"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Jul 06, 2014 4:32 pm

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Dear all forum users!

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Due to that fact, TradeFort has successfully re-branded and since 29th of June works under a Fort Financial Services brand. We have tried to maximally improve our fundamental and technical analysis of financial markets.

We hope, that you will appreciate the analysis we provide. We are looking forward to hear your comments and suggestions.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Oct 19, 2015 3:01 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The China GDP better-than-expected data decreased fears related to the fact that the Chinese economy may experience a hard decrease and pull the world economy down. Investors paid more attention to the GDP macroeconomic indicator and the European stock market trading wave started on the positive note as the US dollar is supported against the euro.

The market is awaiting whether the ECB begins to extend the existing measures in September to support the economy. The bears dominated at the market yesterday, the pair EUR/USD was decreasing the whole day.

The British economy positive development still allows "bulls" to keep the currency in the area of the earlier reached highs.

The Chinese positive news supports the US bond yields, which markedly fell last month amid the sharp expectations reduction, concerning the US rate hike. However, the yen is trading without any changes. The USD/JPY is in a flat now.

Relative to the US dollar, the Australian dollar is growing due to the quotations growth after the Chinese Statistics publication.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro positions look vulnerable amid the ECB upcoming meeting. The Governing Council member Benoit Ker said that the regulator was not going to solve any other issue besides the mentioned earlier. Meanwhile expectations regarding the quantitative easing program correction are increasing. The last Bloomberg survey showed that the number of respondents who expect the stimulating measures package to be to expanded, increased from 68% to 81%.

The pair is showing a downward correction. The decrease was stopped at the level of 1.1325.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. We have a “Dead Cross” signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The correction is in progress. If the pair keeps falling we expect the level of 1.1260 to be reach soon. We believe the pair is under pressure till the ECB meeting.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound gained strong impulse last week after the UK labor market report which showed that the unemployment rate had fallen to the seven years minimum. The technical analysis gives a neutral forecast, still the bullish scenario is the preferred one. The UK Thursday retail sales report is in focus now. The report is expected to show a growth since August.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair stopped its growth. If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. Otherwise, it can return below the level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar is declining against the yen after a consolidation at the end of the previous two sessions. The dollar is waiting for the further consolidation period and can begin to rebuild its positions. The pair is still in the range and its movements to the lower bound are used as an opportunity to enter the market. However, bulls still face the lack of strong growth drivers: the Japanese investors’ activity continued to support the pair, but the yield spreads dynamics does not give cause for optimism.

The USD/JPY started an upward corrective movement. The price managed to break the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and the Chinkou Span now. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a “Golden Cross” signal. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair grows it will grow to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Oct 20, 2015 3:14 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro is still under pressure in the run-up to the ECB meeting. After the ECB meeting, the investors will wait for the Fed meeting results which will be held on October 27-28. The Fed officials give contradictory comments: some of them speak about the need to raise the interest rates this year, some of them want to change the rate when the USA economy is more stable and strong.

At the beginning of the week the pound was able to increase slightly amid the UK government bond yields growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The Bank of England governor’ speech supported the pound. McCafferty said that the rake hike was necessary and the hike would be gradual.

The pair USD/JPY is showing symbolic growth amid the moderate demand for the "risky assets" which put pressure on the Japanese yen as the funding currency. Also, investors’ attention is paid to the US API crude oil and the number of building permits publication.

The Australian Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Council last meeting (October 6) minutes noted that there was a correct decision to leave the rates unchanged at the October meeting. The Australian dollar decline supports the system balance change in favor of escape from the extractive economic nature.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The greenback continued to pressure its main competitors first half of the week - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 94.97. The US dollar is supported by the US API crude oil reserves and the building permits number. The single European currency is still under pressure in the run-up to the ECB meeting.

The pair is showing a downward correction. The decrease was stopped at the level of 1.1325.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. We have a “Dead Cross” signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps falling we expect the level of 1.1260 to be reach soon. Shall the EUR/USD return to the growth it will go to the level 1.1410.



Pound

General overview

The pound supports the UK government bond yields growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The Bank of England governor’s speech affected the pair. The GBP/USD grew to 1.55 after his speech. McCafferty confirmed his plans to change the rate. According to McCafferty the lending companies term have been improved.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upwards movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. The growth target is the level of 1.5550. Shall the pair return below the level it will go to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The JPY market short positions are still at the low level despite the fact that the expectations concerning the Bank of Japan monetary policy easing increased compared with the previous month.

Technical indicators are neutral and point to the side dynamics continuation. The pair is between two levels: 119.20 and 120.40.
The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40a. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak buy signal as the price has just left the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Oct 21, 2015 4:30 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs continued to consolidate in the narrow ranges amid the lack of relevant data. The market completely ignored the published economic statistics. The euro zone improved lending conditions news was an exception which led to the short-term pressure on the US dollar. Apparently, traders are waiting for the new guidelines and they determined to wait when the ECB will announce its monetary policy decisions.

Investors liked the ECB lending survey results which showed that the quantitative easing program bears its fruits, improving the credit conditions. It could set up to the concerns decrease that the ECB would expand the bond purchase program. However, the euro interest has been short-lived and the euro was almost back to their original positions by the end of the day.

There were "cable" short-term purchases amid the Bank of England J. McCafferty harsh comments who said that the bank should start the interest rates rising now to get the interest rate gradual and steady growth. However, this rhetoric has supported the British currency for a short time. The pound showed a lateral movement.

The Japanese yen fell against the dollar. Obviously, the mood, connected with another monetary easing at the next BoJ meeting and the US interest rates increase is the main topic for the yen traders. The agencies polls show that the traders’ percentage who believe in incentives volume growing has been increasing. The pair stopped in the middle of the trading day then the price changed the direction to the downward one.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has completely leveled the previous growth success against the dollar. The ECB representative Linde said that if necessary the ECB could expand the quantitative easing program. According to him, they are not in a hurry to hike the rate as the euro area inflation raises some concerns.

The pair EUR/USD continues to trade in the range, limited by the resistance near 1.1410 and the support near 1.1325.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the levels of 1.1410 and 1.1530.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. We have a “Golden Cross” signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We wait for the ECB meeting results that may give us the clue regarding the ECB further plans. We still two ways the price to go: the level of 1.1325 if the EUR/USD decreases and the level of 1.1410 if it grows.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound has remained stable, although it is still under pressure. The Bank of England representative McCafferty said that the interest gradual increase can justify the monetary policy tightening in the short term. The Bank of England needs to avoid deviation from the course when making interest rates decisions; there is a risk that the inflation will be above the target level in 2017.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form “Dead Cross”. The pair will keep growing until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a neutral territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. The growth target is the level of 1.5550. Shall the pair return below the level it will go to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY is consolidating its achievements in anticipation of the Fed representatives’ speeches. However, the current statistics do not support the dollar. Now traders expect the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen evening speech, hoping to hear hints about the interest rates increase. Traders hope the rate hike will be this year.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak buy signal, the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Oct 26, 2015 3:08 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro is recovering after the Friday's decrease. The European stock markets decrease supports the single currency, which, however, is of corrective nature. In general, the euro is under pressure amid the weak IFO survey. The pair EUR/USD is trying to recover after the last week decrease, the decrease was triggered by the Draghi's statement.

The pair GBP/USD is trading in the quite narrow range near the important support. The October British Industry Confederation report can become a catalyst for a further movement. The report was expected with decline -8, but in fact, it turned out -18.

The yen increased, having corrected its losses against the dollar. The Bank of Japan representative Hamada said that as long as the Fed rate hike expectations put pressure on the yen, the Bank of Japan did not need the further monetary policy easing.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Germany IFO institute business climate data were published yesterday. Traders expected business climate index to be 107,8 in fact it was 108.2. This indicator is closely correlating with the economic growth pace and is always closely monitored by traders. The industrial sector slight slowdown is offset by the service sector growth. Population revenues are noticeably increasing, the unemployment and mortgage rates are decreasing. These are ideal conditions for the construction sector. The September secondary housing market sales rose up by 5.7% compared with August.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The resistance levels are 1.1150 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair rebounded from the Friday’s low yesterday. The EUR/USD reached the first resistance at the level 1.1050. If the pair keeps growing it will fly straight to the resistance – 1.1150. Shall the pair fall the target will be the level 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect the lateral trend amid the mixed news background. The UK 10-year government bond yields are growing relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Traders expected the support from the primary residence sales, still the index came out lower than expected - 468,000 against the forecasted 550,000.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460.

We have a weak sell signal; the price is in the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards; the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the downward movement is continued the price will decrease to 1.5300. In case of a growth the level of 1.5390 will be the first target.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Bullish sentiments prevailed during the trading day. There was the "risk appetite" growth after the Mario Draghi’s statement that the ECB was willing to increase the incentive package at the next meeting in December. Such verbal intervention provoked the quotations growth on the Asian, European and North American stock exchanges. The carry trade operations increase is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as the funding currency. The commodity market sales also contribute to the dollar strengthening.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give us a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. Otherwise we will see a decrease to 120.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:21 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD decreased by 0.3% amid the short positions profit taking. The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the quotations decrease by 0.35% amid the September US new home sales negative release. The pair USD/JPY decreased by 0.35% by the end of the day amid the carry trade closure which caused the demand for the yen as a funding currency.

The morning course of the trades was determined by the debt and equity markets dynamics. Yesterday the credit markets German 10-year government bond yields rose up relative to their US and the UK counterparts, which is a positive factor for the single European currency. The world leading stock markets showed a moderate correction movement, however, demand for the "risky assets" is still preserved.

The main event of the day was the third quarter UK GDP release report. There was the third quarter service sector growth rate slowdown, this sector is the basis of the UK economy. According to the Markit Economics PMI data, the manufacturing sector also showed a decrease compared to the previous quarter. The negative factor is the state budget gradual reduction, which reduces the multiplier effect in the economy.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the credit markets German 10-year government bond yields rose up relative to their UA and the UK counterparts which is a positive factor for the single European currency. The world leading stock markets showed a moderate correction movement. The US statistics was in the focus yesterday. The durable goods orders pleased traders with the positive data. The labor market upward trend contributes to the household spending increase. The September car sales increased in the domestic market

The pair euro/dollar tends to decrease. The attempts to form a low bottom are expected.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps growing it will reach the resistance – 1.1050, the second growth target is the level of 1.1150. Shall the pair fall the target will be the level 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The third quarter UK GDP release was the main event of the day. The trade deficit increase amid the British currency revaluation against the euro is traditionally a negative factor for an economy growth. However, that is not so bad for the UK economy. The unemployment level reduction and the average earnings growth, taking into account premiums make the household spending increase which eventually moderates out the mentioned above negative factors.

The pair tends to decline. The pair failed to break through the key resistance of 1.5390 and it is under pressure now.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460.

We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks the level of 1.5300, the downward movement will be continued to 1.5200. In case of a growth the level of 1.5390 will be our first target.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

This week traders’ attention will be focused on the Fed meeting where the US interest rates decision will be made. The Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for October 30 where the regulator will also decide on the country interest rate. Currently, the Japan economy is showing very weak recovery signs and the country inflation rate remains far below the target of 2.0%. If the Fed refrains from the interest rates raising, it could prompt the Bank of Japan to the monetary policy further easing.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards, the Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. Otherwise we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Oct 28, 2015 4:32 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

During the day the euro rate was demonstrating a positive trend against the most world currencies after its decline the day before. Traders were expecting the US Federal Reserve decision about the monetary policy.

The Fed meeting was held on October 27-28. Analysts were sure that the regulator would keep the base rate at its lowest level and would delay the monetary policy tightening till 2016. Their assumptions were correct as the Fed did not change the rates. The FED meeting supported the dollar. Regulator hinted that the next rate hike might happen this December

In the context of some uncertainty investors prefer safer assets. In addition, investors continue to win back the US controversial statistics. Thus, the country durable goods orders volume decreased by 1.2% in September compared to August while analysts expected a decrease by 1.5%.

The Conference Board analytical company said in its turn that the US consumer confidence index fell to 97.6 points in October from the revised September figure of 102.6 points. Analysts predicted the index to be at the initial level of 103 points in September.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Federal Open Market Committee statement (FOMC Statement) was expected with moderately aggressive tone, despite the weak economic reports for the last two weeks. The German GfK consumer confidence index was expected to decrease from 9.6 to 9.5 in September. Traders expected the September imports prices at 0.2% after 1.5% in August.

The Fed left the rates unchanged. Still the regulator may change the rate this December. The rate change will depend on the November meeting results.

The short-term correction from the support level of 1.1050 turned downwards. Sellers broke the level and fell further.

The first support is at the level of 1.0870, the next one is at 1.0830. The resistance levels are 1.0925 and 1.1050.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair grows it will reach the resistance – 1.0925. Still we do not believe in a growth right now. We presume that the pair will keep falling after yesterday’s Fed meeting. The targets are 1.0870 and 1.0830.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The 3rd quarter UK GDP was only 0.5% against the quite weak forecast of 0.6% and a growth by 0.7% in the 2nd quarter. The US durable goods orders volume (Durable Goods Orders) decreased by 1.2% in September against the forecast of -1.1% and -2.3% in August, according to the basic indicator (except transport components), the reduction was 0, 4% against the neutral forecast of 0.0%.

The upward trend which began at the support level of 1.5100 showed reversal signals. The support level of 1.5325 and the rising channel lower bound of 1.5320 breakthrough were among these signals.

The first support is at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The resistance is at the level of 1.5300, the second one is at 1.5390.

We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair sharply fell at yesterday American session. The pair may return to the resistance 1.5300 for a while still we support the idea that the decrease will be continued. Our primary targets are 1.5200 and 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The expected lateral trend resulted in a rather strong decline at the technical level of 120.40 due to worse-than-expected US September new home sales and the durable goods orders volume data. The stock market declined on Monday and Tuesday and as a result the market got the yen decrease by 82 points yesterday. The Bank of Japan intends to leave the current monetary policy unchanged. The Central Bank will make up a decision on this issue on the Friday meeting. Still the reason of yesterday’s pair growth was the FED decision that supported the greenback.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards, the Kijun-sen is directed upwards, both lines are forming a “Golden Cross”. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Oct 29, 2015 4:05 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve meeting has been already held and it's time to sum up results. The monetary authorities kept interest rates unchanged and pointed out to the December rate hike possibility. It should be noted that the FED has been promising to change the policy since June so it was not obviously a new event for financial markets.

Our attention was drawn to the UK September mortgage lending publication. The labor market positive dynamics (the unemployment reduction and the average earnings growth) with the mortgages interest rates decline point out to the positive data output. Against this background, the British currency gained short-term support.

During the day, the "bullish" sentiment dominated within the pair USD/JPY for two reasons. Firstly, the Asian trading session industrial production data were published that put pressure on the Japanese currency. Secondly, the PMI production sector decline with the factory orders decrease did not allow investors to count on the strong data output.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The FOMC again pointed out to the weak export, the number of new jobs decline and the low inflationary expectations. However, the US currency showed a powerful growth the previous day. Traders again continued to win back the divergence after a pause, waiting for the Federal Reserve and the ECB central banks actions.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0870. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance – 1.1050 is our first growth target. We expect the pair to keep falling. The targets are 1.0925 and 1.0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

According to the Ministry of Energy the US crude oil stocks again increased which may put pressure on the basic reference varieties price. The USA did not please traders with the last quarter positive GDP release. The index was expected to reach 1.6%, but in fact it turned out to be worse than expected having amounted less than 1.5%. The Great Britain, on the other hand, upset traders with weak data regarding the same indicator.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460.

We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

Though the pair returned to the resistance 1.5300 we do not believe it will grow much higher. We support the sell idea. Our primary targets are 1.5200 and 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Apple company positive report with the FOMC "pigeon rhetoric" supported the US stock market and today we may expect the upward trend continuation. Demand for the "risky assets" will put pressure on the yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is 120.40. The resistance is at 122.40, the next one is at 123.50.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Nov 02, 2015 2:15 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US reports showed that the consumer spending and incomes grew less than expected while the personal consumption expenditures price index has shown the biggest fall since January. The published US PMI in the manufacturing sector was better than expected - 50.1 vs the forecast of 50.0.

The statistics supported the pair EUR/USD having shown that the pre-consumer inflation justified the analysts’ forecasts, having shown 0.0% in annual terms. The basic consumer price index rose up by 1.0% y/y vs. 0.9%. The separate report has witnessed the euro area unemployment rate decrease to 10.8% against the September value of 11.0% and the August value of 10.9%.

The inflation report could cast a shadow on the Bank of England rate change decision in May 2016. If the report coincides with the economic growth forecasts decrease, the market will regard it as a "dovish" tone. The inflation is expected to grow to the level of 2% next year which makes a rate hike in May more possible. The October PMI showed a 55.5 against the expected 51.3.

The pair USD/JPY returned to its previous range at the end of the last week. The Bank of Japan decision to leave the monetary policy unchanged suggests that the Central Bank see the situation differently. The Japanese regulator avoids the monetary policy changes, keeping the QE program at the level of 80 trillion yens ($660 billion.), despite the further easing growing expectations amid the weak statistics.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro was near 1.1030 before the euro area business activity reports publication. The manufacturing activity index will be in the Europe and the United States spotlight. The ISM purchasing managers index will be closely studied, especially the employment sub-index as the market is monitoring the employment and inflation in order to understand what will be the Federal Reserve December decision. The euro growth may be restrained due to the ECB December further easing expectations.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0870. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance of 1.1050 limits the pair’s growth. We expect the pair to keep falling. The decrease targets are 1.0925 and 1.0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound has significantly grown, especially taken into consideration the euro decline. If we compare two banks that can potentially increase the rate we will see the difference between the Bank of England and the Fed rhetoric. The Fed maintains the hope of the December rate hike while the last month Bank of England reports tone was rather mild. The inflation report can cast doubt on the Bank of England decision. If it coincides with the economic growth forecasts decrease, the market will regard it as a "dovish" tone.

The first support is at 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.

We have a buy signal now as the price broke the Cloud upwards and stays above of it. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The upward movement will be continued if the pair stays above the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is above its signal line in the positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price keeps growing, it will go to the level of 1.5460. The decrease target is the support level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar stopped the two day decline and regained some of its losses as traders are closing dollar positions. The European stock market was opened with a decrease. Markets reacted negatively to the weak China PMI, preferring safe assets, including the yen.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a weak and confirmed buy signal; the pair is in the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen crosses the Kijun-sen downwards. If the USD/JPY returns above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair returns above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:41 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The first part of the week was marked by the currency market sluggish uninteresting trade in narrow side ranges. One of the low volatility reasons was the lack of important economic data. Another factor that made traders wait and see was the US employment report which would appear in the coming Friday. In these circumstances, the dollar has grown up very slightly against all of its major opponents.

The Eurozone news has shown good results. The manufacturing sector last figures were revised in the growth direction, still it did not affect the European currency traders. The market's attention was drawn to the ECB President Draghi, who said that the level of monetary policy stimulation should be reviewed at the December meeting.

The British pound showed the most prominent multidirectional volatility among the majors, but also, like the other major currencies, was closed with a decrease against the dollar. The pound was supported by the UK manufacturing activity strong data – the PMI index rose up to 55.5 in October from 51.8 in September while it was expected to see a decrease by 51.3.

The pair USD/JPY was traded within the overall market sentiment and also remained in the narrow side range. The Japan stock markets Nikkei index decline put slight pressure on the dollar. However, the US dollar leveled these losses and was able to achieve a slight increase by the end of the day in the European and American sessions.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The market is still under the ECB's statements impression to continue easing policy at the same time the Fed is going to start the policy tightening. There was nothing interesting in the ECB President M. Draghi's performance yesterday. He said that the inflation must be neither too high nor too low; the further stimulation measures should be reviewed at the December meeting; he was also concerned about the emerging markets economic growth prospects.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0870. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance of 1.1050 limits the pair’s growth. We expect the pair to keep falling. The decrease targets are 1.0925 and 1.0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The demand for the pound turned out to be short lived, the strong resistance levels to which the pair jumped cooled down the bulls, in addition the investors are cautious on the eve of this week important events which could influence to the further cable movement. Traders wait for the Bank of England's meeting whose results will be known on Thursday as well as the US labor market report that is coming on Friday.

The first support is at 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.

We have a confirmed buy signal now as the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downward, the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The pair will continue the upward movement till it stays above the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is above its signal line in the positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price keeps growing it will reach the level of 1.5460 first. The decrease target is the support level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair remained in a narrow sideways. The greenback was supported by its own economy news and the grown Treasuries. There was a day off in Japan yesterday that is why the yen was traded under the external events influence and it is likely to remain in the formed sideways, waiting for the main event of the week - the NFP in the United States.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen crosses the Kijun-sen upwards. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair wants to test the level of 121.60. Still it has to break the level 121.30 first. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Nov 04, 2015 2:28 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

Investors continue to wait for the new guidelines. There was a steady growth demand for the dollar yesterday – the US dollar rose against the euro and the yen, the dollar recorded relatively neutral results against the pound at the beginning of the trades still it strengthened against the "cable" in the evening. The dollar was supported by the Janet Yelen speech. Now the number of traders who believe that the Fed will raise the interest rates in December is increasing and it supports the increased demand for the dollar.

The ECB and the Fed monetary policy divergence as well as the ECB President M. Draghi’s expectations pushed the euro for small-volume sales as the market was afraid of verbal intervention. M. Draghi's words did not put strong pressure on the single currency; according to his statements it will be necessary to revise the monetary policy stimulation at the December meeting. He sees downside economic growth and the inflation downside risks.

The British pound was under pressure from the dollar part. The unpleasant moment for the pound could become the UK service sector economic data. We expected the PMI index growth to 54.5 after 53.3 in September and, taking into consideration the market mood, connected with the probability of BoE "hawkish" statements supported the pound.

On Wednesday the Australian dollar strengthened amid the September trade deficit reduction and the retail sales steady growth. The RBA left the interest rate unchanged at the level of 2% at the Tuesday meeting, despite the strong decline expectations in response to the third quarter inflation moderate increase.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair EUR/USD was declining the whole day breaking through one support level after another. The reasons for this decline are both fundamental and technical. The US employment significant growth altogether with Janet Yellen speeches supported the dollar. As we know the European Central Bank monetary policy easing and the 50% chance of the December Fed rate hike are already accounted by the market.

The first support is at the level of 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0730. The resistance levels are 1.0870 and 1.0925.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

As we expected the pair fell. The targets 1.0925 and 1.0870 are fulfilled. The new decrease target is the level of 1.0800. In case of a rebound the pair can return to 1. 0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect the quarterly inflation report, the monetary policy decision and the Monetary Committee meeting minutes today. There will be the Mark Carney's press conference after all releases. Perhaps the Bank of England will indicate that market expectations regarding the rate changes became too soft, if it happens, the news can support the pound. In the case the pair may rise to 1.55. Kristin Forbes may join those who support the rate increase.
The first support is at 1.5300, the second one is at 1.5240. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

We have a confirmed and weak buy signal now as the price entered the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is horizontal; the Kijun-sen is directed upwards. The pair will continue the upward movement till it stays above the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is above its signal line in the positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price keeps growing it will reach the level of 1.5460 first. The decrease target is the support level of 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Demand for the dollar is based on expectations about the December Fed rate hike. The Japanese economic data showed the monetary base growth slowdown in October 32.5% y/y against the earlier 35.1% y/y when it was expected an increase to 36.2% y/y. This message and the Japan stock market growth supported the dollar against the yen for a short time. The market was waiting for the US session, hoping to get guidance from the US statistics and the Fed speeches.

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is 120.40. The resistance is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen crosses the Kijun-sen upwards. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair wants to test the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 120.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:38 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro fell against the dollar, the yen and the British pound. Not only the US messages put pressure on the euro. The European bloc news also reduced the demand for the euro. The Markit service sector indicators last estimate showed the initial data correction towards an increase in the euro area and Germany as a whole. The October service sector purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 54.1 from 54.2 and to 54.5 from 55.2 in the largest European economy. Accordingly, composite indicators were reduced, including also the manufacturing sector data.

The British pound was also sold against the dollar on the yesterday's trades, but in this case, the main factor was the pressure caused by the US economic data and the Fed governor statements. The UK economic statistics has given good results on the service sector activity that is the main economic field. According to the Markit Company, the UK service sector PMI (PMI) rose up to 54.9 in October from 53.3 in September when the forecast assumed that it would be decreased only to 54.5. This increase could signal that the 3rd quarter national economy slowdown could be temporary for the first time since June.

The pair USD/JPY continued to rise and has risen to the new intraday highs. Additional support for the dollar against the Japanese currency came from the US economic data and the Fed speech. Yesterday Japan did not publish anything important.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the September euro area retail sales and the Germany industrial sector orders data was the most interesting news. The sales dynamics is positive, but it unlikely will support the European currency, taking into consideration that the market is definitely guided by the Fed and the ECB multi-directional policy. Technical factors can somewhat support the single currency as the pair fell to the strong support level.

The first support is at the level of 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0730. The resistance levels are 1.0870 and 1.0925.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair stopped its decrease at the level of 1.0870 where it is trying to consolidate. We believe it will remain at this level till the tomorrow’s NFP. The further EUR/USD direction wholly depends on the news. The decrease target is the level of 1.0800. In case of a rebound the pair may return to 1. 0870.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British currency fell after the Bank of England cut its inflation forecasts without changing its monetary policy. The pound fell by 0.65% to 1.5282 against the US dollar. The inflation forecast was revised mainly due to the oil prices and imports fall, as well as the fourth quarter GDP growth and the first quarter of 2016 will be reduced.

The first support is at 1.5200, the second one is at 1.5100. The resistance is at the level of 1.5240, the next one is at 1.5300.

We have a confirmed and strong sell signal now. The pair is below the Cloud. The GBP/USD is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The pair shall decrease until it stays below the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pound’s fall was stopped at the level of 1.5200. We expect a short-term growth back to 1.5240 or maybe 1.5300. The decrease target is the level of 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan did not publish anything important yesterday. The pair continued its growth after the Jennet Yellen statements awaiting for the US labor market report which will be released tomorrow. The report is expected with good results for the US dollar. The Fed top manager speeches gave additional impulse for the dollar purchases.

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is 120.40. The resistance is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen crosses the Kijun-sen upwards. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair continued its growth. The growth target is the point of 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sat Nov 07, 2015 11:40 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The whole last week the dollar was in demand and has increased. The pound was an outsider last week, it fell against the dollar and other majors after it became clear that the Bank of England would not soon increase the interest rates.

The US currency strengthened against the yen amid the growing expectations about the US policy tightening. The pair was under the US statistics influence. There was not so much statistical data, the last week unemployment benefits information pointed to the jobless claims increase by 16 thousand to 276 thousand which was worse the expected 260 thousand. But it did not upset the market, because this level is attesting the labor market improvement. The NFP came out better then expected. That again supported the dollar. The data came higher than expected 185 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 271 thousand.

The dollar suffered slight losses within the USD/JPY that were caused, obviously, by the technical factors, which provided support to the European currency at the strong support levels. The Fed top management speeches had little impact on the market events as the most speeches did not affect the monetary policy topic, but the banking system regulatory issues. However, the Atlanta Fed President Lockhart D. allowed himself some hints regarding the December interest rates increase, saying that there will be more reasons to increase the rate on the eve of the December.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro area consumer prices fell by 0.1% in September, but in general it showed zero dynamics in October, despite the asset purchase program worth 60 billion euros per month which the ECB has launched 7 months ago to revitalize the inflation growth. The Germany manufacturing sector orders have also showed the third month decline in a row. The weak data reinforced concerns about the China slowdown and other key emerging markets decline started to have a negative impact on the European largest economy.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The NFP came out with better than the forecast results. That news supported the dollar. The NFP gave the pair an additional impetus downwards. The first downward movement target is 1.0630. Still pullbacks towards 1.0800 are possible.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The "cable" has fallen against all of its major opponents after the BoE broke investors' hopes for an early policy tightening that supported the pound in recent years. The Bank of England left the key rates unchanged at the level of 0.5% and the immutability securities purchase fund worth $375 billion pounds. The pound fell after the regulator comments that signaled that the UK monetary policy tightening necessity has decreased amid the global economy deterioration until mid-2016 and perhaps until the beginning of 2017.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The last week news background sent a pound to a knock-down. The pair fell from the level of 1.5400, breaking several levels on its way. After such a strong fall we expect a pullback and a consolidation. The possible rebound targets are the levels of 1.5100, 1.5150 and 1.5200. The southern movement target is 1.4970.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The pair continued its growth and showed small increase to the previous highs by the end of the day. The dollar keeps supporting the pair when it got support amid the positive releases after the regulator's statements about the US possible monetary policy tightening. The BoJ governor H. Kuroda said that the central bank would examine the economic changes and would make the optimal decisions at each meeting in order to achieve the inflation of 2% as soon as possible. It sounded like the willingness to increase the quantitative easing if necessary that put pressure on the yen.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The dollar within the USD/JPY is growing. The growth target is the level of 123.80, still we do not exclude a consolidation and rebounds down to the levels of 122.40 and 121.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Nov 09, 2015 2:39 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The European currency declined amid the German weak macroeconomic news and the overseas different statistics. Now the chances of the US December monetary policy tightening are inexorably growing. One of the main Fed rate hike conditions is the labor market stable state. The US dollar can reach the price parity with the European currency in the short term. The Germany published the imports, exports and trade balance data on Monday which amounted 3,6%, 2,6% and -0.740М. Amid these data the euro slightly strengthened.

The pound came under the massive sales after the industrial production report publication. The pound fell by 0.2% in September. A sum of the US labor market and unemployment statistics had a bombshell effect. The UK and the US calendars were empty on Monday. Thus investors had to focus their attention on technical factors. By the end of the day the pound increased.

On Friday the Japanese currency also came under pressure. The US News has been published and it was the main reason of demand for the US dollar. Nothing important happened in Japan. On Monday early in the morning it became known that the wages level rose up by 0.6% amid the lower forecasts. However, it was not clearly enough for a substantial demand for the Japanese currency. Only by the end of the day the pair slightly decreased.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro decreased after the US labor market report publication. The price was under pressure when the October report had showed that the US economy had been able to create 271K new jobs against the September growth by 137K. In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 5.0%. The euro became the most vulnerable currency after this report publication.

The euro three-week decline against the US dollar found a support at the level of 1.0730. There was a short-term correction from the level. However the pair could not grow above the level of 1.0800.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.0800 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.0630.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound showed a growth on the Monday trades. Both the UK industrial production mixed results and demand for the dollar put pressure on the pound lat week. Earlier the pound came under pressure after the Bank of England Mark Carney speech who rejected to comment the rate hike this year possibility. The US employment data only added fuel to the fire, having strengthened the dollar against other currencies.

The price reduction was followed by the strong support level of 1.5100 breakthrough amid the increased volume. After the level of 1.5040 testing the pair rebounded upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5040, 1.4970.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen fell amid the US strong employment report. The Bank of Japan governor Kuroda said that the Japanese economy state fundamentals remain solid. At the same time the Prime Minister Abe said that the yen excessive strength had been corrected. Nevertheless the dollar weakened and the pair fell by the end of the trades on Monday.

Buyers broke through the key resistance level of 122.40. The level of 122.40 breakthrough allowed the pair to consolidate above the resistance of 123.20. However then the pair fell below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth to 123.20 further on we expect a fall towards 122.40 and 121.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Nov 10, 2015 2:47 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

After a few days of the European currency decline the pair needed a rest and a technical correction. There is not any reason for the euro significant growth. There was not any anything interesting news yesterday. There were just a few minor indicators; however, they unlikely interested investors. Thus, the market remained in the hibernation state and we did not noted strong movements.

The pound also enjoyed an increased demand after the dollar slight correction. The British currency has risen and consolidated. The published UK retail sales were weak - the index was reduced by 0.2% while a growth of 0.7% was expected.

The Japanese currency has also risen slightly in relation to the US dollar. The Japan trade balance has decreased and the bank lending growth rate has fallen. The pair dollar/yen also consolidated.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro remained under pressure after the ECB report which is considering the negative interest rates possibility at its December meeting.

Furthermore, the correction efforts are restrained by the fact that after the US Friday labor market strong publication the probability of the December Fed rate hike has risen and is 71.7% against 58% before the report publication. Probability of the January increase was 75.8% and 85.2% in March.

This fact supports the dollar and limits the growth rate. The pair did not grow to the level of 1.0800 and rebounded downwards. The pair broke through the support level of 1.0730.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 1.0630. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect more volatility trading the second half of the week after a quite enough the first part. The BoE Governor Mark Carney's speech will be in the center of traders' attention on Wednesday.

The pair GBP/USD the dollar rally somewhat slowed down. The pair has recovered and now it is trading above1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5040.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In general the pair USD/JPY has a positive mood. The US currency was supported by the Fed statement which confirmed the expectations validity about the Fed interest rates growth at the December meeting.

Meanwhile, the pair USD/JPY was stable during the day, still the dollar could not resist, so that quotations played out growth, having decreased to the below the level of 123.20. The pair started a consolidation here.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.20 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 123.80 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Nov 11, 2015 1:51 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The European Central Bank monetary policy provides the main influence on the euro aimed at its currency rate weakening. A number of officials’ oratory led by the ECB head, Mario Draghi and the macroeconomic indicators reduction confirmed that the current policy would be continued and even be accelerated. Germany has been published the wholesale price index of little importance, the US has published the mortgage lending index.

The British currency purchases started yesterday. Great Britain has published the number of jobless claims (3,3K), the unemployment (5,3%) and the average wages level (3,0%). The positive forecasts made traders buy pounds at night. Besides there was Mark Karny's speech yesterday.

The Japanese currency declined a bit. The decrease was caused by the lack of important statistics. Japan did not publish important news yesterday. It became known the Japanese machinery and equipment orders changes by 23.1%. However, investors did not react to this report. Investors need something more interesting and important for active actions. The pair dollar/yen is trading in a flat.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The commodity market sales became a positive factor for the dollar as the commodity cost is denominated in the US currency. Industrial metals were the decline leaders, oil showed a lateral tendency. It was a bank holiday in the United States on the occasion of the Veterans Day, so the USA traders were absent. There were not any important releases in the euro zone.

Bulls managed to break through the resistance of 1.0730 at the yesterday trading session after which there was correction with the level testing upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.0730 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.0630, further then towards 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistics website published the labor market release. The Bank of England pointed to the steady domestic demand in its latest monetary policy reviews amid the unemployment decline and the average earnings growth. “Bears” ended the game and continued to open short positions on the attractive levels, playing off the divergence, expecting the US Fed and the Bank of England monetary policy. However the pair pound/dollar showed a growth.

The pair tested the support level of 1.5150 and rebounded upwards. The bulls broke through the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5150, 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was not important macroeconomic statistics yesterday. The debt market pointed out to the bullish trend continuation. The US and the Japanese government bonds differential profitability is confidently kept at the level of 200 bp. Yesterday the utility service sector was the growth leader in the US stock market which indicates the lack of investors' risk appetite.

The corrective decline is amid the low volumes and stopped below the resistance level of 123.20.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance level of 123.20, it may continue the growth in the short term. The potential target is 123.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Nov 12, 2015 2:17 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Thursday trades were opened by the Germany inflation data report. Then, the Eurozone published the industrial production indicators. The main attention was drawn to the United States. In particular, traders were interested in the weekly jobless claims release. The data came out at 276 000. The Fed several representatives’ speeches set the tone for the evening trades.

The Germany wholesale prices report slowed down the October decline, the euro is focused on the ECB representatives’ statements where it was stated that the deposit rate should not be decreased in December that supported the European currency.

The Bank of England governor Carney‘s optimistic comments that the UK economy was able to cope with the external risks supported the pound purchases. The UK average salaries did not meet traders' expectations while the unemployment rate has fallen. The housing balance price indicator exceeded expectations and amounted to 49% for October.

The pair USD/JPY slightly corrected downwards when the Bank of Japan assured that there was no need for further monetary easing.

The New Zealand dollar fell against the Australian dollar that received some support after the October unemployment sharp decline. After the new jobs number increase the traders reduced the expectations regarding to the Australian Reserve Bank further interest rate decrease.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ECB stimulating measures and the Fed rate hike possible increase, probably, will continue to set the tone in the foreign exchange market until the December Central Bank meetings. The German and the US two-year bond yields have already broken through the levels which were set in March.

After the last week sharp decline the price has moved into the long consolidation near the support level of 1.0730. Now the price is trading above that level. The volume divergence signals towards the buyers power easing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0730 and 1.0630.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK labor data became the driver growth for the pair. The unemployment rate has fallen to 5.3% that was the lowest indicator for the last seven years. The RICS housing prices balance was published the other day which came out better than expected - 49%. There forecast was 45%.

Practically the whole week the British pound was correcting from the support level of 1.5040. Despite the reduced volumes, buyers have broken through two strong resistance levels of 1.5150 and 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300. The approach to the level of 1.5300 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5150, 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Fed December interest rates increase is estimated with the probability of 75%. The market's reaction suggests that the probability of the Bank of Japan additional stimulating measures became lower. Nevertheless, the yen is expected to continue weakening against the US dollar as the probability of the Fed December rate growth is a strong driver.

After the rapid growth the pair started its weak downward correction. Not having broken through the resistance level of 123.20 the pair is demonstrating a lateral movement, keeping the likelihood of growth.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.20 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 123.80 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss National Bank will not hurry with the deposits interest rates reduction. Firstly it will try to restrain the franc growth with the help of the foreign exchange intervention. The financial capital outflow resumption is worth noting which can also increase pressure on the franc while maintaining the total market volatility at the current low levels.

The frank is in a flat between the levels of 1.0100 and 0.9960. However, the pound growth is possible, although it will be very weak.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9960, the next one is 0.9850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Nov 15, 2015 9:25 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The European and the US economic releases alongside with the monetary authority’s comments caused a vivid dynamics for the major pairs. The Eurozone and the region countries published the third quarter GDP data. The Europe has published the trade balance report. Besides the US minor release, players have paid their attention to the retail sales where the monthly indicator increase was expected.

The main blow to the euro came from the ECB President M. Draghi who "promised" to revise the buying assets program in December, having noted the inflationary risks weakening due to the single currency recent strengthening. Another reason for the sales was the euro zone industrial production weak data which fell by 0.3% in September against the expectations by -0.1%.

The pair EUR/GBP declined amid the euro widespread sales contributed to the GBP/USD quotations recovery after a decrease. In the absence of the UK releases the pair focused on the dollar rate behavior.

The pair USD/JPY experienced a lack of growth dynamics. The trades were little revived after the Fed speech, which have not made significant corrections to the market expectations, although it slightly undermined the dollar positions which calculated on the aggressive statements.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro resumed its decline after a growth at the end of the trading week. The decline was provoked by the less aggressive than expected Fed statements tone towards the interest rates increase timing. In particular, Evans said that he would like to see the inflation growth before the interest rates being changed, the New York Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Dudley noted the inflation expectations signs decline, saying that the rate hike conditions soon be achieved.

After a consolidation above the support level of 1.0730 the pair tested the resistance level of 1.0800. However the pair decreased to the support level of 1.0730.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0730, the next one is 1.0630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0730 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0630 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK insignificant indices publication has not supported the pound. The traders’ attention was focused on the US retail sales news. The pair GBP/USD is trading above the support level of 1.5200 for the first time since last Thursday when the Bank of England MPC meeting took place.

The price is trading above 1.5200. The level of 1.5200 is a strong support and the price could not fall below this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5300 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5390 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In general, the pair USD / JPY continues its correction from the three month maximum, achieved in the middle of the week. The Friday data was published that fixed some Japan production recovery.

Throughout the week the US dollar is trading under the level of 123.20. The correctional price reduction is at the low volumes - sellers are gradually losing their strength.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 122.40 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 123.20 and 123.80.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar fell against major currencies at the end of the week as some investors decided to close their positions. Meanwhile, the newsflow continue to support the expectations, concerning the Fed interest rates increase in December. It is early to talk about the dollar strengthening trends changes. However the dollar strengthened by the end of the trades.

The pair is trading between the resistance level of 1.0100 and the support level of 0.9960. By the end of the trades the pair increased. The October retail sales release in the United States was published on Friday's trading. The growth rate was 0.1%, the forecasts of + 0.3%, previously was recorded 0.1% growth.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9960, the next one is 0.9850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Nov 17, 2015 2:48 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro sharply fell against the dollar amid the risk appetite decline after the Paris terrorist attacks reports. The temporary support was the Eurozone October consumer price index (CPI) last estimate which revised the preliminary results. The indicator was increased to 0.1% y/y despite the fact that it previously recorded 0.0% y/y after - 0.1% y/y in September. The ZEW Institute German and the Eurozone business sentiment reports were the main event yesterday. The data came out better then forecasted 6,0 at the level of 10,4.

The British pound also fell against the dollar. However, the "cable" losses were not so significant. Apparently, the pound stability continues to provide its appeal as the most high-yielding currency among the majors. The UK news was filled with important information for the pound, namely the inflation data which is one of the main indicators, according to which BoE corrects its monetary policy. By the end of the day the pair increased.

The Japanese important economic news was not published; the yen continues to decline against the dollar, probably, on the lingering sentiment for the greenback and on the Japanese stock market optimism where the Nikkei grew by 1.22%.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone October consumer prices index came out in its final assessment, the index was revised upwards. The total CPI was 0.1% versus 0.0% in the preliminary estimate and the forecast was with no changes, the core CPI was revised downwards from 1.0% y/y to 1.1% y/y. The data made no impression on the market. The ZEW economic sentiment index was published as well yesterday. It came out at the level of 10,4.

The price resumed to its decline. The price consolidated below the level of 1.0730 and tried to test the support of 1.0630. The trade is at this level now. Indicators again indicate the "bearish" sentiment predominance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0550 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound high stability may be the result not only the political situation in France, but also because of the UK inflation data where the October retail price index was expected with a growth from 0.8% y/y to 0.9% y/y. In fact the index came out at the level of 0.7%. The UK October consumer price index was expected at the same level of 1.0% y/y but showed a growth to 1.1%.

The price is consolidating. After the support successful of 1.5200 breakthrough bears sent the price lower to the mark of 1.5150. Then the pair increased above the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. We do not exclude the growth to 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese 3rd quarter GDP in the 2nd preliminary estimate was revised to -0.2% against -0.1%. The US important economic indices were published - the consumer price index and the industrial production volume. These data put pressure on the yen. However the dollar’s strengthening on the market allowed the pair to grow.

The pair is trying to consolidate above the level of 123.20. After this mark successful breakthrough bears took over the initiative and sent the instrument downwards, trying to test the level from the top.

The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 123.80 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 124.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Nov 18, 2015 2:27 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The German ZEW institute business climate showed the figures better than the consensus forecast, still this indicator downward trend is still strong. On the contrary, the United States have pleased traders with the October moderately positive inflation data. In the light of this the United States and the Germany bond yields grew that increases the investments’ attractiveness in the US assets. The FOMC authoritative representative U.Dadli gave his speech in the United States. He said that the rates growth would be a good news for the dollar. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat.

The US and the UK CPI differential profitability indicators declined in favor of the latter in October which caused the UK government bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The side trades were noted in the pair pound/dollar.

According to the third quarter GDP data, Japan slipped into the technical recession. The US October inflation showed a moderate growth that reinforced investors' expectations, regarding the Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening possibility. The Japanese yen is an obvious outsider among the other pairs. The pair dollar/yen increased.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The sentiment related with the ECB and the Fed multi-directional policy continued to help the US dollar to keep the leadership. The European statistics has not published important news, the September construction volume data did not change the market sentiment. After M. Draghi unequivocal sayings about the intention to increase the monetary policy easing, the ECB representatives' statements were ignored.

The pair shows a consolidation above the support level of 1.0630 after its reduction and this level testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.0630, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound was supported by the UK inflation data. The UK did not publish any important news. The news background was filled with the Bank of England representatives’ speeches that were ignored. Investors were waiting for the US FOMC last meeting reports.

"Bulls" have not been able to renew their attempts to increase to the resistance level of 1.5300. The price broke through the support level of 1.5200 but then it returned above this level. The pair started its consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can rebound to the resistance level of 1.5300. After breaking 1.5300 the buyers may go to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair has slightly increased, supported by the continuing dollar growth and the Japan stock market optimism growth. However, there was not any high activity at the market. The price demonstrated the slight decline caused by the technical factors and the lack of Japanese economic news. The Fed minutes have been published, but they have not had any effect on the dollar.

The price continued its growth, but was stopped below the mark of 123.80.

The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 124.30 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:40 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve meeting minutes could not disappoint investors. Most the Fed managers expect the necessary conditions to the interest rates increase to be achieved by the December meeting. There was the risks reduction that was caused by the trading partners’ economic slowdown. The fundamental background is still negative for the single European currency. However, the pair corrected upwards yesterday.

The UK and the US government bond yields expanded in favor of the latter which reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. The commodity market showed the "bearish" sentiment that supports the US currency. Nevertheless, the pound strengthened against the dollar.

The US inflation short-term forecast was revised towards the positive direction; the medium-term view remains the same. Against this background, the dollar index basket (USDX) strengthened. Japan is in the technical recession, due to many factors, one of which is the China business activity slowdown which is one of the Japan leading trade partners. The Bank of Japan meeting was held where the country monetary policy was discussed. The bank decided not to change it.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US Treasury two-year bond yields is once again demonstrating growth that supports the demand for the US dollar. Investors are still pessimistic about the European assets in the bond market: the German 10-year government bonds are reducing relative to their US and the UK counterparts. The number of the US initial jobless claims report was published. The report showed the number that coincides with the forecast - 271K.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.0730 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0630, 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistics Office published the October retail sales report. The consensus forecast pointed out to the retail sector sales growth slowdown by 0.4% compared with the previous month as the September sales increased by 1.9%. In fact the index fell by 0,6%. The UK unemployment fell to their lowest levels since mid-2008, the third quarter average earnings increased by 3% in annual terms.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. After breaking 1.5300 the buyers may go to 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting results was the main event of the day. It was the monetary regulator first meeting after Japan fell into the technical recession. The low wage growth constrains household spending. The Japanese currency growth against the US dollar to 2.16% in the third quarter contributed to the exports decline which increased the trade deficit.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 123.20 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 123.80.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc rose slightly after the FOMC minutes publication. The Switzerland government reported that Jordan can hold intervention in the currency market. According to his words, negative rates lead to the overvalued franc.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0190. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0280.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Nov 22, 2015 7:48 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The initial jobless claims number fell by 5 thousand till 271 thousand. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business activity report has shown a much more positive trend than it was forecasted - the index rose up by 1.9 in November against the October 4.5 with the improvement expectations only to -1.0. The prospects can be judged to some extent by indicators which increased by new orders index to -3.7 against -10.6, still the employment rose up to 2.6 after the previous -1.7.

The euro zone and the US important macroeconomic data have not been published. The ECB President Mario Draghi gave his speech. The monetary regulator has once again confirmed its intention to change the ECB monetary policy if needed, still traders have not received a clear signal from him. Пара EUR/USD slightly fell by the end of the day.

In the absence of interesting macroeconomic releases the last trading day of the week, traders have closely followed the debt and commodity markets dynamics. The UK credit markets government bond yields are reducing relative to their US counterparts. The commodity market has stabilized after the strong sales in the strong negative fundamental trend. By the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD sharply fell.

The United States and Japan have absolutely opposite macroeconomic statistics which the market gets during autumn. The United States is encouraging investors with the labor market and consumer spending positive data that has forced to think seriously about the Fed interest rates raising on December 16th. Even the dollar revaluation factor has had no significant negative influence. The pair USD/JPY closed the week trades with a decrease.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

It is hard to ignore the euro zone payments balance dynamics that is an important macroeconomic indicator. The trades surplus was 73.4 billion euros in the third quarter of 2015 which is less by 7.08% than it was in the second quarter, but by 10.7% more than in the same period of the last year. The positive dynamics in comparison with the year 2014 is related to the single European currency devaluation.

“Bulls” have attempted to start a growth. The price was at the level of 1.0730 and rebound downwards, trades were held with a decrease to the mark of 1.0630.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields are declining relative to their German counterparts. The British Industry Confederation (CBI) data were not so encouraging that showed the industrial production index decreased in November to -6 against the earlier 4 and the orders indicator reduction to -11 from -8 in October.

The "bulls" attempt to continue growth has failed. The resistance at the level of 1.5300 has been only tested. The price could not break through that mark and returned downwards. The support level of 1.5200 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5150, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5200 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5300 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair dollar/yen has declined. In addition to general market sentiment, formed under the influence of the Fed protocols content, sales within this pair were caused by disappointment that the Bank of Japan decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged when a certain part of the market still hoped to hear about the leniency programs capacity.

The pair continued its decline to the mark of 122.40 but it was stopped. The pair formed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.30.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The decrease in this pair stopped. Earlier the pair USD / CHF continued to fall while the dollar was declining on all fronts after the Fed officials’ comments. The Federal Reserve Bank manager Cleveland Loretta Mester said that the Fed has almost reached the employment targets. She is confident that the inflation target of 2% can be achieved despite the oil prices decline and the dollar growth. She believes that the longer delay is (with higher rates), the higher financial imbalances chances are. By the end of the trades the pair showed a growth.

The pair dollar / franc stopped its correctional movement. The pair increased and tested the level of 1.0190.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 1.0190 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance 1.0280 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Nov 23, 2015 4:05 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The November Germany manufacturing sector business climate report has been published by Markit Economics. The data output was at the level of 52.00 which indicates the moderately positive dynamics and shall give a short-term support for the single European currency. The employment and average earnings growth with the interest rates reduction on 30-year mortgages allowed banks to increase the mortgage lending in October. In this connection, the data is expected to be a little better than the forecasted medians, the data came out at the level 52,6. It is impossible to ignore the ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech last week. The ECB governor told: "We'll do everything we need to do for the early inflation rising". The pair euro/dollar was trading in a side corridor.

Now the debt market dynamics is on the bears’ side in the pair GBP/USD: the UK government bond yields have been declining for last three trading days relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Last week CBI again reported about the industrial orders volume reduction and the negative trend has been lasting for seven months in a row. The pair pound/dollar continued its decrease.

The Japanese and the US government bond yields have been declining for last two trading days which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the Japanese assets. The dollar was supported by the "black gold" market pessimistic sentiments: the Baker Hughes release was not able to provide strong support to the oil quotations, despite the fact that the number of drilling rigs decreased by 10 units. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone monetary authorities once again underlined that they were ready to go for the monetary policy further easing if necessary. However, the debt market dynamics is on the euro bulls side now: The German 10-year government bond yields are growing relative to their US and the UK counterparts.

The last week minimum of 1.0630 was updated. Sellers managed to update and consolidate below this mark. Until recently this support started to play the resistance role.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound has increased by 3.4% over the last eighteen months against its main trading partner which increases the risk for the UK exporters. The CBI respondents identified two key negative factors: the strong pound and the global economic growth weakness.

The British pound showed a decrease from the resistance level of 1.5300. The pair broke through the support levels of 1.5200 and 1.5150. The price reached the levels amid the low volumes, but with an increased volatility.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a srong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5040.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the US secondary market home sales positive publication. However the data came out at the level 5,36M, the forecast was 5,40M. The dollar rally comes to the end; traders have already priced in a bet the December Fed raising interest rates forecast. The final decision will depend on the Fed economic data, so the personal consumption expenditures deflator which will be released on Wednesday will determine whether the US monetary tightening cycle starts in 2015 or not.

The buyers’ previous attempts to break through above the resistance level of 122.40 were unsuccessful. The pair rebounded downward from this level.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 122.40 and 121.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Nov 24, 2015 2:34 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

The IFO Institute published the November Germany business climate data. The data came out better then forecasted 108,2 at the level of 109,0. The Markit PMI composite index shows the number of optimists’ growth among the purchasing managers. The US GDP was revised upwards amid the positive macroeconomic indicators. This factor has spurred the US two –year Treasury bonds growth which supported the dollar. However the pair closed the trades with a slight increase.

The Britain inflation parliamentary hearings results were interpreted quite negatively by traders. The medium-term forecast was revised to the negative side amid the oil prices decline, the British currency growth against the main trading partner (euro). In the light of this, the monetary authorities have stated once again that interest rates will not be raised in 2016. the pair pound/dollar sharply fell.

The US third quarter GDP revised data made investors open long positions as the Japanese and the US indicators’ differential has been expanded even further in favor of the latter as Japan has slipped into the technical recession. The current trend is reflected in the debt market which has led to the US Treasury bonds growth for a short-time which is traditionally a strong positive factor for the dollar. We cannot ignore the demand dynamics for the "risky assets". However the dollar’s strengthening was short-term and the pair USD/JPY decreased.




Euro (EUR)

General overview

The EUR index lost 4.08% at the beginning of the fourth quarter which is a positive factor on the euro zone net exports and will contribute to the production volume growth and the unemployment reduction in the medium term. The Germany and the US government bond yields reduction have supported the euro bulls.

Sellers tried to break through and consolidate below the strong support level of 1.0630. However the pair closed the trades above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1630 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.0730, 1.0800.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The "bearish" trend is gaining momentum and the British pound rushed to the current month minimum values. The UK government bond yields continued to decline on the bond market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduced the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets.

Breaking through the support level of 1.5150, the downward trend has managed to test the nearest target that is the mark of 1.5100. After the level of 1.5150 testing there was a consolidation with the downward trend continuation. The bears fixated the price below the level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5100 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5150.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The "bullish" sentiments have prevailed. The stock markets’ upward trend with the high-yield cross-rates increase indicated the "risk appetite presence among investors" which had a negative impact on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. However the yen became a leader again and the pair USD/JPY fell.

The medium-term bullish trend was stopped at the resistance level of 123.80 and turned downwards for a correction. Due to the formed correction sellers break through the mark of 123.20 and tested the support level of 122.40.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 122.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 122.40.




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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Nov 25, 2015 2:18 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

There is a long weekend in the USD amid the Thanksgiving Day celebration. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than forecasted 273 thousand having fallen to 260 thousand.

The euro continued its sluggish recovery against the US dollar. The Germany GDP increased by 0.3% in the third quarter. The Germany economic expectations, business optimism and the current situation assessment indices were higher than the predicted values. The US GDP report was revised upwards to the mark of 2.1%. However, the pair euro/dollar fell by the end of the day.

The UK calendar was empty and investors had to focus their attention on the US data. The course of trades was determined by the debt and the equity markets dynamics. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s speech excited the market a little bit as he noted the inflation decrease and the possible soft monetary policy period extension. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased.

The third quarter US GDP got the US and Japan government bond yields to increase. The Japanese currency continued to grow against the US dollar, despite the good overseas statistics. The yen regained its reserve currency status amid the risky assets escape. However, the pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a growth.




Euro (EUR)

General overview

We think that the euro grew only due to the need from time to time to be corrected. The US currency continued to be in demand as the two-year Treasury bond yields are now in the field of multi-year highs. Amid this fact the pair EUR/USD decreased.

The pair EUR/USD consolidated above the support level of 1.0630. The price reached this level amid the low volumes then it formed a consolidation. Then there was the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.0550 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.0420 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK/US and Germany credit markets spreads have stabilized after the week of contraction. The US traders left the market for a long weekend amid the Thanksgiving national holiday.

There was a strong support level of 1.5100 breakthrough. Sellers broke through but could not fixate below. This level was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5040 soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency continued to grow against the US dollar. There was that upward trend in the stock market. – The "protective" communal sector was the decline leader that indicates the risk appetite increase among investors and put pressure on the yen as a funding currency. As a result the dollar became a leader.

The USD/JPY downward correction stopped at the support level of 122.40. Sellers lowered the price to this level. The price reached the level amid the low volumes that signaled about the downward correction easing. There was price upwards rebound.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 122.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 121.30 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Nov 26, 2015 3:16 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

In economic news, the US durable goods orders positive releases and the jobless claims got the pair EUR/USD to the fresh low for the last seven months. The US important macroeconomic statistics have not been published amid the day off due to the Thanksgiving celebration. Europe published important reports, excluding the Spain GDP for the 3 rd quarter (3,4% y/y and 0,8% q/q) and the euro zone M3 money supply (growth by 5,3%).

The pair GBP/USD has managed to recover after a decline. The Cable was supported after the UK Budget Responsibility Office raised the country GDP forecast for the next year to 2.4%. The report also informs about the budget surplus prospects and the labor market improvements.

The yen was supported by the Bank of Japan minutes which pointed to the risk control concern for the economic growth and the inflation. The most favorable statistics gave quotations additional stimulus to growth. There was a weak volatility in the market amid the holiday in the USA.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US did not publish any important macroeconomic statistics; moreover, the United States had a day off. The American traders left the market for a long weekend to celebrate Thanksgiving in a good mood - the dollar is trading near the multi-year highs.

In general the technical studies remain bearish. There was the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough. The price fixated below this level and formed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. The approach to the level of 1.0630 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0550, 1.0420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK debt market government bond yields have been growing for the last few days in relation to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. As the United States has a day off on Thursday – amid the low liquidity "bulls" opened long positions, based the corrective movement development.

Sellers have not been able to consolidate below the strong support level of 1.5100. The level reverse testing was followed by its breakthrough upwards. The resistance level of 1.5150 was the potential target for a correction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5040.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The investors "risk appetite" growth will contribute to the carry trade operations increase through the Japanese yen as a funding currency and may encourage "bulls" to long. The US traders’ absence caused the low liquidity. The US celebrated Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. There was weak volatility after the growth.

Sellers lowered the price to the support level of 122.40. The price reached the level amid the low volumes that signaled about the downward correction weakening.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks 122.40 down it will open the way to the support level of 121.30.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc came against the dollar. The Switzerland industrial orders report amounted to -5.1% vs. -2.4% previously. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank said about the US economic growth decrease in the fourth quarter from 2.3% to + 1.8% for the year. The decrease is connected with the consumer spending rate reduction from 3.1% to 2.2%.

The pair has stabilized. The price fixated above the support level of 1.0190.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0190, the next one is 1.0100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0280, the next one is at 1.0370.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement shows. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0370.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Nov 29, 2015 6:39 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.11.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD continued its lateral trend amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics, as well as the low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving Day in the United States. The global equity market shows an upward trend, the Germany high-tech sector was the growth leader. This factor signaled abound the "risky assets" demand which had a negative impact on the euro as a funding currency. According to the dollar index, the quotations were near the psychological level of 100.00.

The third quarter UK GDP came out. The data is at the forecasted level: 0,5% (q/q) and 2,3% (y/y). The third quarter unemployment rate decreased by 0.3% to the level of 5.3%. This is the highest rate of the unemployment decline in 2015. The average wage increased by 3% on an annualized basis in this period which indicates the household spending growth and is a welcome factor for the economic growth. The data output at the level of 0.6% supported the British currency. However by the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD decreased.

Japan has published a bloc of important macroeconomic statistics where the inflation: 0,0% (y/y). The CPI has increased by 0.58% for the first nine months of this year while the average earnings grew by only 0.25%. Thus, the population real incomes have reduced and in that respect, the Bank of Japan governor H. Kuroda told about the weak wage dynamics at the monetary regulator last meeting. The Japanese 10-year government bond yields which reflect the inflation investors' expectations fell by 4 bp in October. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen slightly increased.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro remained under the downward pressure against the US dollar in anticipation of the upcoming ECB meeting. Investors' expectations regarding the ECB more aggressive the rates easing keep growing ahead of the meeting. Economists predict that the ECB may disappoint the market expectations for the upcoming meeting.

The downward trend may show weakness in the short term. Trades are held below the strong resistance level of 1.0630. While the level is holding back the price growth from the level of 1.0550, the downward trend potential is still preserved.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0420 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK GDP 3rd quarter estimate is 0.5% q/q + 2.3% y/y that is completely unchanged. The Sterling did not grow because of the UK and Germany government bond yield reduction.

The upward correction that was formed from the support level of 1.5040, gradually began to turn towards the bearish trend.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5040 line break that will open the way to the level of 1.4970.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese inflation data at the level of 0.2% came in worse than the consensus forecast year on year which had a downward pressure on the Japanese currency. The "investors’ risk appetite growth" is a threat to the yen as a funding currency.

The dollar bullish sentiment is dominating. Bulls did not have enough strength at the same time to break through the strong level of 123.20.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.30.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar and the franc remained mostly at the same place as on Thursday when the US markets were closed to celebrate Thanksgiving Day. The sales remained sluggish until the end of the day as the US markets were closed early on Friday, extending the holiday lull. However by the end of the day the pair slightly increased.

The pair remains stable near the recent highs. The USD/CHF pair consolidated above the strong resistance level of 1.0280. The Swiss franc upward trend is stable, despite the strong divergence on the volumes.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0280, the next one is 1.0190. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0370.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement shows. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target – 1.0370.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.
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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Nov 30, 2015 3:39 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The 10-year German government bond yields decreased by 5 basis points in November. The average earnings growth contributes to the consumer spending increase which is the inflation welcome factor. The debt market showed mixed dynamics: the German 10-year government bond yields are decreasing relative to their US counterparts, while the Gilts growth supported the EUR/GBP quotations moderate growth. Meanwhile the pair EUR/USD showed a slight decrease.

The US and the UK government bond yields exceeded 40 basis points last Friday. The UK GDP second estimate remained unchanged at the level of 0.5% that has deprived the Cable for the short-term corrective growth continuation. The investment volume has been revised by 0.7% in the positive side, compared with the previous quarter and by 6.6% compared to the same last year period. The British companies are increasing their investments. The commodity market sales had a positive impact on the US dollar value as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars. The pair GBP/USD was decreasing and only by the end of the trades it slightly corrected upwards.

The Chinese stock market panic sent the Asian markets downwards and contributed to the carry trade operations closure which caused demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The oil and industrial metals’ prices declined which supported the US dollar as the commodities value is denominated in dollars. The Japanese and the US government bond yields showed growth in the bond market having formed the first signal on the technical correction completion. The pair USD/JPY increased on the Monday’s trades.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The November Germany inflation preliminary data has been published. The CPI came out at the level of 0,1% m/m and 0,4% y/y. The "black gold" market negative trend put downward pressure on the CPI leading euro-zone economy. The possible US Federal Reserve December policy tightening serves as a main factor for the dollar bullish sentiment.

Bears have lowered the price below the support level of 1.0630. This level testing ended with the breakthrough failure that fixed the price at the support level of 1.0550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0550 breakthrough we may expect the fall towards 1.0420 further on we expect a growth.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Bears dominated at the market. The debt market shows the negative trend for the British assets. The 10-year government bond yields fell relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The Bank of England governor M.Karni’s statements that the UK low interest rates preservation can last for a long time gave the market an additional incentive to buy the dollar against the pound.

The support at the level of 1.5100 was broken through and the pair decreased to the level of 1.5040. There was an attempt to break through this barrier to consolidate below. This breakthrough was short-term and the pair returned to the mark of 1.5040.

The price is finding the support at 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5040, the next one is at 1.5100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5040, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4970.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bearish sentiment prevailed at the market. The Japanese October industrial production release surfaced a pleasant surprise amid the PMI index positive dynamics. However it was not enough for the downward movement development and the pair increased.

The price checked once again the correctional corridor support for its strength - the level of 122.40 and then its growth has resumed. The trade was at the marks of 123.20. The current growth is the lateral correction continuation in the corridor of 123.20-122.40.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the level of 123.20 break that will open the way for the buyers to 123.80



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Dec 01, 2015 2:35 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The USA/Germany and the Germany/UK government bond yields did not show any changes in the debt market. The stable debt market indicates the single European currency side trend development. Europe and the US have published a large package of economic statistics. Investors received the manufacturing sector business activity index data in the Eurozone (52,8 that is at the forecasted median), the Germany (52,9 against the forecasted 52,6) the UK (52,7 against the forecasted 53,6) and the US (48,6 against the forecasted 50,5). The Germany employment data attracted the traders’ attention: 6,3% in November against the forecasted 6,4%). The pair EUR/USD showed an increase.

The Bank of England governor Carney made his speech. According to Carney the regulator was ready to ease the pressure on the British banks and to reduce the capital requirements volume, bringing an end to the post-crisis reforms years in order to make the banking sector more secure. By te end of the trades the pair GBP/USD showed a growth.

The dollar index basket is near the current year maximum values. Market participants refrained from active trading and have taken a wait and see position. The manufacturing sector ISM index data output is worse than the forecasted medians that restrained "bulls" from the further attack. The pair USD/JPY was trading in a side corridor.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

If the USA inflation shows some positive signs, the Eurozne one does not show any signs of activity that threatens the European economy with the big economic problems in the long term. We expect the ECB to enlarge the stimulating measures this Thursday which is supposed to push the inflation upwards. In economic news the Germany PMI manufacturing activity index was published which amounted to 52.9.

The pair started a correction. Sellers have broken through the strong support level of 1.0550. Then, the price jumped upwards. The resistance level of 1.0630 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.0550, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.0420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Markit UK PMI manufacturing sector did not please investors with the strong data: 52.7 vs. 53.6. The British pound sgowed a growth after the UK third quarter strong report. Still the currency has lost 2.4% against the dollar in November, largely due to the Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane comments who said that the UK did not need to raise the rates in the near future.

The pair showed some growth, staying under pressure below the nearest resistance of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is at 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5040 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4970.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bullish sentiment predominance was noted amid the debt market positive dynamics. The Japanese and the US government bond yields expanded that increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets and thereby supports demand for the dollar. However the growth impulse weakened.

The pair stopped its increase. Having rebounded from the support of 122.40, the pair has managed to grow to 123.20 and to test this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.20 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 123.80 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Dec 02, 2015 2:35 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

Traders take a wait and see position awaiting for the ECB decision on December 4th. The ECB soft monetary policy is giving its fruits: the unemployment decreased by 0.7% from the beginning of the year, while the real GDP has grown for the first nine months by 1.79%. According to the second indicator, the euro zone is behind the US which has increased by 2.53%. The German 10-year government bond yields rose relative to their US and the UK counterparts which gives a moderate support for the single European currency. However the pair EUR/USD is trading in a flat.

As expected the PMI manufacturing sector came out worse than the consensus forecast amid the British goods competitiveness decline. The pair EUR/GBP has dropped by 5% from 1 October to 30 November. We do not expect high growth rates in the 2015 fourth quarter. The UK government bond yields decrease in relation to their US and Germany donds reduces the British assets investments attractiveness putting pressure on the Cable. The pair GBP/USD sharply fell.

The ISM manufacturing sector release disappointed traders with the weak data. The PMI has fallen below 50% the first time for the last three years which indicates the purchasing managers growing pessimism amid the oil and gas sector stagnation as well as the dollar revaluation. After the ISM release publication the US and Japanese government bond yields fell which signals the presence of bears. The pair dollar/yen grew after a decrease.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Eurozone published the employment positive release – the October unemployment rate fell to the level of 10.7%. The lowest unemployment rate was recorded in Germany (4.5%), and the highest rate was registered in Greece (24.6%) and Spain (21.6%). The US ADP number of employees’ data has been published (the previous value of 182K; the forecast of 191K). In fact the data came out at the level of 217K.

The pair EUR/USD recovered from the low of 1.0550, having reached the resistance near 1.0630. Then the pair fell again. The pair is trading in a flat.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0550 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0420 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK PMI construction sector index was published within the consensus forecast. On the one hand, the incomes growth increases the real estate demand. On the other hand, the mortgage interest rates moderate growth, combined with the property prices increase will deter potential buyers (the UK property has grown by 8.4% for the first ten months).

The pair GBP/USD rate rose to 1.5100, but then the pair sharply fell. The support levels of 1.5040 and 1.4970 were broken through. The level of 1.4900 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4830. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4970, the next one is at 1.5040.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the support level of 1.4900 break that will open the way for the level of 1.4830. Further on we expect a growth to 1.5100 where the pair may stop.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US new orders indicator also fell below 50%, only 5 out of 13 branches have reported about the orders increase. On the other hand, the employment indicator showed an increase by 3.7 p. and has risen above 50% level which is a positive factor for the Friday's Non-Farm release. The oil and gas sector as well as the auto industry continues to claim about the staff reduction. This report is the first wake-up call for the US economy as a whole and the dollar in particular.

The pair USD/JPY played its growth out at the beginning of the week, having fallen below the level of 123.20. Initially, the pair showed a sharp fall then the quotes have slightly recovered. The trades closed above the level of 123.20.

The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target – 123.80. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 124.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Dec 06, 2015 12:37 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

According to the Fed governor Janet Yellen the too long interest rates growth delay creates certain risks. The FED governor once again noted the labor market positive dynamics which would contribute to the inflation target level completion in the long run.

The NFP was last Friday main event. The report came in better than it was forecasted that may become an additional reason to hike the rate on December 16th. In economic news, the ISM services and manufacturing sector releases came in at the level of 200 thousand.

The ECB decision to increase the stimulating package by 420 billion euro to 1 April 2017 caused the market mixed reaction. Instead of the price reduction the strong growth was observed. Analysts believe that the current dollar sales wave is just a correction as the market has achieved considerable highs. The ECB decision is a negative factor for the euro in the medium term as the QE program increased by 41%.

The pair GBP/USD also showed an impressive growth amid the US currency general weakness. The UK statistical support gave additional support to the pound. The November service sector business activity index rose sharply to 55.9 from 54.9 while analysts had expected a modest increase up to 55.0.
The USD/JPY could not resist the widespread dollar sales wave. Still the pair managed to grow after a sharp decrease earlier.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Besides the monetary policy slight easing the European regulator raised its forecast for the region GDP in the current year to 1.5% from 1.4% while the inflation forecast remained at the level of 0.1%. The 2016 and 2017 inflation forecasts or were revised towards the negative side that deprives the euro opportunities for significant strengthening. According to Mario Draghi the abundance liquidity period will be long.

The support resides at the 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The resistance comes in at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The northern movement will last until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670, the next one is 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US dollar general weakness and the stronger-than-expected British statistics have caused the pound sharp rise. After the industrial and construction sectors production slowdown, investors expected the services sector weakness, still the sector business activity report has shown a slight increase.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5040. The first resistance stands at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal one and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the resistance level of 1.5150 break that may open the way for the buyers to 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

After the US Federal Reserve D. Yellen performance the two-year Treasury bond yields increased to 1%, having set a new maximum for the last five and a half years. Thus the market believed in the FOMC interest rates hike on December 16.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 123.80 and 124.30.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

As Janet Yellen stated the Fed was ready to raise the interest rates. She just fears that the interest rates hike delay may complicate the monetary policy tightening in the short term which may lead the economy into recession.

The first support lies at 0.9960, the next one is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9960. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:40 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The labor market figures signal that the Fed interest rates increase on December 16th is quite possible. 509 thousand of new jobs have been created in the US economy, the average earnings increased by 0.6%. Such data can be regarded as inflationary which allows the FED to increase the discount rate since 2006.

The pair euro/dollar has shown a relative stability after the US last week important release, feeling the support after the ECB meeting results when the regulator limited the deposit rate decrease and prolonged the buying assets program for seven months. The Germany good data supported the euro as well: the industrial orders sharply recovered by 1.8% m/m after 0.7% decrease the previous month.

The Sterling is very much pinned downwards (the price has fallen down by 3.3% for the last month). There is one week before the US Federal Reserve meeting now it is the time for an upward correction. The commodity market instability is supporting the US dollar which also had a negative impact on the pound.

Japan has reported about the average wage size increase by 0.7% in annual terms which exceeded the traders’ expectations. The wage growth is an inflation indicator which has traditionally a positive impact on the national currency. However, investors ignored the positive release - the Japanese yen strong strengthening did not happen that indicates the strong buyers presence. The pair dollar/yen showed a growth by the end of the trades.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Monday was not rich in important macroeconomic events. We highlight the October Germany industrial production. The Markit PMI indicator is showing moderately positive trend. Considering the previous month low base we expect the industrial production volume growth. Nevertheless, the data came out less then forecasted 0,7% at the level of 0,2%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0925. After breaking 1.0925 the buyers may go to 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields significantly grew relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increased the investment attractiveness into the British assets and supported the pound. In the absence of the UK releases and important events the pair dynamics was mainly driven by technical factors and the dollar general partial recovery.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is at 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 1.5100 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 1.5150 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency showed some attempts to strengthen, but it could not get full support from the Japanese consumer confidence data. The November confidence indicator rose to 42.6 from 41.5 while analysts had expected the more modest improvement to 41.8.

The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 123.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 124.30 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Dec 08, 2015 2:49 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Eurozone GDP third quarter data was published: 0,3% q/q and 1,6 y/y. The September household spending and industrial production reports came out negative. The unemployment rate fell to 0.3% in the period from July to September, but the positive macroeconomic effect will manifest itself with a time lag and the Old World economy will not get high dividends in the third quarter. The pair EUR/USD slightly increased by the end of the trades.

The UK October industrial production data was published. The Markit manufacturing sector business climate pointed to the positive output data. The PMI has reached the highest level for the last 16 months in October amid the industrial output growth. According to the Industrialists British Confederation, we should not count on the industrial production significant growth because of the industrial orders negative balance. The release showed a growth by 0,1% according to the forecasted median. However, the pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The October current account transactions release pleased traders with the strong data. The Japanese and the US differential government bond yields have declined which increased the investments’ attractiveness in the Japanese assets. Traders were cutting "risky assets" positions supporting demand for the yen as a funding currency. The dollar/yen decreased by the end of the day.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single European currency has entered the correction phase for several days. In addition to the European stock market rally, the Germany industrial production weak data pressure the euro quotes. The November index rebounded to + 0.2% m/m, after a decline by 1.1%, but it did not meet market expectations at the level of + 0.7%. At the same time the annual value fell to 0.0% from 0.2%. The Sentix investors’ sentiment report disappointed the euro - the index was 15.7 against the expected 17.0 points.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670, the next one is 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK government bond yields fell relative to their US and Germany counterparts reducing the British assets investments’ attractiveness. The pair fell not only because of the dollar purchases, but also because of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speech who ultimately did not say any important market comments.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4970, the next one is at 1.4900. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5040, the next one is at 1.5100.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4970, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4900.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair dynamics remains bearish. Japan pleased traders with the positive macroeconomic statistics. Initially, the yen was pressured by the Bank of Japan Kuroda comments who pointed to the QQE program effectiveness. He also promised to take further measures to ensure financial stability. Despite the dollar growth, the price growth was limited.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the resistance level of 123.20 break that will open the way for the buyers to 123.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Dec 09, 2015 2:18 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro zone GDP has not been revised for any changes - the third quarter growth was 0.3%. The real GDP has amounted to 7357.9 billion euros for the first nine months of this year which is 1.79% higher than in the same period in 2014. The Germany October trade balance report has been published: 20,8B against the forecasted 20,0B. The euro index strengthened by 1.2% in the third quarter. By the end of the trades on Wednesday the pair euro/dollar increased.

The British currency is demonstrating weakness. The pound did not update the December 2nd low (1.4893) which fits into the corrective scenario. The UK government bond yields declined relative to their US and Germany counterparts, reducing the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. The trades on the pair pound/dollar closed with the British currency growth.

Japan updated the third quarter GDP, the indicator was revised from -0.2% to 0.3%. The Japanese yen has increased amid the lack of the US important macroeconomic statistics. The lack of investors' risk appetite played into the “bears" hands. The market is trading in anticipation of the FOMC meeting on December 15-16. The pair dollar/yen sharply fell by the end of the trades.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone third quarter GDP final data did not move the euro as the result coincided with the forecasts and with the preliminary estimate which does not look impressive. The region economy grew by 0.3% q/q and 1.6% y/y in the last quarter. The euro received the main support from the purchases as a funding currency amid the risk aversion that put pressure on the stock indices.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.0925, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.0800.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US ambiguous statistics remained practically unnoticed. Last month the industrial production volume increased by 0.1% m/m and 1.7% y/y, having exceeded the forecast by 0.0% and 1.2% respectively. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector production declined by 0.4% m/m and 0.1% y/y, having confound expectations of 0.0% and 0.1%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a posiive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.5150. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese GDP final annual rate was sharply revised upwards to 1.0% against a decline by 0.8% previously and the modest forecast by 0.1% in the third quarter. The yen purchases were caused by the escape from risky assets as well as the Japanese favorable data.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 123.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Dec 10, 2015 3:11 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US published jobless claims report. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than forecasted 269 thousand having increased to 282 thousand. We believe that the EUR/USD pair correctional phase has approached to its end. The United States pleased traders with the retail sales strong data cheering "bears" to short. The US and the Germany government bond yields have grown which increased the investment’ attractiveness in the US assets. Markets expect that the FOMC will raise its key rate by 0.25% on December 16th which strengthened the Fed and the ECB monetary policy divergence that will contribute to the single European currency reduction. The pair euro/dollar showed a decrease by the end of the trades yesterday.

The UK government bond yields rose relative to their US and Germany counterparts which supported the demand for the British assets. The Bank of England monetary policy meeting has been held. The UK inflation has been 0.16% for the first ten months of this year which is 0.62% less than in the same period in 2014. The labor market is showing a stable positive dynamics at the same time: the unemployment rate for the first three quarters of this year decreased by 0.4% to the mark of 5.3% while the average earnings growth for the third quarter amounted to 3% in annual terms. The pair pound/dollar slightly decreased.

The Japanese and the US differential government bond yields increased the investment’ attractiveness into the US assets supporting the demand for the dollar. The high-tech sector was the decline leader in the North American and European equity markets and the growth leader was the "protective" communal sector. However after a short-term growth the pair dollar/yen decreased.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro short-term correction cycle is coming to its logical conclusion. The pair EUR/USD proved to be one of the major beneficiaries of the risky assets sales, connected with the commodities market collapse. The pair was also supported by the Germany trade balance data. The November trade surplus amounted to 20.8 billion euros in the Eurozone largest country against the forecast of 20 billion and the previous value at the level of 19.2 billion.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0925 breakthrough the downward movement will be continued. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0800 and 1.0730



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pair confidently moved north, having slightly corrected from the highs after the oil sharp fall after the recent correction that had previously suported the Sterling growth. Great Briatin has published its October trade balance. The trade balance was expected -11,83V against -9,70V.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the trades in a flat between the resistance level of 1.5200 and the support level of 1.5150.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The downward trend is continued amid the "risk assets" positions cutting. The pair USD/JPY fell victim to the yen status as a safe-haven currency. Besides the dollar growth and the Nikkei index the macroeconomic statistics supported the yen. After the GDP recent favorable data Japan published the machinery and equipment orders report which have slowed the November decline to -17.9% y / y from -22.9% previously.

The price is finding the first support at 121.30, the next one is 120.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 122.40, the next one is at 123.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 122.40 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 121.30, 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc stopped the downward movement. The Swiss National Bank kept the interest rates unchanged at the mark of 0.75%. The franc showed mixed trading against other majors after the interest rate publication.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 0.9960 further on we expect a fall to 0.9850 and 0.9750.





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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:00 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

Still the US macroeconomic data is encouraging. Despite the commodity market sales, the November PPI was better than the consensus forecast. The retail sales report was in line with the traders’ expectations, still the "control group" indicator which is closely correlated with the PCE index came in at 0.2% higher than the consensus forecast. The indicator had risen to 0.8% for the first two months of the fourth quarter which forms a stable foundation for the quarterly GDP strong data.

The euro is in demand as a funding currency before the FED meeting. The October euro zone industrial production release has come out at the level of 0,6% against the forecasted 0,3%. The manufacturing sector PMI came in within the consensus forecast. The negative factor for the European industry was the euro strengthening by 4.2% in the second and third quarter which caused the products competitiveness decrease. The ECB President Draghi supported the bond purchases program on Monday. In addition, he noted that the regulator was ready to use all the policy instruments to achieve the price stability. The pair euro/dollar increased by the end of the day.

The lack of the US and the UK important macroeconomic statistics drew our attention to the debt and commodity markets. The UK and the US government bond yields showed a moderate reduction. The oil and industrial metals ended the trading week in a red zone. The markets may remain volatile till the FED meeting on December 16th. The pair pound/dollar decreased.

The Japan manufacturing sector is now experiencing some difficulties amid the Chinese economic growth slowdown as well as the new orders reduction. It is impossible to ignore the world leading stock exchanges sales. The pair dollar/yen continued the decrease.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro growth is still regarded as a correction, primarily caused by the European stock markets risk aversion. Meanwhile, economic releases keep the pair indifferent. The Germany inflation publication was in line with the forecasts at the level of +0.1% m/m and +0.4% y/y.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. After the support level of 1.0925 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0800 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Due to the UK empty economic calendar traders mainly focused on the dollar dynamics. The pound did not react to the IMF sufficient negatively comments. The Fund has recommended the Bank of England to keep the rates at the low levels for a longer period, making it clear that it did not expect the country inflation quick growth. However, the traders' interest in dollar sales helped the pound to ignore the IMF statements. The pair was supported by the US retail sales report did not reach forecasts.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the trades in a flat between the levels of 1.5200 and 1.5150.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of China intention to weaken the yuan binding to the dollar pressured the yen. In addition, the Japanese GDP became the recent driver for the yen when the report did not confirm the country technical recession.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 120.35 and 119.35.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Dec 15, 2015 3:17 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The single European currency decline is a positive factor for the German economy as the weak euro supports the net exports growth. The ZEW index has been published. The data came out at the level of 16,1, that is better then forecasted 15,0. The German industrial volume output has fallen by 0.91%, it declined by 0.27% for the same period in 2014. The core inflation grew by 2% on an annualized basis that is a positive factor for the dollar after the Fed total monetary policy meeting results publication. The US and the German government bond yields have decreased which played into the "bears" hands. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar decreased.

The November UK and the US inflation reports became the determining factor for the GBP/USD pair. The data in Britain came out at the forecasted level of 0,1%. The data in USA came out also at the forecasted level of 0,2%. Today FED will make its verdict on the monetary policy. We expect a high volatility. We noticed that both economies show the similar tendency: the population employment and incomes growth contributes to the private consumption that happening against the petroleum products price lowering. The oil market sales caused the UK government bond yields decline which in turn is a negative factor for the British currency as it reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets.

The USD/JPY bulls tried to develop an upward correction in the US stock market; still their efforts have not brought the desired dividends. The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 were the decline leaders which signaled about the lack of investors’ appetite to take risks. However the pair dollar/yen sharply increased after a decrease.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone latest news left the pair almost indifferent, despite the fact that the regional October industrial production index has shown an impressive recovery to 0.6% m/m from -0.3% previously vs. + 0.3%. The annual value was 1.9% against the expected 1.3%. Once again the European stock market mood became the main driver for the pair.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0800 and 1.0730.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The oil prices are the main factor that causing the Sterling decline. The pound is vulnerable to the US purchases on expectations about the Fed rate hike.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is at 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5040 and 1.4970 soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen decline was triggered by the improved sentiment in the Asian stock markets after trading in the "red" zone. According to the statistics, the Japanese industrial production is in line with expectations at the level of + 1.4% m/m and -1.4% y/y in October while the service sector business activity index increased by 0.9%, having recovered after recession by 0.4%.

The first support resides at 121.30, the next one is 120.40. The first resistance stands at 122.40, the next one is at 123.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 123.20




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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Dec 17, 2015 3:25 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Fed raised the key interest rates for the first time since 2006. The GDP and the unemployment long term forecasts were moderately revised towards the positive direction, on the other hand, the inflation rate was moderately revised towards the negative direction. The US dollar revaluation had a negative impact on exporters, so that the third quarter negative trade balance amounted to 133.7 billion dollars which is 6.21% more than in the same period in 2014. The US published the number of jobless claims report for the last week. The data came out at the level of 271 thousand; the forecasted median was 275 thousand.

The IFO Institute published the December Germany business sentiment index which came out at the level of 108.7. The pair euro/dollar showed a decrease.

The British currency has ignored the inflation and the employment moderately positive data. The retail sales forecasted medians were higher in November that supported the pound. The October average earnings report showed the growth rate slowdown which is a negative factor for the retail sector. The UK consumer confidence index fell to 1p in November which had been the lowest level for five months. There was a decrease in the pair GBP/USD.

The US and the Japanese government bond yields have increased after the FOMC decision to raise interest rates which increased the investment attractiveness into the US assets and contributed to the dollar demand. The low energy prices have forced the Bank of Japan to revise its inflation forecasts. The Japanese November trade balance report has already been published: 0.0 trillion yen from 0.20 trillion yen. The pair dollar/yen was growing.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

As we expected the published statistics remained without any traders’ attention. The PMI euro zone preliminary estimates pointed out to the regional solid growth. In particular, the Germany manufacturing sector business activity index has risen to 53 while the same regional index rose up to 53.1. The services sector indicators did not meet our expectations, however, it has shown a good result, having remained above the critical level of 50.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0730 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0630 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

The UK labor market secondary data did not add optimism to markets. Last month the number of jobless claims increased by 3.9 thousand. The unemployment rate remained at the level of 2.3% that is in line with the analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, the average wage, taking into account premiums, increased by 2.4% y / y. The ILO statistics just became the "bright spot"- the unemployment rate fell to 5.2% from 5.3%. The UK retail sales volume came out at the level of 1.7 (m/m) and 5.0% (y/y) against the forecast of 0.5% (m/m) and 3.0% (y/y).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4970.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4830 and 1.4760.



Yen

General overview

The pair USD/JPY has increased. The Japanese secondary report left the pair indifferent. The PMI manufacturing sector Nikkei pointed out to the slight growth slowdown - the indicator amounted to 52.5 against 52.6 in November.

The first support resides at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The first resistance stands at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 123.20, the next one is 123.80.



Franc

General overview

The pair continued its weak upward movement. The dollar is near the two-week high against the basket of major currencies after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time for ten years. The pair has strengthened and broke through the resistance level of 0.9960.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9960, the next one is at 0.9850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Dec 20, 2015 1:14 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

21.12.2015

Fundamental analysis


The Germany IFO Institute release pointed out to the wholesale and retail trade business climate reduction. The manufacturing sector business activity grew this week. The upward trend has been continued. The Germany and the US government bond yields grew as well. The ECB and the Fed December decisions does not leave investors with no choice and sent their capital into the dollar and Treasury bonds purchase. The "black gold" market negative expectations were on the "bulls" hand within the US dollar. The US crude oil stocks have once again increased, the US Congress lifted the ban on the crude oil import. However by the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD slightly increased.

The Cable was not able to strengthen its position against the greenback that indicates the strong sellers’ presence. The November US Core CPI index showed a growth by 2% in annual terms which allowed the FOMC a sigh of relief before the interest rates verdict announcement. By the end of the week the pair pound/dollar slightly fell.

The Bank of Japan monetary policy results have been published. The Bank of Japan corrected the quantitative easing program. The central bank will buy government bonds and shares in the Japanese stock market with an average maturity of 7-12 years government bonds before the repayment period was 7-10 years. The assets purchases annual volume remained unchanged with 80 trillion yen. In addition the Bank of Japan corrects the policy in connection to the oil prices trend changes. The trades on the pair USD/JPY closed with a decrease.




Technical analysis


Euro

General overview

The regional industrial production volume has considerably recovered by 0.5% in October. However, the annual rate pointed to the slowdown from 1.8% to 1.1%. The ECB representative Nowotny statements that the ECB can correct the monetary policy unconventional instruments in both directions remained absolutely unnoticed.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go downward to the support level of 1.0800 and 1.0730.




Pound

General overview

The dollar purchases continue to “put pressure” to the low oil prices which fell downwards to the long-term lows. Prices have not been able to receive tangible support after the UK retail sales strong publication. Last month the index recovered by 1.7% m / m and 5.0% y / y from -0.5% and 4.2% previously.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4970.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4830 soon. The next target is the support level of 1.4760.



Yen

General overview

The pair dynamics was due to the dollar growth, the Japanese data did not affect the quotations mood. The trade deficit amounted to 379.7 billion yuan against the expected -446.2 billion. The exports index declined by 3.3% y / y vs. -1.5% and -2.2% previously. Imports fell by 10.2% from the October value of -13.4% while slowdown was expected to -8.3%.

The first support resides at 121.30, the next one is 120.40. The first resistance stands at 122.40, the next one is at 123.20.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider long positions with the first target – 122.40. After fixing above the first target, the level 123.20 will become the next one.



Franc

General overview

The dollar index reached the two-week high against the basket of major currencies after the Federal Reserve raised the interest rates, having thereby increased the US assets attractiveness. Experts expected the rates gradual increase, but still faster than it was earlier expected.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9960, the next one is at 0.9850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:46 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The economic calendar is empty, there was not published any interesting macroeconomic statistics. In this regard, the EUR/USD course is determined by the debt and equity markets dynamics. The US and the German government bond yields showed a growth which increased the US assets investment’ attractiveness supporting the demand for the greenback. The equity markets long positions and high-yield cross rates pointed out to the lack of "risk appetite" among investors. However, after a decrease the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

The GBP/USD bears have taken a breath. The UK government bond yields have grown in relation to their US and Germany counterparts which increased the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. The Cable could not realize even a deep correction - investors have opened short positions that have caused a new round of the prices decline. The pair pound/dollar was trading in a flat.

The USD/JPY quotations showed moderate decrease after the "risky assets" escape. Investors closed their longs which supported the demand for the yen as a funding currency. The "protective" utilities sector was the growth leader in the US stock market, still the financial sector and the basic materials’ sector showed a decline. Such positioning points out to the pessimism growth. The Bank of Japan indicated the inflation expectations decline because of the hydrocarbon low prices which is a negative factor for the yen. After a decrease the pair dollar/yen was trading in a side corridor.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The November Germany producer price index showed the biggest annual fall in nearly six years, mainly due to lower energy prices. According to the Federal Statistics Office Destatis, Germany's producer price index in November fell 0.2% m / m and 2.5% y / y. The euro area payments balance release with the surplus amounted to 20.4 billion euros compared to the previous value of 29.4 billion remained unnoticed. Meanwhile, the pair EUR/USD mainly focused on the stock market’s mood.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0800, the next one is 1.0730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050. After breaking 1.1050 the buyers may go to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The British currency was not able to take advantage of the dollar widespread weakening in Asian session. The pound is under pressure amid the strong dollar as well as the Bank of England rate hike prospects after the inflation forecast worsening and the country wages increase slowdown. The UK withdrawal from the EU is an additional risk factor which from time to time makes the Sterling fell.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4970.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.4970. If the price falls it will get to 1.4830.



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan meeting results were the yen growth reason. The BoJ announced the easing monetary policy measures. In particular, the regulator stated that the rate would continue to increase the monetary base by 80 trillion yen in annual terms and decided to allocate 300 billion yen for the ETF purchase. The central bank extended the purchased bonds maturity from 10 to 12 years and decided to start it from the next year.

The first support resides at 121.30, the next one is 120.40. The first resistance stands at 122.40, the next one is at 123.20.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks the level of 121.30 up it will open the way to the resistance level of 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:42 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

23.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market attention was focused on the US statistics. The third quarter final GDP data was expected not be revised downwards and would remain at the same level as it was noted in the second release. The strong labor market helped the private consumption to increase which is a welcome factor for the US economy. However the data came out at he level of 2% against the forecasted 1,9%. The secondary market home sales data can also be a pleasant surprise. The November mortgage lending volume was 1.26% compared to the previous month that indicates that the real estate sales increase, both primary and secondary markets. However the data came out at the level of 4,47M against the forecasted 5,35%. The pair euro/dollar showed a growth by the end of the trades.

The key factors point out to the downtrend continuation. Firstly, the US and the UK government bond yield are expanding which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the US assets and it will contribute to the dollar demand. Secondly, the Brent crude is now trading near the 11-year low which is also a positive factor for the US dollar as the raw materials cost denominated in dollars. The pair GBP/USD decreased by the en of the trades.

The pair USD/JPY declined again, having continued last Friday's decline, although at a slower pace. Initially, all Japanese economic sectors activity index report which grew by 1.0% after decline by 0.2% supported the yen.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro area consumer confidence preliminary report, reflecting the indicator improvement to -5.7 from -5.9, supported the pair. The Bundesbank governor Weidman comments also supported the EUR/USD. The governor hopes the Eurozone economic recovery to accelerate next year. The Germany import prices report has been published (-0.2% m/m vs. -0.3% m/m) and the consumer confidence report showed 9.4 vs. 9.30.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The British currency is quite sensitive to the oil prices further decline, preventing the pair recovery even in conditions of the fading interest in the dollar purchases. Another negative factor was the British Industry Confederation retail trade report where the sales balance amounted to 19 against the expected 21, still it has grown significantly in comparison with the previous value of 7.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the trading in a flat at the level of 1.4830 further on we expect a growth to 1.4900.



Yen

General overview

The US secondary market housing sales data can make a pleasant surprise. The November mortgage lending growth was 1.26% compared to the previous month that indicates the real estate sales increase, both primary and secondary markets. However the data came out less then forecasted median: 4,76M against 5,35M.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation between the levels of 120.40 and 121.30 will be continued now. Then we expect the level of 119.20 testing soon.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Dec 23, 2015 1:35 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

Despite the lack of the growth drivers the Euro has strengthened its position. The world leading stock markets have showed a corrective growth. The EUR/USD pair showed a growth amid the inflation and economic growth pessimistic expectations. The United States published a block of important macroeconomic statistics. The employment and the average earnings increase has caused the world largest economy consumer activity growth. Nevertheless the published releases disappointed the market. The durable goods base orders in November came out at the level of -0,1% (m/m) against the forecasted 0,1%(m/m), the new home sales in November came out at the level of 490K against the forecasted 505K. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD slightly decreased.

The UK National Statistics Office published the third quarter payments balance. The pound revaluation against the euro contributed to the trade deficit increase as British goods reduced their competitiveness abroad. At the end of the third quarter the negative net exports amounted to 31.97 billion pounds which is 20.2% more than in the second quarter and is higher by 0.53% than in the same period of 2014. The seasonal factor also indicates the negative balance increase: capital outflows from the United Kingdom. The third quarter the UK GDP came in lower then it was forecasted: 0,4% (q/q) and 2,1% (y/y) against 0,5% (q/q) and 2,3% (y/y). The pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a slight decrease.

Japanese banks were closed on the occasion of the national holiday that caused the sluggish trade. The financial sector was the growth leader in the European and the North American stock markets as indicates the investors' risk appetite presence and thus put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The US GDP final data for the third quarter came out slightly better than the consensus forecast at the level of 2% which contributed to the US and Japanese government bond yields. A slight decrease was noted in the pair USD/JPY.



Technical analysis


Euro

General overview

The Germany statistics has been showed that the consumer confidence index rose up to 9.4 against the forecast and the previous value at the level of 9.3. The November import prices report supported the euro. The US secondary housing market sales sharp decline has led to the dollar sales. However the dollar strengthened against the euro by the end of the trades on Wednesday.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross’. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0800 and 1.0730.




Pound

General overview

The UK data pointed out to the net borrowing volume growth to £ 13.5 billion against the forecast of 11.0 billion and the previous value of 6.7 billion. The US GDP report has demonstrated the US currency vulnerability. The US second homes sales index was weak which has supported the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4970.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation will be continued now. Then we suppose the pair will go to 1.4900 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4970.




Yen

General overview

The Japanese economic calendar was empty due to the public holiday. The market focused on the US durable goods basic orders and the new home sales data in November 490K against the forecasted 505K and -0,1% (m/m) against the forecasted 0,1%(m/m) respectively.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

When the price consolidates it may go to the level 120.40. The way to the mark 119.20 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Dec 27, 2015 8:12 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Euro ignored the negative background amid the increasing demand for the "risk assets" - the world leading stock markets showed growth from 2% to 4%. The US published the third quarter GDP moderately positive macroeconomic data, durable goods orders, personal consumption expenditure and the new buildings sales; however, it did not bring the desired dividends to the dollar. On Thursday the German banks were closed, the US trading session ended few hours earlier. The trades on the pair EUR/USD closed with a growth. There were not any trades on Friday. The whole Western world celebrated Christmas, the most important holiday of the year.

The UK National statistics office revised the UK GDP second estimate for the third quarter from 0.5% to 0.4%. The economic growth rate has been 2.4% for the first nine months, compared to the same period last year. There was the UK clear economic slowdown. The construction and manufacturing sectors were the most vulnerable sectors which decreased by 1.93% and 0.22% respectively in the third quarter of this year. The US third quarter GDP growth also slowed down. Last year the UK was ahead the United States by 0.5% and this year it falls short by 0.1%. The UK government bond yields are growing relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness in the British assets. The commodity market prices stabilization is also plays into the "bulls" hands now. The pair pound/dollar increased by the end of the trades.

The important macroeconomic releases that could act as a driver for the dollar or the yen have not been published. In general, the United States pleased traders with the positive macroeconomic statistics, but investors have completely ignored the positive news background which indicates the lack of interest in the dollar. The BoJ Governor Kuroda confirmed the Bank commitment to do what it was necessary to overcome the deflation, planning to achieve the 2% inflation target. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis


Euro

General overview

The number of the US initial jobless claims amounted to 267K while 270K was forecasted . The investors’ increased optimism put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The Eurozone has not published any reports. The US favorable economic releases suggested the Fed monetary policy normalization possibility in case of the current trend preservation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross’. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The UK published a series of economic reports that have had an impact on the pound dynamics last week. The current deficit account narrowed to -17.460 billion pounds against the expected £ -21.500 in the third quarter which supported the currency. The negative GDP data have been revised downwards - to 0,4% q/q and 2,1% y/y from 0,5% and 2,3% respectively.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4830. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4970, the next one is at 1.5040.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a ‘Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4970 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5040.



Yen

General overview

The yen was deprived with the growth drivers in the absence of interest to the risk-free assets. Interest in the dollar still prevailed amid the strong US data. Only by the end of the trades the situation changed and the pair dollar/yen fell.

The first support resides at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The first resistance stands at 120.40, the next one is at 121.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 121.30 and 122.40.



Franc

General overview


After the disappointing economic statistics the dollar fell. The US capital goods orders, the private sector investments indicator showed a decline by 0.4% last month while the US capital goods orders showed a decline by 0.5% in November, the rate is taken into account for the quarterly economic growth calculation.

The first support resides at 0.9850, the next one is 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider long positions with the first target - 0.9960. After fixing above the first target, the level 1.0100 will become the next one.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:49 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.
29.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs were traded without significant drivers. The pair EUR/USD showed the bullish sentiment on Monday. Last week, investors completely ignored the positive news flow on the US dollar which indicates the strong buyers presence. The important macroeconomic statistics is not expected before the NY and the bulls are trying to disperse the quotes up on less liquid markets. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a growth.

The pound remained under pressure amid a general distancing prospects of the Bank of England rate hike. Traders expected it to happen in the first quarter of next year. However, the weak UK statistics brought some changes in the forecasts. The UK published the secondary housing market report - according to the BBA, the number of approved mortgage loans fell to 44,960 from 45,463 vs. 46,200 in the country. The pair pound/dollar fell by the end of the trades.

The initial catalyst for the yen strengthening was the Kuroda's comments where he expressed confidence that the economy was on track to achieve the 2% target level of consumer prices. However, he made it clear that the regulator would continue to stay within the QQE framework. The pair dollar/yen showed a slight decrease amid this background.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The US labor market strong data did not make much of an impression on prices. Last week, the initial claims number dropped to 267 thousand. from 272 thousand earlier. Traders expected 270 thousand. There were no important releases from the EU. The overseas economic releases show positive figures, the Fed may accelerate the monetary policy normalization if the current trend is continued.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price action is above the Cloud and is heading upwards. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. Ichimoku Cloud is neutral now.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair could escalate up to 1.1050. Alternatively, we expect the EUR/USD to fall to 1.0925.




Pound

General overview

There was a Boxing Day holiday on Monday in the UK. The Sterling recovered after the third quarter UK payment balance optimistic report. Last week the UK government bonds grew in relation to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the Cable investment attractiveness and thereby support the demand for the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4900, the next one is at 1.4970.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price continued to advance south. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations


Technically, the main trend is down. The upcoming news won’t be able to drive the Forex pair lower. We see the level of 1.4970 as the first growth target if the pair keeps its north direction. Shall the pair return to a fall we shall see it at the level of 1.4830 soon.




Yen

General overview

Japan has published a series of statistical reports for November: the preliminary industrial production data came in at -1.0% m/m vs. 1.4% m/m (the forecast was 0.6%); the retail sales volume came in at -1.0% y/y vs. 1.8% y/y (the forecast was 0.6%).

The first support resides at 119.20, the next is at 118.40. The first resistance stands at 120.40, the next one is at 121.30.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and we expect its further decline. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the decrease will be continued now. The targets are the levels 119.20 and 118.40. We do not exclude the growth to 120.40 and 121.30.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Dec 29, 2015 1:24 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.12.2015

Fundamental analysis

We highlight the Conference Board consumer confidence report. The December Michigan University indicator showed growth against the strong labor market background, allowing to calculate the Conference Board positive data output. The data came out at the level of 96,5p. that is better then forecasted 93,0p.

The stock exchange showed some pessimism: the banking sector became the decline leaders. This factor supported the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The trade is still sluggish due to the low-liquid market. However the pair EUR/USD slightly fell.

London bank reopened its doors for customers. Given the low liquidity and lack of important macroeconomic statistics, investors pay attention to the commodity market dynamics, especially in the "black gold". The Brent determines the Cable course of trading. The pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The Japanese macroeconomic statistics once again upset the traders. The statistics showed a personal consumption decrease in November which is a negative factor for the economic growth. The industrial production decreased by 0.3%. However, the Old World and North America leading stock markets pessimism prevails that is a positive environment for safe assets which traditionally includes the Japanese yen. The pair USD/JPY is trading in a flat.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB Mersch regulator's statements regarding the further monetary policy easing readiness, alongside with the deposit rates decrease did not cause noticeable reaction on the pair, as a matter of fact, the Speaker did not say anything new. In addition, the single currency was kept afloat by the flight from risky assets.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price action is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the level of 1.1050 breakthrough the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1150. We do not exclude the falls to 1.0800.




Pound


General overview

The Cable finishes the year near the 7-month low. The Bank of England uncertain position regarding the interest rates hike is a downward movement driver for the Sterling. The Bank is still the "second in line" after the Fed, the time-limit when the Regulator may change the rates is moved significantly, given the weak inflationary pressures, sluggish wage growth, conflicting data on business activity and politicians' cautious statements.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price continued to advance south. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.4830 further on we expect a consolidation.




Yen

General overview

Many investors are already beginning to celebrate the New Year. Moreover, traditional holidays volatility is falling and we do not expect any important statistics till the end of the week.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and we expect its further decline. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation will be continued now at the level of 120.40.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Jan 03, 2016 5:37 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

04.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

There was a mixed trend at the Forex market last trading week of the year, some pairs even showed an increased volatility in their trading. The dollar resumed its growth against its competitors, having received support from the positive sentiment in the stock markets as well as strong data from the US. In general, traders’ activity continued to fall on the eve of the New Year holidays.

The dollar purchases alongside with the stock markets positive sentiment and favorable statistics from the United States became the driver for the EUR/USD downward dynamics resumption. In particular, prices, contrary to the predictions, kept the growth rate of 5.5% and the consumer confidence in December jumped to 96.5 versus the expected 93.8 and the previous value of the index at 90.4. The recent figures again indicated that the US economy is in great shape and is ready to tighten monetary policy further even more rapid pace.

As for the pair GBPUSD, the pound decreased amid the Cable fundamental weakness due to the recent sharp deterioration of macroeconomic data (inflation slowdown, the GDP decline), which has taken away from the markets hope for a rate hike by the Bank of England next year. The pair pound/dollar slightly corrected upwards by the end of the trades.

The USDJPY showed the most restrained dynamics. The pair’s movement is limited by the resistance around 121.30 and the support at 120.40 area. However, even strong statistics from the United States was unable to revive the pair.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview


The German government bonds rose relative to their US and the UK counterparts which increases the investments attractiveness in European assets and thereby supports the demand for euro. Nevertheless, the euro slightly fell.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price action is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

When the price consolidates below the level of 1.0925 it may go to the level 1.0800.




Pound

General overview

We see a mixed background of the British currency. The 10-year UK government bonds decline relative to their US and Germany reduces the British assets attractiveness adding a downward pressure on the pound. The Cable situation is worst among the major currencies on the current US dollar corrective phase. The pound increased only by the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will trade in a flat between the levels of 1.4760-1.4830.



Yen

General overview

The world's leading stock indices show a rising trend alongside with the high-yield cross-rates in the currency market. Such dynamics indicates growth "risk appetite" among investors which is traditionally a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.30 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.




Franc

General overview

The franc strengthened against its main rivals. According to forecasts the Switzerland GDP may increase by 1% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016. The National Bank of Switzerland policy also has a huge impact the franc dynamics. The ongoing EUR/CHF intervention limits the franc growth as well.

The first support lies at 0.9850 and then at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

The price action is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9960. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0100



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:13 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The last trading day of 2015 was marked by the dollar strengthening against its major rivals. Most of the traders left the market earlier to celebrate the Catholic Christmas and the New Year. The weak US data did not stop the EUR/USD from growth. The weekly unemployment benefits rose by 20K to the mark 287 000. In economic news, the Chicago Fed business activity index came in at 42.9, not much short of the forecast of 49.8.

In the middle of last week, the ECB reported about the November private sector lending growth, the rate was 1.4% in annual terms which is the highest level in the past year. Monday trading was revived due to the planned statistics. The euro area countries published the manufacturing business activity. Germany surfaced the inflation report: 0,3% y/y and -0,1% m/m against forecasted 0,6% y/y и 0,2% m/m. The Germany PMI in manufacturing business came out at the level 53,2 against forecasted 53,0. The pair euro/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

The UK published money supply report 0,4% m/m against the forecasted 0,5% m/m. The Britain PMI in manufacturing business came out at the level 51,9 against forecasted 52,7. The 10-year UK government bonds yield is growing relative to their counterparts from the US and Germany, which supports the demand for the pound. However, the trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a decrease.

The US and Japanese government bond yield differential exceeded the level of 200 pp which increases the US assets investment attractiveness. The pair USD/JPY showed a growth by the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro lost 10% over the past year while it declined by 12% in 2014. In December, the pair returned a part of the losses due to the November two key Central Banks careful actions - the ECB refrained from a large-scale stimulus, the Fed raised its rate by 0.25%. The fact that the US regulator began the monetary policy normalization while the rest of the world central banks including the ECB continue their soft policy. This factor is likely to continue to provide support to the greenback in the coming year.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0800 and 1.0730 soon.



Pound

General overview

The Cable is still under strong "bearish" pressure amid the UK economy weak forecasts and the negative prospects for the Bank of England interest rates growth.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4700, the next one is at 1.4630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4830.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4760 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4830.



Yen

General overview

Traders bought the yen as a safe haven when the Chinese market fell more than 7%, while Japanese's stock index lost 3%. The Japanese industrial sector business activity index showed growth to 52.6 in December from 52.5 in November. The US published the manufacturing sector PMI from ISM report at the level of 48,2 against the forecasted median at 49,0.

The first support resides at 119.20, the next is at 118.40. The first resistance stands at 120.40, the next one is at 121.30.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations


The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.30.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Jan 05, 2016 12:40 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The China stock market drama had a direct impact on the currencies behavior. The China manufacturing sector business activity surfaced the PMI fall to 48.2 vs. expected of 48.9. Ten consecutive month of falling triggered a new wave of concern about the Chinese economy state and its potential impact on global GDP. This fact, coupled with the Middle East conflict escalation where Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic relations with Iran, provoked a strong wave of risk aversion.

The December Germany preliminary inflation data showed weak results: 0,2% against the forecasted median 0,3%. The USA statistics is disappointing as well. The manufacturing sector ISM has been below 50% for two consecutive months, indicating a business activity slowdown. The index fell to its lowest level since June 2009 in December. The pair euro/dollar showed a decrease.

The UK November number of mortgage approvals in 2015 amounted to 70.4 thousand which is 0.77% more than in the previous month and 18.81% more than in November 2014. That is the mortgage market which is the main growth driver in the real estate sector and in view of the above-described positive momentum we expected the construction sector PMI within the consensus forecast which may provide some support for the Cable. The data came out at the level of 57,8 against the forecasted 56,0. However the pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades.

The world stock indices collapse strengthened safe-haven assets. The main beneficiary was the yen. Still the followed USD buying changed the alignment of forces in the foreign exchange market. Nevertheless, after a slight correction the pair fell again.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In addition to a dollar general direction movement change the Germany inflation report has brought a bit of negative when the consumer prices growth index slowed to + 0.2% y/y from 0.3% while traders expected it to accelerate to 0.4%. The euro area inflation report was the key event of Tuesday that came out worse then forecasted median. In addition, Germany has surfaced labor market indicators: -14K and -6K.

The first support lies at 1.0730 and then at 1.0630. The first resistance stands at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showы a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0630, 1.0550.



Pound

General overview

Neither the British statistics bright data nor the weak US figures did not help the pound which is showing the downward trend still expecting the Bank of England rate hike in the coming year. We expect the Bank of England credit conditions report this week.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4700, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4630 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4560 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The yen rally against the dollar and the euro was stopped on Tuesday when the Chinese stock market started a recovery though traders are still not sure that the Chinese market reached its bottom. The yen still may strengthen expecting the BoJ monetary policy easing in the short term. The United States weak data may support the yen due to risk aversion. The United States published the New York ISM at the level of 716,6.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.20. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential targets are 119.20, 120.40.


*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Jan 06, 2016 12:17 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

Investors keep buying the dollar. Trading volumes are higher than in the same days last year. The euro area employment data pleased traders. The Spain unemployed number decreased by 55.8 thousand. vs. expected of 52.6 thousand. The same index is 55.8 thousand in Germany. The forecast was 52.6 thousand. The pair euro/dollar showed a slight growth.

The UK debt market is now set against the bulls: the 10-year UK government bonds yield is reduced relative to their US and Germany counterparts reducing the Cable investments attractiveness. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar decreased.

Now investors are more alarmed of the Chinese economy state than six months ago, having started buying the dollar. China conducted a currency intervention at 19.9 billion dollars to support the yuan. The operation was a success - the dollar fell from 6.54 yuan to 6.52. As about the pair dollar/yen – it showed a slight decrease.

The commodity currencies again suffered from the Chinese economy weak data releases. Australian and New Zealand dollars fell most of all.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

We noted the bearish sentiment prevalence. The weak November euro area inflation data contributed to the US and Germany government bonds growth reducing the investments attractiveness in European assets putting pressure on the single European currency. The trades were determined by the services ISM (55,3 against the forecasted median 56,0) and the US Energy Department releases (-5,085М against the forecasted median 0,439М).

The first support lies at 1.0730 and then at 1.0630. The first resistance stands at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0730 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0630 will be opened.




Pound

General overview

The published positive construction sector PMI was unable to provide strong support for the pound. That is a signal of the strong sellers presence. The Markit published the third report - this time we got the service sector data. This indicator has been showing the moderate growth for the last two months, however, if we want to see a strong demand for the pound the indicator final value should be higher than 56.6 n. The release came in at the level of 55,5 that put pressure on the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4560 soon. The next target is the level of 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The lack of "risk appetite" among investors continues to contribute to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. The high-yield cross-rates have been showing weakness from the beginning of the trading week. We believe traders are not interesting in new carry trade orders.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.20. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the flat trades between the levels of 118.40 and 119.20.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Jan 07, 2016 2:18 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

There was a quite volatile trading day yesterday. The dollar showed mixed dynamics against its major rivals. Traders still do not prefer to risk as they do have concerns to worry about. They are global economy slowdown, low oil price and the Chinese economy.

Soft Fed meeting minutes weakened the US currency. The regulator expressed his concerns about the inflation, the strong dollar which triggered the greenback sales. The US published the initial jobless clams (277 000 against the forecasted 275 000).

The euro got some support after the risky assets sales. However, the US strong labor market data gave new strength to the dollar. According to ADP, the December private sector employment level increased by 257 thousand. These figures are much higher than the forecast and the previous value of 192 thousand. However after the USA new statistics the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

A series of weak economic data postpones the Bank of England rate hike which exacerbates the divergence rate of the BoE and the Fed. That is another long-term negative factor for the Sterling. The trades closed with the pair GBP/USD decrease.

The USD/JPY accelerated its decline after the Fed meeting minutes’ publication. The price moved further down. The risk factor always plays into the Japanese yen hands.



Technical analysis


Euro

General overview

Traders received the Germany retail sales and factory orders data. The euro zone is to publish the labor market (the unemployment rate is 10,5% against the forecasted 10,7%), the consumer confidence (at the forecasted median -0,6), the retail sales (-0,3% against the forecasted median 0,2%), the economic sentiment (-2,0 against the forecasted median -3,0) reports.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations


The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0925. After breaking 1.0925 the buyers may go to 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

The strong dollar does not leave the choice to the pound which has to develop the downward momentum. The EUR/GBP dynamics played the negative role for the Cable having grown within the day. The UK statistics continues to disappoint traders. The UK surfaced the house prices minor report that came in better then forecasted median 9,5%(y/y) and 1,7%(m/m).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4630 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4700.



Yen

General overview

We believe that the raw materials low prices as well as the Chinese economy state shall keep the interest to the yen. Today the market will pay its attention to the USA Non-Farms.

The first support resides at 117.80, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 118.40, the next one is at 119.20.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the flat trades at the level of 117.80.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss franc rose against the dollar on the wave of the total US currency sales after the FOMC protocols publication. Meanwhile, the Fed's representative Fisher predicts that the rate will be increased by 4 times in 2016. He noted that the Fed currently has no information how many times the rate would be changed in 2016. However, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank raised its GDP growth forecast in Q4 on Wednesday.

The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

The indicator shows a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and is above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:41 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Chinese market collapse for more than 7%, the Chinese stock exchanges trading suspension, cheap oil – all these factors supported the euro and the yen. The dollar experienced difficulties with a growth amid the global markets negative sentiment, the Fed soft minutes as well as the weak labor market data. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came higher than expected 200 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 295 thousand.

The struggle between the major competitors, the euro and the dollar, is continued. We believe that the euro current growth looks more like a temporary correction while the dollar remains on a horse. The pair received almost no support from the macroeconomic data which had the mixed background. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar increased.

The pound was the main outsider among the main currencies. The Cable has recently been quite sensitive to the oil prices drop which has fallen to 11-year lows. The Sterling slightly corrected after the weak USA data, in general, the pair remains under strong pressure. The UK published the trade balance: -10,64B against the forecasted -10,50B. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

At the same time Japan did not publish important reports. The dollar dynamics is the main driver for the yen. The pair USD/JPY sharply fell by the end of the trading day.





Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The consumer sentiment improvement in most sectors of the regional economy has not been transformed into the consumer spending increase yet that is seen from the retail sales reports. The Germany published import (1,6% against the forecasted 1,0%), export (0,4% against the forecasted 0,7%), payment balance (19,7B against the forecasted 20,0B) and industrial production reports (-0,3% against the forecasted 0,5%).

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.0925 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1050 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

Besides to the divergence between the Bank of England and the Fed monetary policies the Sterling is under pressure amid some fears that the UK may exit the EU. The referendum is supposed to take place in the middle of 2016. While traders are speculating about the possible referendum consequences the pound remains in a state of free fall. In addition, the oil price decrease keeps pressuring the Cable.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4530.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4480 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4400 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The NFP report was last Friday main event. After a growth for 2012 thousand in November, the December NFP figure was expected to reach 200 thousand. However the relese came in at the level 292 thousand. The labor market state is one of the key benchmarks for the Fed in determining the monetary policy course.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 117.00 and 116.20 soon.




Franc

General overview

The dollar fell against the franc. Earlier the pair dollar/franc strengthened amid growing interest in dollar buying and the European shares recovery. The Chinese stock markets stabilized, European markets are recovering that reduces the demand for the safe assets, including the franc. The Switzerland unemployment rate rose to 3,7% from 3,4%, exceeding the forecast of 3,6%. The consumer prices fell in December by 1,3% y/y, after falling 1,4%.

The first support resides at 0.9850, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

The price is in the Cloud and is above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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