4550, the support is at 4500.

The indicator MACD is in a positive area and keeps decreasing. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

The index is likely to go to the support level of 4500.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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