"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Page 4 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Jul 06, 2014 4:32 pm

First topic message reminder :



Dear all forum users!

As you already know, TradeFort company obtained an international license IFSC/60/256/TS/14.

Due to that fact, TradeFort has successfully re-branded and since 29th of June works under a Fort Financial Services brand. We have tried to maximally improve our fundamental and technical analysis of financial markets.

We hope, that you will appreciate the analysis we provide. We are looking forward to hear your comments and suggestions.

Thank you for working with TradeFort and welcome to the international brokerage Fort Financial Services!

Fort Financial Services - Citadel of Trading


avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down


Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Mar 09, 2015 5:11 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

According to the February US labor market report the US economy has created 295 thousand of new jobs in February which significantly exceeded market expectations. Moreover, the overall unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to the level of 5.5%. The positive releases encouraged traders to long with dollar.

The greenback has lost some positions. Earlier the dollar strengthened along the whole market – at the end of the day the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trade at the mark of 97.72 that has been the highest level since October 2003. The US Treasury bond yields increased up from the level of 0.64% to 0.72% on Friday - the bond market participants are guided by the Fed earlier monetary policy tightening. Fisher, one of the prominent Fed "hawks", talked about the interest rates increase at the June monetary regulator meeting last week.

The euro decline was intensified after the ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference where he specifically said that that QE may be kept and after the September 2016. The pair corrected at the yesyerday’s trades.

The pair GBP/USD decrease was intensified amid the dollar growth after the US labor market publication. Earlier the Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged. The rates remained at the level of 0.5% while the repurchase assets volume was around £ 375 billion as it was expected. Nevertheless the pound strengthened on Monday’s trades.

The dollar rose against the yen amid the US labor market positive report. Another factor that put pressure on the yen was the fact that China had established the economic outlook in 2015 at the level of 7% which was lower than the last year forecast of 7.5%. The Prime Minister Li Keqiang stated about it at the Parliament opening session.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

After the labor market release, according to which the unemployment rate fell down to 5.5%, the expectations regarding to the Federal Reserve monetary policy only increased The euro position looks unconvincing - the US and Germany 10-year bond yields increased by 17 basis points to the level of 185.8.

The US labor market positive fundamental data just strengthened the bearish EUR/USD trend. The pair slightly corrected from the last week minimums.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925 the next one is at 1.1040.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.0925. If the price falls it will get to 1.0790 and 1.0670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the bond market dynamics. Before the US Federal Reserve meeting which is scheduled for March 17-18, the Forex market will live with rumors about the imminent monetary policy tightening. We believe that this factor shall support the US dollar.

Sellers have broken through the two quite strong support levels: 1.5200 and 1.5100. The levels breakthrough was on the increased volume. Then the pair turned upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5200, 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

According to the revised data, the Japan GDP growth was 1.5% on the annual basis that is lower than the previously reported GDP growth preliminary data that was 2.2%. The economists’ forecasted 2.2% as well. The US and Japan 10-year bond yields increased by 13 basis points which is a strong bullish factor for the US dollar.

The US dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese yen, breaking through the strong resistance level of 120.30 amid the increased trading volume.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 1.3665 the buyers may go to 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:27 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The first part of the week traders fixed the US dollar long positions profits - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 97.60. The pair EUR/USD could strengthen its position to the level of 1.0906 after significant sales, but then bears returned to the market. The German 10-year bond yields declined to the US and the UK analogues which determined the single European currency destiny.

On the contrary, at the beginning of the week the pair GBP / USD showed a growth. The pair’s sales encouraged bulls to long. The positive trend has been for two days then the pair returned to sales. The pair was trading different directed.

The negative trade balance data and the Japan GDP for the fourth quarter allowed traders to break through the resistance level of 121.60. Due to the net imports strong growth in January, we conclude that the Japan economy has been weakening, despite the strong yen devaluation which had to strengthen export. Nevertheless the pair could not fixate above the level of 121.60 and it fell below it.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We will pay attention to the bond market dynamics, namely to the 10- year government bond yields. The current US Treasuries and German bonds yields are at the level of 188 basis points which has been the highest level for the last 25 years which is a strong negative factor for the euro.

The short-term price rebound was followed by the further price decline. The potential bearish trend is still preserved despite the reduced volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790 the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0670, 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The dollar growth will negatively affect the "black gold" on the market. In this regard, the oil quotations reduction will further intensify pressure on the pound which is very sensitive to changes within the Brent varieties cost.

The British pound returned above the resistance level of 1.5100 after it broke through it downwards. The price rebound was at the reduced volume and reached the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.5140. but the pair could not fixate above the level of 1.5100 and is trading under it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go downward to the level of 1.4920.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The fundamental background indicates the upward trend continuation. First, the Japan trade balance negative release for January shows the overall economy and the particular industrial production weakness. The second, the foreign exchange market is now living with rumors about the Fed monetary policy tightening and this factor strongly supports the dollar.

The resistance testing of 121.60 was followed by the very low volume. The pair returned under this level.

The strong divergence on the volumes signals towards the just formed reversal. However, the medium-term bullish trend is still relevant from the technical point of view.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. As long as the price is trading above the level of 120.40 buyers remain strong. The bulls’ target is the level 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Mar 12, 2015 1:23 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued its winning streak in the Forex market – the US dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.53. Yesterday the Germany 10-year bond yields renewed the historic low that caused the pair EUR/USD new sales wave. Now the single European currency is the most unloved investors’ asset. At the end of the day the pair euro/dollar decreased, having ended the trades at the mark of 1.0534.

The pair GBP/USD has followed its “older brother” and also finished the trading day in the negative area. The US dollar growth encouraged bears to short with Brent which contributed to the UK 10-year bond yields decrease. As a result, the trades within the pair GBP/USD ended with the price decline.

After the 122nd figure testing the traders started profit taking in the morning with the pair USD/JPY. Early in the morning Japan published the February machinery and equipment orders release which showed a growth to the level of 28.9% on the annual basis that allows us to count on the industrial production growth in March. As a result, the trading day within the pair USD/JPY was finished with the price slight increase.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro is declining lower and lower and at the current time there are no factors that can change the negative trend. The oil quotations decrease sent the Germany10-year bond yields to the fresh historic low that intensifies the Old World deflationary expectations.

There is a significant difference in the ECB and the Fed monetary policy which makes dollar a winner within the pair.

The price reduction takes place at the increased level that signals towards the increased interest in sales.

The price is finding the support at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0550 the next one is at 1.0670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0420 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect soon the January UK industrial production release. The PMI manufacturing sector moderate growth indicates the data within the forecasted medians that will not provide a significant support to the British pound.

Once again the US and the UK 10-year bond yields have expanded; the Brent crude oil decreased amid the US dollar revaluation that is a bearish factor for the British pound.

The trade continues below the resistance level of 1.5015 and towards the downward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 1.4800.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The sales wave swept across the US stock market which is a negative factor for the pair dollar / yen. The US and Japan 10-year bond yields reduction can also encourage bears to short.

The mark of 121.60 - 121.80 is the maximum in 2014. No wonder why there is a corrective price rebound downwards from this level now. It is worth noting that the price rebound was on the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Mar 12, 2015 4:05 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar stopped its aggressive way against the main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.76. The pair EUR/USD set a fresh 12-year low and then corrected. Investors continue to get rid of the Euro amid the increasing expectations that the Fed will tighten its monetary policy that led to the USA and Germany bond yields significant expansion. Nevertheless the pair euro/dollar slightly increase at the end of the day.

The UK industrial production fell by 0.1% in January which cheered bears to short. After breaking through the support level of 1.5033, the pressure on the pound was intensified and quotations have fallen down to the level of 1.4895 after where the pair rebounded. As a result, the trading day within the pair GBP/USD finished with the prices decline.

After the technical correction the USD/JPY bulls returned to the market and opened long positions at the attractive levels. This day there was not published Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics – traders bought the US dollar as it is now a leader in the Forex market. As a result, the trading day within the pair dollar/yen finished with the quotations growth.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro is heavily undervalued now. On the other hand, the United States released the retail sales report. We count on the retail sector high demand amid the labor market positive data. In the light of this we may expect the bearish trend continuation. The US and German 10-year bond yields are testing the multi-year highs.

Unilaterally, the US dollar weakened against the euro. The downtrend is followed with a slight correction amid the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0670 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the UK January trade balance release and the Bank of England governor’s speech. The pound strong quotations growth against the euro makes the British goods less competitive in the Old World.

On the contrary, the United States can please traders with the retail sales positive data.

The price declined amid the increased volume which led to the strong support level of 1.4920 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5015. The approach to the level of 1.5015 may lead to a price rebound down.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US positive macroeconomic statistics will encourage bulls to long. Investors have again "risk appetite" that is a negative factor for the Japanese yen.

The upward trend near the resistance level of 121.60 was stopped. The formed consolidation below the level will lead to the downward correction in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar continued to strengthen against the Swiss franc and rose above the parity value, rising close the level of1.0160.

However, the upward impulse was not strong enough and it could not move above the rate.
Additional pressure on the franc received amid the rumors that the Swiss National Bank considered the key interest rate decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9950, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0160.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Mar 15, 2015 5:03 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar strengthened against its major competitors after a slight decrease - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.30. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US weak macroeconomic statistics. The retail sales release disappointed traders with its weak data which the profit taking. However the pair euro/dollar has again decreased at the end of the day.

The oil prices, the UK and the US bond yields decrease provoked the British pound bearish rally. The EUR/GBP "shorts" closing also added negativity to the bulls within the "cable". At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD decreased.

The pair USD/JPY has shown a side tendency. The US retail sales negative release lowered the quotations to the mark of 120.65 where bulls started to long based on the uptrend continuation. As a result, the trading day ended with the quotations growth.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The dollar index basket (USDX) reached the level of 100.06, indicating the steady bullish trend. However, the US retail sales weak release can cool the bears’ enthusiasm. The dollar revaluation with the low consumer demand threatens the inflation growth. In this regard, we expect the FOMC conservative rhetoric on March 18 that can trigger the mass shorts fixation with the euro/dollar.

The downtrend might be stopped at the level of 1.0500 in the short term. There was formed the upward correction to the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.0670 from this level. Then the pair rebounded downwards from the level of 1.0670 and broke through the level of 1.0550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0420, the next one is at 1.0280. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0550 the next one is at 1.0670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.0670 for a correction growth. If the price fixates below the support 1.0420, it may continue the downward trend in the short term.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect the downward trend development. The US moderately positive macroeconomic statistics will support small demand for the US dollar. The UK 10-year bond yields are reducing in relation to its main German and the US competitors which is a bearish factor for the "cable".

The strong resistance level of 1.4800 which has recently acted in a supporting role was broken downwards amid the strong volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4800, 1.4920.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US stock market responded positively to the poor statistics as the retail sales decrease will restrain inflation and thus the Fed will not rush to tighten the monetary policy. The best example of this situation is the US Treasury bonds market - after publication the government 2-years securities fell sharply downwards which reflect expectations, concerning the Fed rate.

The whole week the trade has been held towards the sideway channel, the key level is the mark of 121.20.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 121.60 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair is under pressure from the deteriorated market’s attitude towards the dollar and demand for the Swiss currency within the growing pair franc/yen. The pair potential reduction is constrained by the Switzerland negative interest rates, the intervention threat by the Swiss National Bank with the franc sales and the correction position.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9950, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0290.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Mar 16, 2015 5:36 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar stopped its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 100.20, setting earlier the fresh 11-year high. The pair EUR/USD was under pressure due to the energy prices decrease. The Brent oil quotations fell by 4.4%. Against this negative background, the pair euro/dollar decreased. Nevertheless the pair recovered some losses at the end of the day.

The UK 10-year bond yields decrease to its US and Germany increased pressure on the GBP/USD. The oil market sales and the British pound strong growth against the euro make the Mark Carney’s statements about the UK monetary policy easing very realistic. However after a decrease the pair pound/dollar grew.

On the first trading day the US dollar managed to strengthen against its Japanese competitor – the pair USD/JPY showed a consolidation at the end of the day. This symbolic increase is explained by the US stock market weakness after the US producer price index negative macroeconomic statistics and the consumer sentiment releases from the University of Michigan.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US ISM manufacturing index has been showing decline for four consecutive months, indicating the industrial production slowdown. Mark that the ISM manufacturing sector employment component fell to its lowest level in February since April 2014.

The euro has been actively updating the price lows the third week in a row. The price decrease was followed with the increased volumes. The pair slightly grew and broke through the resistance level of 1.0550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued amid the Chief of the ECB M. Draghi’s speach. The pair may go to 1.0420 and 1.0280 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The cross-rate EUR/GBP short positions closing will put little pressure on the British pound. However, the US industrial production moderately negative release for February will deter bears from active sales. The UK bond yields declined in relation to the US and Germany analogues, indicating the low demand for the British pound.

The downward trend was stopped at the mark of 1.4730. Taking into consideration the first trading day weak volatility, the correction was formed. The resistance level of 1.4800 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.4800 for a steady decrease. The way to the marks of 1.4650, 1.4500 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Risk appetite returned to investors which will support the demand for the pair. However, today we should not count on the strong price growth – the US moderately negative macroeconomic statistics will act as a deterrent for the bulls. Industrial production is a cyclical indicator and its reduction indicates the economic growth slowdown.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 122.40. If the price falls it will get to 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Mar 17, 2015 4:41 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.55. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The industrial production release went worse than the forecasted medians that cheered bulls to long. In the light of this, the pair euro/dollar increased at the end of the day.

During the day the GBP/USD was in demand as well. The US industrial production weak macroeconomic statistics once again showed that the Fed does not need to rush the interest rates increase. However, at the end of day the pair GBP/USD quotations decreased.

Yesterday there was the lateral trend within the pair USD/JPY. On the one hand, the US industrial production weak release is a negative factor for the bulls. On the other hand, the more negative releases now come from overseas the more likely that the Fed will again hold conservative views and this factor will support the demand for the stock markets.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the German ZEW index data publication. In March the ZEW current conditions index changed to 55.1 from 45.5 while the ZEW expectations index increased to 54.8 from 53.0. In addition the euro area data showed that the CPI came out with the + 0.6% m/m -0.3% y/y in February.

There was a corrective price rebound upwards from the support level of 1.0455 with the following level of 1.0550 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.0670. If the price falls it will get to 1.0420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK 10-year bond yields have been declining for four consecutive trading days regarding to their US and Germany counterparts that is a negative factor for the "cable" and will put pressure on the British pound. The low oil prices make the UK key rate decline a real event and against this background we mark the bearish sentiment predominance.

The corrective growth broke through the resistance level of 1.4800. The pair was not able to fixate above this level and decreased below it. The upward correction volumes were in the reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.4800 may lead to a price consolidation followed by a rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.4650.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan governor, Kuroda said that the probability of inflation increase to 2% in 2015 is very high. The salaries increase is important for the inflation growth to 2%. Kuroda noted that the oil prices decline was unexpected, the oil prices decrease influences the inflation in Japan that will be weakened by autumn.

More than a week the price has been consolidating below the resistance level of 121.60. This fact gives a good signal for the further bullish trend confirmation.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Mar 18, 2015 9:48 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The main market attention was directed to the Fed meeting release and to the Ms. Yellen speech. Yellen did not say anything concrete about the rates. Yellen’s speech did not support the dollar and it fell temporally. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the Germany business climate moderately positive release from the ZEW institute. The indicator has been showing growth for 5 consecutive months and went out to the highest level since February 2014. The release points out to the investors’ positive expectations about the Eurozone locomotive prospects. At the end of the day the pair euro/dollar increased.

Yesterday the pair GBP/USD was under pressure as well. The EUR/GBP short positions closing has increased after the ZEW institute publication which caused the pound decrease. But then bears took profit that caused the technical rebound in the market. At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD grew.

The pair USD/JPY has been in a narrow flat for three trading days. At the end of the day the US weak macroeconomic statistics supported bears.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The key week day has come for the entire Forex market. Late at night the Fed announced its two-day meeting monetary policy results. The inflation, retail sales and industrial production macroeconomic releases clearly point out to the lack of appropriate monetary tightening.

The level of 1.0550 breakthrough was followed by the price increase to the resistance level of 1.0670. The level testing has led to the consolidation formation. Then the break upwards though this level happened.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790 the next one is at 1.0925.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0790. After breaking 1.0790 the buyers may go to 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England monetary policy last meeting minutes did not support the British pound. In early March the unemployment reduction with the average earnings growth have intensified the UK inflation expectations. From the American monetary regulator, on the contrary, we expected "pigeon" rhetoric in relation to the monetary policy tightening.

The support level of 1.4650 has twice stopped the sellers. The first level testing was followed by a slight correction upwards; the second one has led to the short-term consolidation and a sharp increase.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4880.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward moveent and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4920 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.5015, 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The trading has been held for seven days amid the weak volatile consolidation in anticipation of the strong news – the Fed economic forecasts, the Federal Open Market Committee FOMC statement, the Fed Chairman Yellen speech which came out yesterday. Yellen did not say anything concrete about the rates changes. Yellen’s vague statements did not support the dollar at all.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 120.40, 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Mar 19, 2015 5:24 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The trading week central event was news when the FED announced its two-day meeting monetary policy results. The weak macroeconomic statistics does not leave the FED any choice but not to rush with the interest rate growth.

The Fed lowered its forecast to the current year average rate: 0.625% instead of 1.125% as it was expected in December 2014. The GDP and inflation forecasts for the next three years also have been decreased. The FOMC governor Janet Yellen pointed out to the strong dollar as the main reason for the weak exports. Against this background, we have seen massive longs closure within the US dollar and the main dollar competitors’ strong growth. However the dollar recovered at the yesterday’s trades.

The Eurozone has not published any important reports. Of course the US Federal Reserve accompanying statement will contribute to the dynamics. But now we should not count on the euro substantial growth because of the fact that the difference in the regulators’ sentiments is too high. The trades on the EUR/USD closed with a decrease.

The UK has not published any important report. It should also be noted that the salary average level data showed a decline, suggesting the inflation pressure further decrease, although, the pound has showed its growth. The growth was short-term and the pair pound/dollar decreased again.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Fed has sent the dollar into the knockout. The shorts global closure at forex and commodity markets indicates the US dollar corrective movement development. The United States has published the last year payments balance report for the 4th quarter. During this period the US dollar has risen by 5% in relation to its main competitors (USDX) which has a negative impact on the trade balance. Nevertheless, the dollar recovered its losses.

Buyers were able to revise the price to 1.0925. The test turned out to be short-term and was followed by the active decrease. The support levels of 1.0790 and 1.0670 were broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The 4th quarter payments balance weak release will increase pressure on the dollar. Traders significantly overestimated the UK labor market moderately negative release. The unemployment remained at the same level as the average earnings have declined, but the employment growth by the ILO methodology indicates the positive trend continuation the next months.

The pair pound/dollar has tested the strong resistance level of 1.5100 for its strength. The level testing was at the increased volume, but without breakthrough. The pair rebounded downwards and broke through the support levels of 1.5015, 1.4920, 1.4800.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the falling will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4650.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US stock market responded positively to the FOMC meeting results. The Fed does not rush to tighten monetary policy and bulls once again rushed to the stock market. Institutional investors will continue to be funded with the cheap yen which will put pressure on the Japanese currency. The US payments balance negative release will freeze the bulls’ enthusiasm for a time. However, the pair grew again.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 1.3665 the buyers may go to 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss National Bank monetary policy decision can affect the pair USD/CHF dynamics. It is expected that the central bank will maintain the same position. The pair is under the market negative attitude pressure, demand for the Swiss franc within the growing pair franc/yen and the Switzerland ZEW economic sentiment indicator growth to -37.9 in March from -73.0 in February.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Fri Mar 20, 2015 7:49 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

We saw the volatility hike within the major pairs last week. After the US dollar strong weakening and the Fed meeting results announcement- the dollar was able to compensate some of the lost. Investors again rushed to long with the US dollar at the attractive levels. Only the 4th quarter US last year payment balance release is worth noting - the deficit increased by 113.5 billion dollars which confirms the dollar negative revaluation effect for the economy. The current year first quarter also does not promise anything good to the US and against this background, the remaining spring months the US dollar will be extremely difficult to rise up.

The euro market the was determined after the fact that the ECB launched the quantitative easing program. The liquidity injections will put pressure on the European currency for a long time.

Great Britain stands almost on the same level with the United States in regard with the regulators’ attitude towards the monetary policy course. Although Carney said that there was no reason to rush with the monetary policy tightening, the situation could change at any time and the Bank of England may start the interest rate increase.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

By the end of 2014 the US payments balance had increased by 412.93 billion dollars. The UK and Germany 10-year negative bond yields continued their decline which can spur demand for the EUR/GBP cross-rate and this face is positive for the euro.

The US dollar returned back its position on the increased volume. The price decreased to the support level of 1.0670. The pair rebounded from this level and rose above the resistance level of 1.0790.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925 the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.0670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK 10-year bond yields are rapidly falling relative to their United States and Germany counterparts which put pressure on the "cable". However, if the Brent crude oil quotes begin an upward movement, the pound will also be able to compensate some lost ground.

The price decline was on the increased volume and it decreased to the support near 1.4800. The price has broken the support level of 1.4800 for five times, but for short time. This time the pair rebounded upwards again and broke through the resistance level of 1.4800 and 1.4920.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.4800. After breaking 1.4800 the sellers may go to 1.4650.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of the US and Japan important macroeconomic statistics traders may focus their attention to the bond market dynamics. The FOMC "dovish" rhetoric opens the way for the US stock market to the new highs that will strengthen demand for the risky assets and therefore the "safe- haven" yen will be unattractive for traders.

Sellers tried to break through the strong support level of 120.40. But the pair could not fixate below and rebounded upwards. The growth was short term and the pair fell again and broke through the support level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The market’s negative attitude towards the franc is caused by the Swiss National Bank decision, made up on the last week, to leave interest rates at the level of 0.75%, its inflation forecast for 2015 and 2016 and the bank statement about its readiness to prevent the franc growth. The pair is also supported by the market improving attitude towards the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Mar 23, 2015 4:42 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 98. There was not any important macroeconomic statistics. On Friday traders continued to take profits with longs. Last week the Federal Reserve made it clear to investors that a strong dollar is an obstacle to the sustainable economic growth. In the light of this traders got rid of the US dollar and there was a steady demand for the major currencies. The pair EUR/USD has grown, the pair GBP/USD consolidated, and the pair USD/JPY decreased at the end of the day.

The current week economic calendar must be in favor of the US dollar. According to the IMM CFTC the market is still holding excessively long dollar positions. Disappointment in the business activity or inflation can bring to the next phase the dollar longs reduction in the short term. However, the dollar should keep the bullish trend in the medium-term, taking into consideration the monetary policy difference between the US and the major competing countries.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

This week we expect the Germany economic indicators activity and the US inflation publication. Traders do not rush with the positions opening amid the coming news. At the end of the last week, the euro showed a steady growth which lays a good foundation for the positive trend continuation.

Buyers have come to the resistance level of 1.0925 for the second time on the increased volume and broke it upwards. The formed consolidation in this level area can cause a slight rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the resistance at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target is 1.0790. The support level of 1.0790 testing will be followed by the euro growth.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK manufacturing sector shows a growth that allows us to count on the British Industry Confederation positive release. On the contrary, the United States will not please traders with the strong macroeconomic data. It is observed the Germany and the UK 10-year bond yields reduction on the bond market which will act as a deterrent for the bulls.

The pair is trading around the level of 1.4920.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5015 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Investors still have "risk appetite" which will put pressure on the Japanese yen as the funding currency. American benchmarks are set to test the historic highs which is a bullish factor for the pair. The current levels are attractive for investors who count on the uptrend continuation.

The pair broke through the channel lower bound of 120.40-122.00 and continues its corrective decline.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Mar 24, 2015 5:01 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has opened the trading week on the minor noteб but showed a different directed trades on the yesterday’s trading - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.17. The pair EUR/USD was again the growth leader still the dollar managed to regain some ground yesterday. The Germany and the US bond yields reduction increased the euro bullish sentiment. We got the CPI from the United States. The PPI and the retail sales negative releases did not allow us to count on the strong data release.

During the day the GBP/USD on the contrary remained under pressure. The British Industry Confederation has reported the production orders reduction due to the "cable" revaluation. At the moment quotations reached the mark of 1.4837, but then there was a rebound in the market. The UK and the US 10-year negative bond yield spread are declining which is a positive factor for the British pound.

In the dispute between bulls and bears the winner was not revealed during the day. The US secondary market housing sales negative macroeconomic statistics encouraged bears to short. However, the US stock market growth held back the yen from the strong growth.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the Germany PMI manufacturing sector release. The single European currency devaluation with the geopolitical tensions decrease is positive factors for the manufacturing sector. We expect the data output at the level or slightly better than the forecasted medians that will support the pair.

The euro strengthened against the US dollar. Its active growth was followed by the resistance level of 1.0925 breakthrough. The pair could not fixate above this level and fell below it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.0790 may lead to a price rebound upwards.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

During the day traders may win back the UK and the US inflation releases.

Last week the Bank of England signaled to traders that the inflation increase is directly proportional to the wages rapid growth. Taking into account the fact that the UK average salary decreased in January it is now extremely difficult to expect the inflation surge.

Buyers do not hurry to continue the upward trend after the level of 1.4920 breakthrough. The price rebounded downwards and the trade stopped under the resistance level of 1.4920.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4800, 1.4650.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US negative macroeconomic statistics that we receive more recently deprives the dollar support. The inflation release for February also will not please traders with the strong data. On the other hand, demand for the risky assets is still preserved which is a negative factor for the low-yielding Japanese yen.

The pair dollar/yen consolidated near the psychological level of 120.00. Then the support level of 119.20 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 120.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 121.60.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:32 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar could compensate some of the lost positions, but then it fell again - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.15. The pair EUR/USD tested the psychological level of 1.1000 amid the Germany manufacturing PMI positive release. The indicator exceeded the annual average which indicates the manufacturing sector positive trend development. Traders fixed profits with the long positions as a result there was a technical rebound. The downward rebound was short-term and the pair increased again.

The GBP/USD was under pressure trying its very best to reach the level of 1.5015. The UK inflation slowed down to the level of 0% on the annualized basis in February which encouraged bears to short.

The pair USD/JPY has been trading in the flat. The UK inflation report coincided with the traders’ expectations and against this background traders closed short positions which allowed the US dollar to demonstrate its growth to the level of 119.97 at the moment. However, the US stock market weakness did not allow bulls to finish the trading day on the positive note.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Our attention will be drawn to the IFO institute publication. The ZEW and PMI indicators show the optimistic sentiment predominance in the German business community. We received positive data. The bond market trend also confirms the upward movement development. The Germany and the US 10-year negative bond yields are declining which is a positive factor for the euro.

There was the level of 1.0925 testing. The pair did not fixate under this level and rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect the US durable goods orders publication. American consumers are now set to save more than spend and in this regard it is difficult to count on the strong data. We still cannot count on the strong quotations growth. The pair EUR/GBP cross-rate quotations growth amid the UK and Germany negative bond yields reduction had a negative impact on the pound.

The pair rebound from the resistance level of 1.4920 led to the consolidation formation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.4800 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.4650 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US macroeconomic statistics will not be able to please traders with strong data which is a negative factor for the dollar. The day before there has been the lack of investors' risk appetite which traditionally causes demand for the Japanese yen as traders close their positions within the carry trade.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 119.20 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 120.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:34 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar recovered after it was again under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 96.97. During the day the pair EUR/USD once tested the level of 1.1050 after the US durable goods orders weak data publication. However, bulls were unable to consolidate near this level and as a result the day ended with the quotations fall.

The British Bankers' Association mortgage lending positive report along side with the US negative statistics let the pair GBP/USD close the trading day in the "red zone" – the British pound has fallen.

The pair USD/JPY was dominated by the bullish sentiment. The durable goods orders decline in the United States has increased pressure on the US stock market which has caused the demand for the Japanese yen. By the end of the day the pair dollar/yen has grown.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Investors will focus their attention on the bond market dynamics. The 10-year Germany/USA and Germany/UK negative bond yields have reduced which is a positive factor for the euro. It is also necessary to note the "black gold" price increase which is also a positive factor for the single European currency.

After the price consolidation below 1.1050 and this level test the pair rebounded downwards and broke through the support level of 1.0790.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0790, 1.0670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National Statistics Office has published the February UK retail sales release. Leading indicators pointed out to the moderately positive data output and the release came out better then the forecasted medians. The 10-year UK bond yields are declining relative to their US and Germany analogues which is a bearish factor for the British pound.

The consolidation was followed by the pound growth. Then the pair decreased. Trades are held below the downward trend line of 1.4920.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.4800. After breaking 1.4800 the sellers may go to 1.4650.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar rose at the end of the trades. We shall pay our attention to the stock market dynamics. The risky assets demand continues to decline, contributing to the bearish trend development. In the light of this, the Japanese yen will feel like "fish in water."

There was the strong support level of 119.20 breakthrough. The bears strengthened their positions amid this breakthrough. Nevertheless, the pair increased above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

There has been published the Switzerland February consumer activity indicator by UBS - it showed 1.19 against 1.11 in January. The Swiss franc changed a little bit against the dollar after the release output. We should note that the franc closed the trades with its decrease relative to the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sat Mar 28, 2015 4:05 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was able to compensate some of the lost positions - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.65. The pair EUR/USD showed an increase to the level of 1.1052 amid the strong demand for crude oil, but then bulls took profits that caused quotations decrease near 1.0830. At the end of the day the pair euro / dollar has decreased.

The UK retail sales positive release encouraged bulls to long. At the moment quotations reached the mark of 1.4993, but bulls failed to consolidate in this area as a result we had a technical rebound. However, the trading day within the pair GBP/USD ended with the quotations increase.

The pair USD/JPY was trading in a side corridor. Sales in the global stock markets intensified investors’ escape into the safe assets amid the lack of Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics. By the end of the day the pair dollar/yen has decreased.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro is consolidating near the strong level of 1.0925 which indicates the pressure from the bears’ part. We should note that the long-term trend is a downward one. The US GDP third (final) assessment was not able to please traders. The dollar revaluation has a significant negative impact on the US economy.

The local maximum update of 1.1050 led to the price reversal downwards. The price has consolidated under the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK retail sales positive report shows the private consumption growth which is a positive factor for the economy. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney once again stated in his speech at the Bundesbank conference that the next step from the Bank of England part would be the interest rates increase. Mark Carney also said that the life standard recovery in the US is stronger than in the UK.

The upward correction, formed from the support level of 1.4650 is gradually turning to a consolidation. The key support is the mark of 1.4800.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break below 1.4800 for a steady decrease.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan consumer price inflation has been slowing for eight month in a row; it raises expectations that the Bank of Japan will take additional monetary policy easing measures to achieve the inflation target. The consumer price index rose in February compared to the last year level of 2.0% which is below the forecasted medians of 2.1% and is lower the growth by 2.2% in January.

The price is finding the support at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 118.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc resumed its increase against the dollar. Earlier the franc fell after the Swiss central bank representative Silvan Tsurbryugg said that the SNB was ready to intervene "at any time", the Swiss franc was greatly overvalued. And Silvan Tsurbryugg does not expect "the long term negative inflation", he is confident that the economy would cope with the strong franc effect.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:50 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

31.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Federal Reserve board chairman Janet Yellen declared last week that the interest rate increase "can be guaranteed” in case of the economic recovery this year.

The pair EUR/USD has enjoyed a moderate demand amid the US weak macroeconomic statistics, then the interest for the dollar buying increased. Investors expected the GDP revision for the 4th quarter in a positive way by 0.2%, but the indicator remained at the same level. By the end of the day the pair has fallen.

The bearish sentiment also prevailed with the pair GBP/USD during the day. Traders built up short positions amid the US and the UK bond yields decline.

There was a flat within the pair USD/JPY. The Japan negative inflation report has allowed the pair dollar/yen to strengthen to the level of 119.50, but the US weak macroeconomic statistics returned the quotes back. Nevertheless, as a result, the trading day within the pair USD/JPY finished with a sharp growth.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We expect the downward trend development. The first March German important inflation report will be published this week. It will be the first CPI assessment which traditionally causes high traders’ reaction.

The retail sales and durable goods negative data with the Michigan Institute consumer confidence indicator decrease point out to the Core PCE weak data output. In this regard, the US dollar will be under pressure as this indicator reflects the state of demand in the country.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.0790 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.0670 will be opened after this breakthrough. After fixing below the level of 1.0670, the level 1.0550 will become the next target.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK will not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases and in this regard, the traders’ attention will be drawn to the statistics from overseas. Leading indicators point out to the personal consumption expenditure weak data which is a negative factor for the US dollar. The low domestic demand indicates the weak GDP and therefore the dollar loses drivers for the quotations growth.

The bond market also confirms the bullish trend for the British pound - the UK 10-year bond yields are growing in relation to the United States and Germany ones which is a positive factor for the pound.

The pound has been consolidating above the support level of 1.4800 the whole previous week. The short-term tests were on reduced volume and were followed by the small rebounds upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4800 line break that will open the way towards 1.4650.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan shall publish the industrial production report. The machinery and equipment orders decline in January indicates the Japan production capacity contraction.

The production sector PMI indicator in February was at the level of 51.6%, indicating the purchasing managers’ low optimism in this sector. The Japan goods exports from Japan have fallen to its lowest level for five months at the end of February which clearly confirms the negative trend.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is under the Cloud and it is in the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 120.40. After breaking 120.40 the buyers may go to 121.60 and 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Mar 31, 2015 9:26 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar closed the yesterday's trading session with the quotations growth against the euro. The dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.30. During the day the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the energy prices decline. The Germany and Spain preliminary inflation releases pleased traders with the strong data, but the oil prices decrease reduced to naught all the bulls’ efforts.

The pair GBP/USD has copied fully its older brother dynamics, but the pound grew at the end of the day. The UK mortgage lending release came out worse than traders had expected and this factor with the oil prices decline encouraged bears to short. The bears recovered some positions at the end of the trades.

The Japan industrial production negative release with the world's leading markets growth encouraged the bulls to long with the pair USD/JPY which has increased. However the dollar fell but the pair quotations have increased by the end of the day after a slight decrease.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Germany will publish the retail sales release. The retail sales fell by 0.5% m / m in February compared with January. The consumer confidence indicator growth with the car sales increase point out to the Germans desire to spend more money than to save.

Germany and Spain have already published the March inflation and both releases can be called positive.

There was the key support level of 1.0790 breakthrough. The level was broken through amid the lower volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to consolidated below the level of 1.0790. Then we expect the rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK released the last year 4th quarter payments balance. There was a negative trade balance reduction in the last quarter of 2014 which is a positive factor for the payments balance indicator. The UK consumer confidence index by GfK rose by 3 points to 4 points in February. All the five index components have grown.

The continued price consolidation above the strong support level of 1.4800 was followed by a breakthrough. The sellers could not fixate below this level and the pair returned above it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is are the resistance level of 1.4920. This level testing is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 1.4650 return.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was marked the carry trade transactions withdrawal the last day of the fiscal 2014 in Japan amid the capital repatriation by the Asian investors. The oil growth will contribute to the US dollar decrease which also plays into the bears’ hands within the pair USD/JPY.

The resistance of 119.20 breakthrough has led to the downward trend reversal. Despite the reduced volume, buyers have already come to the nearest target of 120.40. The resistance level of 120.40 approach is followed by the pair decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is under the Cloud and it is in the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement.
and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 119.20 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 118.00 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Apr 01, 2015 4:16 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

We had a multidirectional trend in the Forex market yesterday. At the end of the day the pair EUR/USD has grown amid the energy prices decline and the USA statistics releases. Bears continue to monitor the situation in the oil market that supports the US dollar demand. Even the euro area inflation positive release in March failed to encourage bulls to long with euro.

On the contrary, the pair GBP / USD enjoyed a steady demand during the day amid the UK bond yields increase. The UK GDP final data came out better than the forecasted medians which contributed to the British pound growth against the major competitors. Still the pair GBP/USD had fallen, but increased at the end of the trades.

The Japan fiscal year completion supported the demand for the national currency. The carry trade transactions withdrawal cheered bears to short and even the US consumer confidence positive release from the Conference Board was unable to change the USD/JPY trend.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Despite the euro zone inflation positive statistics - the single European currency cannot show any significant increase. The reason for that is the "black gold" bearish sentiment - as long as the Brent crude oil price is not fixed above the level of 57.50 $/barrel we should not expect strong demand for the pair. The US manufacturing sector business activity is of great interest.

Having broken the strong support level of 1.0790 downwards, buyers are trying to correct the price back to the level that had already served as the strong resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0925.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.0790 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0670, 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Center for Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics published the UK industrial production sector release. The indicator rose up to 54.4 from 54.0 in March. Capacity use rates in February allow us to count on the purchasing managers’ positive sentiment prevalence in the manufacturing sector.

The pound has been at the level of 1.4800 for the second week, either breaking through it downwards or upwards. As long as the trend line of 1.4920 is not broken through upwards, the bearish trend potential is still preserved.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.4920 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level of 1.4650 return.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar revaluation is a negative factor for the manufacturing sector and in this regard it is difficult to expect the ISM strong data publication.

There were the highly volatile news published (the Tankan large manufacturers sentiment index, the Tankan large non-manufacturing companies sentiment index). The news turned out to be positive for the yen to a large extent.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is under the Cloud and it is in the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement
and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 120.40. We do not exclude the falls to 119.20.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sat Apr 04, 2015 4:53 pm


"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US economic employment important data came out worse then forecasted medians will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the global financial markets. The ISM service sector data will be published on Monday, April 6.

The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.84. The pair EUR/USD increased by amid the USA Non-Farms and the US and Germany bond yields decline. Even the US trade balance positive release could not stop bulls from purchases.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was in the flat. The UK PMI construction sector weak data led to the quotations decrease to the level of 1.4775, but then the British pound has showed its growth.

The side trend was observed and with the USD/JPY during the day. The US trade balance positive release for February encouraged bulls to long, but without the strong dollar growth. The greenback sharply fell amid the negative US statistics.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US and the European Banks did not work on Friday. Traders took a wait before the US labor market publication that came out worse then forecasted medians. The ADP and ISM manufacturing sector indicators pointed out to the data output below the traders’ expectations. The manufacturing sector negative trends indicate the US economy slowdown.

As for the pair euro/dollar the key level is the downward trend line of 1.0925, which was broken upwards. The trend line breakthrough may lead to the medium correction formation upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Catholic world celebrated Good Friday and in this regard the London banks were closed. The weak macroeconomic statistics pointed out to the US labor market negative data. It should also be noted that in the context of low inflation investors will closely monitor the average earnings data.

The trade within this instrument was near the level of 1.4800 the whole week. The short-term level breakthroughs were followed by the returns reversal. The pair increased and tested the resisnace level of 1.4920 at the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4920 for a steady growth. The way to the marks of 1.5015, 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US and the Old World Stock exchanges were closed and therefore it is difficult to note increased volatility for the pair before the Non-Farms publications. The positions consolidation within the carry trade is completed.

The whole week the Japanese yen was in the flat between the levels of 120.20 and 119.40. The price sharply fell and broke through the support level of 119.20 amid the US negative statistics.

The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 118.30, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 117.50.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The range trade was again observed at the end of the last week within most of the major currency pairs. Perhaps it could be due to the fact that some traders have already gone to the Easter holidays and those who continue the trade have strengthened while waiting the US employment data output. The dollar decreased against the franc and the others majors after the Non-Farms publication.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Apr 06, 2015 8:43 pm



"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

Volatility in the market on Monday was weak the Easter holidays. The US dollar was knocked out after the March labor market statistics release last week. The Non-Farm number amounted 126 thousand which is worse than the investment banks economists consensus forecast by 120 thousand.

The indicator was also revised downwards by 31 thousand in February. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at the previous level of 5.5%. The only positive thing is the average earnings report. The US average hourly earnings increased by 0.28% to 24.86 dollars in March which exceeded the traders’ expectations. This release allows to count on the consumer prices growth in the second quarter. The March employment reports complemented a series of the US economic weak data that have recently come out and it took note in the market that June is the most likely period of interest rate increase, but can be probably removed from the agenda.

At the same time, there are opposing views, considering t hat we should not pay too much attention to this unexpected labor market result and the previous time limits are quite relevant. After a high volatility on Friday the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD showed a flat, and the pair USD/JPY slightly increased on the yesterday’s trades.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The European traders were on the Easter vacation yesterday. The Non-Farm negative release confirms the US economy decline, caused by the revaluation.

In the light of this we expect the corrective movement continuation. There is ahead the strong resistance at 1.1050 and we believe this level will be tested in the short term.

There was the downward trend line of 1.0925 breakthrough. The trend line breakthrough signals towards the downward trend reversal.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.0925 breakthrough upwards the way to the levels of 1.1050, 1.1150 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The London banks were closed yesterday and in this regard we noted the sluggish trade during the day. The United States published the ISM services sector business activity release.

The labor market negative Friday release will contribute to the US and the UK negative bond yields reduction that will generate a strong demand for the British pound.

Due to the level of 1.4920 breakthrough upwards the downward trend is moving slowly, but surely towards the upward correction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential correction growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5015, 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US labor market negative release did not leave to the dollar any drivers for a growth and as a result traders continue to take profits on the long positions.

The pair USD/JPY is trading in the flat below the mark of 119.20 and tested this level at the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 118.30 breakthrough down the way to the support 117.50 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Apr 07, 2015 5:18 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

We had a multidirectional trend in the Forex market yesterday. The German and the British traders were absent at the beginning of the week due to the Easter Monday celebration as a result we saw a calm trade. The pair EUR/USD increased to the level of 1.1000 - traders continued to win back the US labor market negative release for March, but bulls did not manage to consolidate above the 10th figure and the pair decreased.

A similar trend was and within the pair GBP/USD. After the British pound growth to the level of 1.4980 amid the steady demand in the oil market - traders fixed profits on the long positions. The pair decrease was fallowed by a consolidation.

The upward trend prevailed within the pair USD/JPY amid the risky assets demand. The US stock market opened the new trading week with quotations increase despite the business activity weak release for the ISM services. Then we have seen the US dollar strong quotations growth.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Traders returned to work after a long weekend. In this regard, there was a slight volatility surge. We expect the US and Germany negative bond yields.

The ISM service sector business activity negative data point out to the corrective movement continuation.

There has not been the round resistance level of 1.1050 test. The trading was on the lower volumes and was followed by the rebound downwards. The support level of 1.0925 was broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is шт the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The strong resistance level 1.0790 test will be followed by the euro consolidation.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the Markit Economics service sector business activity release. The UK/US service sector business activity indicators will come out in the positive area amid the ISM weak data which undoubtedly will be reflected in the quotations. The upward trend in the "black gold" market is also playing into the bulls’ hands within the British pound.

Buyers failed to fixate above the resistance level of 1.4920. The level break through was followed by the short-term price decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the resistance level of 1.4800.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The United States continue to disappoint investors with weak macroeconomic statistics. The ISM service sector business activity weak report was added to the negative labor market release which is a bearish factor for the dollar. The US stock market growth does not still indicate the strong demand for the risky assets.

Before having reached the strong support level of 118.30 amid the low volume, the price reversed upwards to the correction. Buyers raised the price to the nearest resistance level of 119.20. This level was broken through and the growth continued. The resistance level of 120.40 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.60.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Apr 08, 2015 6:17 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has strengthened its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.16. The pair EUR/USD was under pressure - traders continued to take profit on the long positions after the quotations growth on Friday and Monday.

The bearish sentiment was and within the pair GBP/USD. The March UK PMI services pleased traders with the strong data, but it did not help the pound to strengthen against the US competitor.

The pair USD/JPY closed the trading day of the week in the "green zone" amid the risky assets demand. Yesterday the world leading stock markets showed an increase that encouraged bulls to long after a short-time decrease.

Late in the evening the United States published the US Federal Reserve last meeting minutes. The monetary regulator announced all the key milestones in its quarterly economic forecast. Moreover, the United States published the crude oil deposits report for the last week.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The bulls have been trying to consolidate above 10th figure for the third consecutive week and each time, the euro faces the bears’ resistance. There will be the ECB monetary policy meeting next week (April 15) and the event may become the driver for the euro decrease.

The trades will be under the FOMC protocol influence which was published late in the evening. There was a short-term price rebound from the downward trend line and tested the support level of 1.0790.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0670 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The March UK PMI services showed the maximum growth over the past 6 months, pointing out to the stable economic growth in the first quarter of this year. We expect the US crude oil reserves reduction which will allow the bulls to consolidate above the psychological level of $60/ barrel within the Brent crude, and thus, it will put pressure on the US dollar.

The correctional price decline from the resistance level of 1.4920 was on the strong support level of 1.4800. The short-term trend line of 1.4800 testing was followed by the rebound upwardsand the resistance level of 1.4920.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is falling

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4800 line break that will open the way downwards to 1.4650.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan governor Kuroda said that the consumer price inflation was likely to reach 2% in the fiscal year of 2015/16. He also added that the real wages and real incomes would rise from April as the consequences after the sales tax increase have weakened.

The Japan 10-year bond yields increased from 0.33% to 0.40% in March. In this regard, the Bank of Japan should not expect changes in the asset purchase program which can cause the profit-taking wave on the long positions.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 120.40. After breaking 120.40 the buyers may go to 121.60 and 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Apr 08, 2015 6:18 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has strengthened its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.16. The pair EUR/USD was under pressure - traders continued to take profit on the long positions after the quotations growth on Friday and Monday.

The bearish sentiment was and within the pair GBP/USD. The March UK PMI services pleased traders with the strong data, but it did not help the pound to strengthen against the US competitor.

The pair USD/JPY closed the trading day of the week in the "green zone" amid the risky assets demand. Yesterday the world leading stock markets showed an increase that encouraged bulls to long after a short-time decrease.

Late in the evening the United States published the US Federal Reserve last meeting minutes. The monetary regulator announced all the key milestones in its quarterly economic forecast. Moreover, the United States published the crude oil deposits report for the last week.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The bulls have been trying to consolidate above 10th figure for the third consecutive week and each time, the euro faces the bears’ resistance. There will be the ECB monetary policy meeting next week (April 15) and the event may become the driver for the euro decrease.

The trades will be under the FOMC protocol influence which was published late in the evening. There was a short-term price rebound from the downward trend line and tested the support level of 1.0790.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0670 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The March UK PMI services showed the maximum growth over the past 6 months, pointing out to the stable economic growth in the first quarter of this year. We expect the US crude oil reserves reduction which will allow the bulls to consolidate above the psychological level of $60/ barrel within the Brent crude, and thus, it will put pressure on the US dollar.

The correctional price decline from the resistance level of 1.4920 was on the strong support level of 1.4800. The short-term trend line of 1.4800 testing was followed by the rebound upwardsand the resistance level of 1.4920.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is falling

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4800 line break that will open the way downwards to 1.4650.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan governor Kuroda said that the consumer price inflation was likely to reach 2% in the fiscal year of 2015/16. He also added that the real wages and real incomes would rise from April as the consequences after the sales tax increase have weakened.

The Japan 10-year bond yields increased from 0.33% to 0.40% in March. In this regard, the Bank of Japan should not expect changes in the asset purchase program which can cause the profit-taking wave on the long positions.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 120.40. After breaking 120.40 the buyers may go to 121.60 and 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Apr 09, 2015 6:23 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a multidirectional trend in the Forex market. The pair EUR/USD has closed the day in the "red zone" where it has been the third consecutive trading day amid the German 10-year bond yields which have fallen to the historic lows. As a result, the trading day was ended with the price decrease.

The pair GBP/USD has finished the third trading day in a negative area as well. Traders opened short positions at the attractive levels and the price reached the level of 1.47 at the end of the day. In the long term we expect all lower levels reaching and the stabilization at around 1.30, the major turning point for the pair will be the May elections due to the expectations that the Bank of England will raise the rates after the Federal Government will make the expected movement.

The pair USD/JPY grew at the end of the day. The Bank of Japan announced the monetary policy two-day meeting results which indicate that the monetary regulator expects the economic growth recovery in the medium term. In the light of this traders closed short positions that supported the demand for the dollar.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Germany published the February industrial production release. The industrial production increased by 0.2% m/m in February after a decrease by 0.4% in January while it was early reported a growth by 0.6%. The Germany economy is the euro area economy engine, but it cannot be as strong as it was thought. It is worth noting that there are not enough factors that can support demand for the US dollar now.

The resistance level of 1.1050 testing was followed by the euro active reduction against the US dollar. Despite the reduced volume, sellers were able to break through the support near 1.0670.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations


We expect the 1.0550 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.0420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistics published the trade balance report. The UK goods and services trade deficit fell unexpectedly to 606 million pounds in January 2015 after 2 142 million pounds in December. The main factor is the significant decline in the basic sector excluding oil and major commodities. There will be published decision about the interest rates.

The strong resistance level short-term of 1.4920 testing was followed by the price rebound downwards. The price broke through the support level of 1.4800 amid the low volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.4650 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4500 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The corporate reporting season started in the United States and we can expect that the most of American corporations’ indicators will be in the negative area amid the economic growth slowdown because of the US dollar strong revaluation.

Buyers have broken through the strong resistance level of 120.40 for the second time. The level of 120.40 breakthrough was at the lower volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 121.60 and 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc fell amid the dollar growth after the Fed optimistic protocols. According to the document, in general the committee members chose to start raising interest rates later in 2015, noting the dollar growth impact and the oil prices decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Apr 15, 2015 3:37 am



"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar began the new trading week with the price growth but yesterday it fell against the majors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 98.81. The United States published the retail sector sales report. The wage growth with the high demand for cars in March point out to the positive release that earlier only strengthened the demand for the US dollar. The pair EUR/USD was under pressure and at the moment it reached the mark of 1.0520. Traders continue to focus their attention on the debt market dynamics and the German 10-year low bond yields force investors to get rid of the euro. Nevertheless the euro/dollar had increased at the end of the trades.

The pair GBP/USD was in demand amid the profit taking on the short positions as well as the pair EUR/GBP quotations reduction which supported the British pound. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased.

The pair USD/JPY was in a downward trend. Bulls were able to take the pair to the level of 120.84, but then when investors fixed profits on the long positions in the NYSE stock exchange - bears were able to regain lost ground.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders’ attention was drawn to the euro area industrial February production positive data. Last week the Old World leading economies reported about the manufacturing sector growth. In addition, the single European currency devaluation has significantly strengthened the European exporters’ position.

The euro is correcting against the US dollar. The decline was not at the highest volume that allowed the support level of 1.0550 to withstand sellers in the short terms. Te pair tested the resistance level of 1.0670.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0790. After breaking 1.0790 the buyers may go to 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National Statistics Office published the UK March inflation release – the data was 0,01% y/y. The oil market stabilization with the retail sector sales increase in February point out to the data output within the forecasted medians. Seasonal factors also confirm this trend - we traditionally expected the consumer prices growth in the UK.

Last week sellers confidently broke through the strong support level of 1.4800 downwards. This week we predict the reversal level of 1.4800 break through that serves the role of the strong resistance.

Buyers checked this level for strength amid the GBP news. If the level testing is false, there will be the bearish trend confident continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4920.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

We observe bearish sentiments. As it was mentioned earlier - the March retail sales positive release can spur demand for the US dollar and contribute to the US and Japan bond yields continued expansion. However the yen strengthen against the dollar on the yesterday’s trades.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 119.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 118.30.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Apr 19, 2015 5:50 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was again under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of97.85. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the oil prices increase and the US constriction sector negative macroeconomic statistics. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had increased.

The UK 10-year bond yields showed growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts which cheered bulls to long. The British pound had increased during the trades but it slightly corrected by the end of the day.

The pair USD/JPY has finished the fifth consecutive trading day in the negative area. The world leading stock markets showed a moderate decrease which together with the oil prices increase encouraged bears to short. Against this background, the pair dollar/yen had decreased by the end of the day.

The US inflation statistics is expected at the level of the forecasted medians. The wage growth with the energy cost increase indicates to the inflation expectations strengthening. The CPI fell by 0.1% last month compared to the last year March figures. The underlying index inflation rate growth was 1.8%.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders are not ready to break through the psychological level of 100.00 within the dollar index basket which does not allow the US dollar to strengthen its positions against the euro.

The German 10-year bond yields set a fresh historic low and fell below the mark of 0.10%. This factor has led to the Germany/USA and the Germany/UK negative bond yields significant increase.

The euro has broken through the strong resistance level of 1.0670 upwards. This level breakthrough was on the increased volumes - buyers are gaining their strength. The resistance level of 1.0790 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.0670 further on we expect a growth to 1.0790, 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK national statistics office published the February labor market release. The UK economy is showing signs of stable growth which allows us to count on the unemployment reduction. The unemployment rate is 5.6% that is 2008 minimum. The US moderately positive inflation data has frozen the bulls’ enthusiasm.

Buyers have tested the resistance level of 1.5015 and there was a rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4920, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.4800 and 1.4650. The buyers need to break above 1.5015 for a steady growth.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

We may expect the downward trend moderate development. Firstly, the oil prices increase is a negative factor for the US dollar. Secondly, there was a weak demand for the risky assets that can cheer bears to short. In this regard, we expect the level of 118.30 testing and after that we expect the market stabilization and the technical rebound.

The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. After breaking 119.20 the buyers may go to 120.40 and 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the dollar failed to strengthen on Thursday despite the business activity index increase to 7.5 pp in April from the earlier 5.0 pp.

A separate report showed that last week the number of jobless claims in the United States reached the 6-week high at the level of 294K.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Apr 29, 2015 3:02 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.04.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has already been demonstrating weakness for four trading days in a row - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished at the mark of 96.16 the last day. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in the demand after the US negative consumer confidence release by the Conference Board. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had increased.

Despite the UK GDP first quarter weak release for the pair GBP/USD also showed an upward trend. The index came out at the level of 0.3% instead of the expected 0.5% that pointed out to the UK economic slowdown. Nevertheless, the overall negative trend within the dollar did not allow bears to strengthen its position. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased.

The US stock market upward trend did not allow the Japanese yen to strengthen its position. At the moment the pair USD/JPY quotations reached the level of 119.20, after that we saw a sharp decrease in the market and as a result the trading day ended with the quotations decrease.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting results were the main event of the yesterday. As the US unemployment rate is declining, it does not disturb the Fed – we should pay attention to inflation. The inflation expectations are still quite low.

The upward trend is reaching the resistance level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Traders continue to ignore the UK negative macroeconomic statistics which indicates the strong buyers’ presence. The Unites States published the GDP release for the first quarter. Most leading indicators point out to the weak economic growth and in this regard we expect the data output within the range of 0.7-1% which will put pressure on the US dollar.

Trading volumes are in an increased zone, but they are gradually declining downwards. The rising trend indicates towards the formed correction that has not been confirmed yet.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5460 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

As now we should not expect from the US Federal Reserve comments about the monetary policy tightening - the dollar will be under pressure against its major competitors. It should also be noted that the Federal Reserve gold foreign exchange reserves in the first quarter have significantly declined that indicates the payments negative balance strong increase and the main negative factor is the strong dollar.

The formed strong consolidation is near the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 118.30 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.50.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Apr 30, 2015 4:35 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened against the pound and the yen. Earlier the US dollar was knocked out by the first quarter GDP negative release. The index came out at the level of 0.2% instead of the expected 1%. The personal consumption expenditures main index amounted to 0.9%.

This report is negative as the economic growth slowdown is obvious. The dollar revaluation had a negative impact on the US economy. The US Federal Reserve announced its monetary policy meeting results. The FED did not give the market a signal about the first interest rate increase that pointed out to the personal consumption decrease and the exports weakness. The Fed called a low inflation a temporary phenomenon as well as the low GDP. Against this background, the US dollar was under pressure.

We can expect the Old World moderately positive inflation data for April amid the euro area M-3 monetary aggregate growth as well as the Germany CPI increase. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had increased.

Great Britain did not publish important statistics. Therefore, dynamic was fully caused by the technical factors and the previously formed sentiments. As a result the pound has decreased.

The Bank of Japan monetary policy decision did not impress the market as the regulator has kept everything unchanged. The pair dollar/yen grew at the end of the trades.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US first quarter GDP release disappointed traders with the weak data. Its weak growth by 0.2% is a result of the US dollar revaluation. It should also be noted the personal consumption expenditures reduction for the first quarter which is a negative factor for the inflation. The low inflation will deter the Fed from the monetary policy tightening.

Buyers have broken through the resistance level of 1.0925 for the fourth time. The level breakthrough was amid the increased volume. The resistance levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150 were also broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1150 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1050, 1.0925.




Pound (GBP)

General overview

Despite the fact that the British pound has significantly strengthened for the last two weeks - the short-term uptrend is not complete yet. However we noted a downward rebound yesterday.

The UK GDP for the first quarter came out higher than in the United States. The UK GDP quarterly growth has lagged behind the US for the last nine months, but now the differential is changed which will put some pressure on the US dollar.

The British pound has been steadily strengthening against the US dollar for the third week. The prices growth is amid higher volumes which indicate the buyers increased interest to continue the bullish trend. The pair slightly corrected on the yesterday’s trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.5200 testing soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan will not increase the QE program amid the oil prices growth. This factor will not put pressure on the Japanese yen. The US first quarter GDP negative report froze the bulls’ enthusiasm in global stock markets that will make some traders to fix part of the long. This factor will commit the carry trade transactions which will support the demand for the Japanese yen.

The price has not been able to break through below the support level of 118.30 for the sixth week. The pair rebounded upwards and broke through the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 120.40. After breaking 120.40 the buyers may go to 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has rapidly grown against the dollar after the US GDP weak report, according to the preliminary assessment, its growth amounted to + 0.2% in the first quarter against + 1.0% and 2.2% in the previous period.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun May 03, 2015 4:48 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a multidirectional trend on the Forex market. At the end of the day the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the German 10-year bond yields increase relative to its main competitors. The US manufacturing sector in the first quarter showed a significant decline and taking into account the new industrial orders decrease it is difficult to expect the data better than the forecasted medians. In this regard, the US dollar will not be able to get support and to compensate for some lost ground.

On the contrary, after setting the fresh 2-month high of 1.5490 the pair GBP/USD was hit by the sales wave amid the long positions profit taking. The British pound can be further supported by the oil prices growth. On the other hand, the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate significant growth amid the Germany and the UK bond yields reduction may put pressure on the pound. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was in demand after the Bank of Japan negative economic forecasts publication. The GDP and inflation forecasts encouraged bulls for the long positions opening and against this background, the pair dollar / yen has increased.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro medium-term correction is still in force and bulls still open long positions on dips. The euro zone will not please traders with the important macroeconomic statistics and in this connection the traders’ attention will be focused on the US manufacturing sector business climate publication from the ISM.

The manufacturing sector showed significant decline in the first quarter and taking into account the new industrial orders decrease it is difficult to expect the data better than the forecasted medians. In this regard, the US dollar will not be able to get support and to compensate for some lost ground.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.1150 and a consolidation further on we expect a growth



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Great Britain and the United States published the manufacturing sector business climate reports. The industrial sector is showing clear signs of slowdown in both countries and we noted weak releases amid the new production orders low volume.

On the one hand, the British pound can be further supported by the oil prices increase. On the other hand, the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate significant growth amid the Germany and the UK negative bond yields will put pressure on the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5100 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Firstly, it is difficult to expect the United States ISM manufacturing index positive data. Secondly, sales on the US stock market after the GDP weak report publication for the first quarter may cause a wave of carry trade transactions and against this background the Japanese yen may receive additional support.

Sellers have failed to break through the strong support level of 118.30. The pair rebounded upwards and broke through the resistance level.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 120.40 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Fed information has frozen the bears’ enthusiasm within the dollar. Obviously, the market decided to take time out for a more detailed US Central Bank statements analysis that appeared after the FOMC meeting which indicated that the door for interest rates increase is still quite wide opened.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon May 04, 2015 4:15 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was able to compensate some lost ground - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.38. When the pair EUR/USD reached the mark of 1.1290 it declined to the level of 1.1150. At the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had decreased.

The pair GBP/USD is consolidating after it fell under the powerful sales wave amid the manufacturing sector PMI index negative macroeconomic release. The total index fell to its lowest level since September 2014. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased.

The pair USD/JPY has ignored the ISM US manufacturing sector business activity weak release. Bulls actively built up long positions and against this background the trading day ended with the quotations growth.

According to the ISM report, the US manufacturing sector economic activity continued to increase in April. However, the sector activity index has unexpectedly changed. The ISM noted that the PMI index was 51.5 in April, but it has not increased from the previous month.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was not any important macroeconomic statistics. We saw a rebound from the strong support level of 94.77 for three consecutive trading days within the dollar index (USDX) that indicates the strong buyers’ presence and the market possible reversal.

The "Greek question" negotiations have tightened, but the Germany and Greece 10-year bond yields decreased significantly in April that point out to the risk reduction which is a positive factor for the euro.

The resistance level 1.1260 has stopped the three-week euro uptrend. The pair rebounded from this level to the support level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound upwards.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

After the Markit Economics manufacturing sector PMI index weak data traders sold the British pound which proves the strong buyers’ absence in the market. Investors have ignored the UK negative macroeconomic releases for the last two weeks and built up long positions. Yesterday there was a public holiday in the UK.

The three-week pound strengthening against the US dollar stopped at the resistance level of 1.5460. The level testing was followed by a small consolidation with the following price rebound downwards. The rebound from the level was on the increased volume. The pair is testing the support level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics investors will focus their attention on the stock and bond market dynamics. The Tokyo stock markets were closed due to the public holiday. On the contrary, there was the Japan and the US bond yields increase on the debt market which is a bullish factor for the pair.

Buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the round resistance level of 119.20. At the moment the mark of 119.20 is the strong support.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 120.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue May 05, 2015 2:43 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market showed the calm trade amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics as well as the UK and Japan public holidays. Traders do not hurry to open positions because all the important events of the week are ahead.

The dollar correction stopped. The Eurozone and the US first manufacturing sector business climate reports pointed out to the differential shift in favor of the euro area in March and April. Secondly, the Germany and the US 10-year bond yields are declining which is a positive factor for the euro.

Yesterday the world leading stock markets opened the trading week with the quotations growth that would contribute to the building up the carry trade position within the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The US Commerce Department published the report that showed the number of industrial production orders sharp increase by 2.1% in March after the revised decrease by 0.1% in February.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We received the ISM releases that are important for the US dollar. Now the traders’ attention will be focused on the April labor market release on Friday May 8th. The Eurozone and the US manufacturing sector business climate reports point out to the differential shift in favor of the euro area in March and April.

The prices decreased amid the low volatility and the low trading volumes. Having broken through the support level of 1.1150, sellers have opened the way to the strong support level of 1.1050. The strong support level of 1.1050 test was followed by the euro growth. The resistance level of 1.1150 was broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.1260 further on we expect a fall.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Markit Economics published the construction sector business activity release. If the trade balance release does not cause the strong market reaction as the March report and the March data that include the GDP indicator for the first quarter, the ISM services sector business activity report can be a signal for the British pound mid-term correction completion in the case of positive data. The US dollar will be under pressure.

The pound correction has moved into the long-term consolidation framework above the mark of 1.5100. The formed consolidation is amid the low volumes that is a signal for the reversal upwards. The pair increased and tested the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5200 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.5015.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

For several days the Japanese yen has been the weakest asset among the five world leading currencies. Investors are inclined negatively towards the yen after the Bank of Japan lowered the GDP and inflation forecasts for 2015 and 2016 financial year.

The world leading stock markets opened the trading week with the quotations growth that will contribute to the building up carry trade position within the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

Until recently, the level of 119.20 was a strong resistance. Now it is no less the strong support. It should be noted that the mark of 120.40 was tested at the very low volumes. The pair rebounded downwards after this testing.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The bulls’ target is the level 120.40.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed May 06, 2015 5:18 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure against its major competitors. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the energy prices growth. The Brent crude oil quotations set this week fresh maximum.

Despite the April PMI index construction sector weak release the pair GBP/USD was also in demand during the day. The UK and the US negative bond yields reduction with black gold quotations increase encouraged bulls to long. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased.

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased despite the US service sector business activity positive release from ISM. The index came out at the highest level since December 2014 that indicates the US economy recovery after recession in the first quarter.

The ISM service sector employment rate for April has shown the maximum increase for the last six months. The four-week f jobless claims showed slight decrease which is also a positive factor for the labor market. However the ADP private sector employment release disappointed the market.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone will not please the traders with the important macroeconomic statistics and the traders’ attention will be drawn to the US data. The agency ADP issued the private sector employment release. Traders awaited the ADP positive data release which would support the US dollar. Still the release was a negative one that supported the euro and the pair grew.

The debt and commodity market dynamics indicates the uptrend within the single European currency. The Brent crude oil breaks through this year new highs which is a negative factor for the dollar.

The euro demand reversed towards the uptrend. The reversal came after the support level false breakthrough of 1.1150 amid the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the resistance at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential increase target is the resistance level of 1.1450.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Center for Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics published the UK the service sector data. The manufacturing and construction sectors two previous reports disappointed investors with the weak figures. The pair EUR/GBP cross-rate dynamics also plays into the bears’ hands within the British pound.

The rebound from the level of 1.5100 was followed on the increased volume and allowed buyers to break through the level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.5300 further on we expect a fall to 1.5200 and 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan banks were closed on the occasion of the state holiday. In this regard, we expect a low volatility during the Asian trading session. Investors will buy the quotations reduction amid the ADP negative data. The Australian bond yields demonstrate high growth that may contribute to the carry trade transactions increase. The pair AUD/JPY cross-rate had increased which is an excellent proof of that.

The price consolidation above the resistance level of 119.20 was followed by the level of 120.40 testing and the latest decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 119.20 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 120.40.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu May 07, 2015 4:56 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the April ADP private sector employment weak data. The index came out at the level of 169 thousand which is the lowest level since January 2014. However, the pair euro/dollar had decreased.

The GBP/USD has grown after the UK service sector business activity strong data publication. Then the pair consolidated. The final indicator came out at the mark of 59.5 that is the highest level since September 2014. This week the main attention within the pound will be paid to the UK elections which took place yesterday.

After the ADP weak data the US stock market sales have increased pressure on the pair USD/JPY. Yesterday the Japan markets started to work after a long weekend this week. By the end of the day the pair had increased.

Today we expect the report for which the market has been waiting the whole week: the US April Non-Farms release. In addition, the US will release the unemployment rate report. Both reports, along with the UK elections results will cause high volatility in the market.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone and the United States have disappointed traders with the negative macroeconomic releases. At the end of March the Old World retail sales decreased by 0.8% that point out to the weak domestic demand in the first quarter. The agency ADP has reported the new jobs low level in the private sector. Today, the US non-farm payrolls employment report will influence the market.

Buyers have broken through and consolidated above 1.1260. The breakthrough was on the increased volume. Then the pair tested this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the resistance at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.1450.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Yesterday there were the UK Parliament elections. Their results will have a direct impact on the currency. There was observed the US and the UK 10-year negative bond yield increase on the debt market which is a bearish factor for the British pound.

Having broken through the downward channel, buyers consolidated above 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.3665. After breaking 1.3665 the buyers may go to 1.3720.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japanese banks began their work after a long weekend. There was a bearish sentiment in the Tokyo stock market. In this regard, we noted the 119th figure testing followed by the rebound upwards. The Japanese yen with the US dollar is the market weakest currency asset and now we cannot count on the pair dollar/yen strong sales.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 119.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 118.30 will be opened.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc rose against the dollar after the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank governor Kocherlakota said that the dollar had grown substantially the last year. In Kacherlakota’s opinion interest rates increase in 2015 is inappropriate.

Meanwhile, today during his speech the Federal Reserve Chairman Jeanette Yellen said that low interest rates were necessary to achieve the objectives which would have a positive impact on the financial stability.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9160. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun May 10, 2015 7:57 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was able to compensate some of the lost positions - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.71. The pair EUR/USD set up the maximum near the mark of 1.1391 in the morning after which there was the long positions profit-taking wave amid the US jobless claims positive report. As a result, the trading day ended with the quotations decrease.

On the contrary, the pair GBP/USD set up the minimum at the level of 1.5162 in the morning after which there was quotations increase amid the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate decrease because of the long positions profit-taking. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was in demand amid the US stock market positive trend. Nevertheless by the end of the day quotations had decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ADP and ISM leading indicators employment, published last week, have not identified the trend, taking into consideration the manufacturing sector employment decrease as well as the ADP data output at the level of 169 thousand.

However, it is not necessary that the traders will actively sell the US dollar. Firstly, the labor force growth by 200 thousand per month is a positive factor for the US economy. Secondly, the debt and the commodity markets dynamics indicate the bullish sentiment predominance within the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1260 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1150, 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We should pay attention to the UK March trade balance. Two key factors point out to the weak output: the pound revaluation against the euro as well as demand decline in the euro area (the euro zone is the main UK trading partner). If we pay attention to the seasonal dynamics- the March month was negative for exporters.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to fixate above 1.5460 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.5550 and 1.5670 in this case.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

We expect the side trend development within the range of 119.20- 120.40. On the one hand, the non-farm payrolls moderately positive data will have some pressure on the yen and we may expect the prices decrease. On the other hand, the oil market correction with the US and Japan bond yields increase will support demand for the US dollar and will not let it decline heavily.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 120.40. After breaking 120.40 the buyers may go to 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar/franc will consolidate in the higher range after on Thursday it reached the three month low of 0.9060.

The US non-farm employment data can influence on its dynamics. The pair is supported by the improved market sentiment towards the US dollar, the Switzerland negative interest rates and the intervention threat by the Swiss National Bank with the Swiss franc sales and within the growing pair euro/franc.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon May 11, 2015 2:59 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a multidirectional trend in the Forex market yesterday. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the pair EUR/GBP quotations decline after the UK parliamentary elections results announcement.

After two unsuccessful days the GBP/USD could finish the trades in the "green zone". Traders reacted positively to the conservatives’ victory in parliamentary elections. By the end of the day the pair pound/dollar quotations have increased.

The USD/JPY has been trading in the flat near 119.65 -120.20. The US non-farm payrolls increased by 223 thousand in April. The unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.4%. Average earnings increased by 0.1% which is worse than traders had expected.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

In general, the USA unemployment data are good – the employment growth points out to the economy recovery after the first quarter recession.

However, the inflationary component has disappointed the market. The average hourly earnings came below the traders’ expectations while the March figure was revised in the negative side. The two-year Treasury bond yields reacted to the release with a decrease by 10.8 basis points that indicate the low inflation expectations.

Having broken through the intermediate support level of 1.1260, sellers continued the downward trend amid the increased trading volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a weakbuy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.1150 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1050 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK and the US bond yields fell by 11.8 basis points which indicate that the debt market participants reacted positively to the conservatives’ victory in parliamentary elections.

The Bank of England announced the monetary policy meeting results: key interest rate has remained the same - 0.5%.

The level of 1.5390 retesting was followed by the upward rebound and the previous high update of 1.5497. The resistance level of 1.5460 and 1.5550 were broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support levels of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The April US labor market release supported the demand for the US stock market as traders received a signal that the FOMC would not rush to the monetary policy tightening. This factor is a positive one for the pair as it will contribute to demand for the carry trade transactions through the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

In the absence of fundamental factors yesterday the trading day was held in the framework of the low volatility. There was formed a short-term consolidation near the level of 120.00 followed by a slight growth.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 120.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 121.60.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed May 13, 2015 3:59 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar is under pressure - the USDX finished the trading day at the mark of 94.51. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the energy prices growth as well as the Germany and the US negative bond yields reduction.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the industrial production positive release. In March the index increased by 0.5% which can allow us to count on the first quarter GDP revision for the better. The UK short-term and long-term government bond yields can be the best indicator for the market sentiment determination within the pair pound/dollar. The spread has been increasing for the last two months that point out to the low market expectations regarding the monetary policy tightening.

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the oil quotations growth which put pressure on the US dollar.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We pay attention to the euro area first quarter positive GDP publication. The ECB soft monetary policy is starting to bear fruit. The euro low rate has increased the European products competitiveness outside the euro area which has grown the trade surplus. The export growth may lay a good foundation for the unemployment reduction and the consumer spending increase in the future.

The United States published the retail sales report for April – the data remained unchanged. The correction from the resistance level of 1.1260 turned upwards - towards the current trend.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential increase targets are two resistance level of: 1.1450 and 1.1675.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We pay attention to the Bank of England inflation quarter report. On the one hand, the energy prices growth have increased the inflation expectations - the UK 10-year bond yields are now above the level of 2%. On the other hand, the low level of average earnings in the first quarter restrained inflation and the private consumption.

As the soft monetary policy is carried out in periods of low inflation – we should not exclude positive comments. Also we should not forget about the pound revaluation against the euro.

The uptrend has stopped for a short time below the intermediate resistance level of 1.5670. The price reached the level on the lower volumes. After the resistance level of 1.5670 breakthrough the level of 1.5775 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.5775 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 1.5950 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

We observe the Japan and the US negative bond yields strong increase on the bond market that will provide demand for the US dollar. The Australian bond yields are now higher the level of 3% which will enhance the carry trade transactions within the Japanese yen. Investors will form the cheap yen loans and direct them to the higher-yielding instruments purchases. Yesterday the pair AUD/JPY cross-rate increased by 1.1% which is the best proof of this trend.

The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 118.30 soon. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.50.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu May 14, 2015 2:32 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD increased amid the US retail sales negative reports. Traders had expected its growth by 0.3%, but the final figure came out at the zero mark. The April US PPI report will not be able to provide strong support for the US dollar. In the first month of the second quarter, the US 10-year bond yields have grown by 10 basis points that indicate the inflation expectations moderate increase.

Despite the Bank of England inflation negative report the pair GBP/USD still managed to finish the day in the positive territory amid the US retail sales weak data. By the end of the day quotations had increased.

The US weak economic data cheered bears to short with the USD/JPY which by the end of the day had consolidated. The debt market dynamics is also now on the bears’ side - the Japan and the US negative bond yields reduction will support demand for the Japanese yen.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US and the euro zone GDP differential has increased by 0.2% in the first quarter which will support the euro in the short term.

The US retail sales moderately negative data indicate that now we should not wait for the private consumption strong increase which will contribute to the strong economic growth in the second quarter.

Due to the level of 1.1260 breakthrough buyers opened the way to the maximum that is the resistance level of 1.1450.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1050.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England published its quarterly report which has lowered the GDP and inflation forecasts that also pointed out to the construction sector weakness and low investment that inhibit the labor productivity growth. Once again the monetary regulator noted that the strong pound (the pair EUR/GBP decline) had a negative impact on inflation.

The British pound continues to trade towards the upward trend. There was the resistance level of 1.5775 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5670, 1.5550.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Despite the bullish sentiment predominance on the world leading stock exchanges as well as the carry trade transactions growth within the pair AUD/JPY – the Japanese yen is in demand within the context of the US dollar sales. The Japan and the US bond yields reduction will support the demand for the Japanese yen.

Having not reached the last week maximum of 120.40, the upward trend reversed sharply downwards, breaking through the support level of 119.20. We observed the consolidation at this level.

The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc could strengthen on Wednesday amid the dollar decline.

The US dollar has suffered serious losses against all its major currencies after the unexpectedly US retail sales weak data publication. Retail sales amounted to + 0.0% in April while it was forecasted + 0.2%, but the sales excluding cars amounted to + 0.1% against + 0.5%.

The price is finding the support at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9280.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun May 17, 2015 11:27 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD has been in the positive area for three trading days in a row. At this time the quotations growth was after the US April PPI weak data. The report points out that it is quite early to talk about the inflationary pressure growth in the world leading economy now.

During the day the pair GBP/USD also showed more modest growth because of the EUR/GBP correction and a consolidation as well as the investors’ concerns about the Bank of England inflation and GDP forecasts.

At the end of the day the pair USD/JPY has strengthened amid the US stock market strong growth as well as the US and Japan negative bond yields increase. The pair fell and closed the trades neutrally.

It should also be noted that investors have negative attitude towards the US dollar and actively get rid of it – yesterday the dollar index basket (USDX) consolidated below the 94th figure. Still, we expect profit-taking on the long positions amid the US industrial production moderately positive data for April.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German 10-year bond yields are growing relative to the US and the UK counterparts which may support the demand for the euro. The commodity market dynamics is also playing against the US dollar now. The commodities quotations growth has a negative impact on the dollar as the cost of raw materials was denominated in the US dollar during the dollar prices growth.

Having broken through the strong resistance level of 1.1260, the price corrected to this level to check it for strength. Now this resistance is playing the role of a reference support now. Then the pair tested the resistance level of 1.1450.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen show aт upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1450 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1675 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK 10-year bond yields are close to the level of 2% now which may support the demand for the pound. The average earnings growth and the oil market upward trend with the unemployment decline to 5.5% can allow us to count on inflation in the short term and these expectations are pushing the pair upwards.

The British pound is actively strengthening against the US dollar. Almost without correction the price rose up sharply, having reached the level of 1.5775.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow. After breaking 1.5775 the buyers may go to 1.5950.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Bullish sentiments in the US stock market with the US and Japan bond yields increase will support demand for the pair USD/JPY. On the other hand, investors sell the US dollar along the entire market which cannot allow us to count on the strong dollar growth.

The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 119.20, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 118.30 and 117.50.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar slightly strengthened its position against the franc after the published data showed that US initial jobless claims for the last week amounted to 264K against forecasted 273K. The index was near 15-years low that indicates the labor market positive trends.

The price is finding the support at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9280.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short. When the pair consolidates below the level of 0.9160, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon May 18, 2015 2:49 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was supported - the dollar index basket (USX) finished the trading day at the mark of 93.29. The pair EUR/USD increased after the US industrial production and consumer confidence weak macroeconomic statistics publication from the University of Michigan. At the end of the day the pair decreased.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trading day in the negative territory - quotations declined amid the profit taking on the long positions after the eight- days’ quotations growth.

The winner in the bears and the bulls’ dispute within the pair USD/JPY were the bulls. The upward trend in the world leading stock markets is supported by the dollar demand and at the moment quotations reached the mark of 119.95, but after the US negative reports the Japanese yen was able to recover lost ground. Then the pair grew again.

Taking into account the US industrial production and consumer confidence negative macroeconomic statistics– we cannot count on the US dollar strong growth.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Michigan University negative release suggests that Americans are inclined to save more than spend and this is a negative factor for the economy.

In the light of this the US the Germany negative bond yields continued to decline which supports the demand for the euro. Moreover, the Germany and the UK bond yields also significantly declined which would contribute to the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate growth and may also support the euro against the dollar.

The upward trend is still preserved despite the divergence formation on the trading volumes. Having broken through the resistance level of 1.1260, the price tested the level of 1.1450. Then the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260, 1.1150



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Great Britain and the United States will not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases. In view of the debt market negative dynamics (the UK and the US negative bond yields increase) it was noted the bearish sentiment predominance. At the same time the commodity market dynamics may put pressure on the US dollar as the commodity goods growth causes the dollar decline.

Having tested the level of 1.5775, the British pound turned downwards towards correction. The support level of 1.5670 was broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.5670 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.5550 will be opened. The upward bounce potential target is 1.5775.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the March machinery and equipment orders report: the base value amounted to + 2.9% for the month and + 2.6% for the year. The commodity market positive dynamics will put pressure on the US dollar.

The pair tested the level of 119.20 and rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 120.40 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 119.20, 118.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue May 19, 2015 3:54 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar strengthened to its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.31. Traders took profits on the short positions within the US dollar which caused the dollar growth.

The United States can please traders with the construction sector positive data.

The mortgage rate reduction may have a positive impact on the number of issued building permits. However, the Conference Board consumer confidence negative report pointed out that we should not count on the strong deviation from the consensus forecast in a positive direction.

The Consumer Comfort Index, considered by Bloomberg, fell to 43.5 for the week (4-10 May) that is the lowest level since the beginning of March) against 43.7 the previous week. The US economy assessment fell to the five-month low, confidence also fell among the full-time and part-time employed. Retail sales have changed little in April after decrease by 0.2% from January to March. The US economic prospects index fell to 34.5 (the lowest level since mid-December) from 35.8 the previous week.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was the euro sales yesterday, still it is too early to talk about the changes within the short-term trend. The euro devaluation with the ECB loose monetary policy strengthened the German exporters’ position which had a positive effect on the Old World leading economies. In this connection, we expected the institute ZEW business climate output slightly better than the forecasted medians that will support the demand for the euro. Nevertheless the release came out worse then the forecasted medians.

The level of 1.1260 breakthrough signals about the upward trend reversal. The support level of 1.1150 was broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.1050 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.0925 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National Statistics Office has published the UK April inflation report. The energy cost increase with the labor market positive trend points out to the consumer price index growth. But the negative data put the British pound under a pressure. The US construction sector moderately positive data may force some traders to take profits on the long positions.

The British pound is correcting against the US dollar amid the low volatility. The correctional price reduction was on the low volumes. There was the intermediate support level of 1.5550 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the support level of 1.5390.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US stock market index S & P500 set a fresh historical high which supported the demand for the risky assets and had a positive impact on the pair USD/JPY quotations as investors used the yen as a funding currency to finance transactions within the high-yield instruments.

The trade within the Japanese yen is not clear. The pair was trading for a long time in the range, rebounding from the levels of 120.40 - 119.20. Yesterday the resistance level of 120.40 was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 121.60 further on we expect a fall to 120.40, 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed May 20, 2015 2:13 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar strengthened significantly relative to its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.46. The pair EUR/USD came under attack amid the ECB stimulating measures increase rumors. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had decreased.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was also under pressure amid the UK April weak inflation data. The CPI went into the negative territory for the first time since 1960 and against this background the trades ended with the quotations decrease despite a correction was observed earlier.

The bullish trends in the world's leading stock markets contributed to demand for the pair USD/JPY which by the end of the day had increased.

Taking in consideration the oil prices decline traders expected demand for the US dollar before the US Federal Reserve last meeting minutes publication. Bearing in mind the US low inflation expectations, we expected the "pigeon rhetoric" in the report and in this regard an upward rebound in the market.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The currency and the commodity markets’ sales with the US Treasury bond yields increase point out to the short-term trend reversal. During the day we noted the bearish sentiment predominance. Yesterday the ECB high-ranked official gave an interview in which he noted that the monetary regulator could increase the rates amid the summer time stimulating measures. Late in the evening the FOMC protocols were published.

The euro decline against the US dollar was followed by the support levels’ breakthrough: 1.1260 and 1.1050. The levels’ breakthroughs were on the increased volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0925 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound was under pressure during the day. The CPI release showed the deflation for the first time since 1960. The Bank of England monetary policy minutes also do not promise dividends to the British pound- the monetary regulator has repeatedly stated about the deflation risks and also stated the fact that the strong pound had a negative impact on consumer prices.

The pound decline against the US dollar reached the strong support level of 1.5460. The pair rebounded upwards to 1.5550 and then it fell again.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.5460 further on we expect a growth.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the GDP data for the first quarter. The GDP rose up by 0.6% in the first quarter and increased by 2.5% on the annual basis. The GDP rose up by 0.4% in the fourth quarter. The result was higher than the consensus forecast relative to the 0.4% growth on the quarterly basis.

Despite the fact that the trading volumes are still in the low zone, the buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the resistance level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 120.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu May 21, 2015 4:09 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was trading different directed - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.64. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD increased. Earlier the pair decreased amid the Germany and the US negative bond yields increase.

The Bank of England in its monetary policy last meeting minutes revised upwards the GDP forecast for the first half of the year which caused the profit-taking wave on the short positions within the pair GBP/USD which by the end of the day had increased.

The Japan GDP rose up by 0.6% in the first quarter which exceeded the traders’ expectations; however, this factor could not help the Japanese yen which was under pressure amid the carry trade transactions increase. By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had increased.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The FOMC minutes publication did not bring any surprises - most of the members do not expect the Fed rate increase at the June meeting while in the case of the strong macroeconomic data the monetary point of view can be changed. It is worth noting that the credit market did not react to the report - the Treasury short-term and long-term bond yields have not practically changed in an hour after the data publication which points out to the expectations absence, concerning the monetary policy tightening in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1150 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1050, 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England monetary policy meeting minutes have supported the British pound amid the fact that the monetary regulator raised its GDP growth estimate for the first and the second quarters this year. Two MPC members were inclined to tighten the monetary policy, however, they voted in favor of its preservation in its present form. It is worth noting that the bond market has reacted negatively to this release - the long-term and the short term securities differential has increased which points out to the fact that the soft monetary policy will not be finished in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 1.5670. The downward bounce potential target are 1.5550 and 1.5460.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan GDP positive data for the first quarter were not able to support the national currency. Those days when traders ignored the fundamental data - we dealt with the strong short-term trend.

There was a correction, now we may expect the partial profit taking on the long positions on the Tokyo Stock Exchange which may add some pressure. However, this decline should be used to long as the upward trend is quite strong.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has stabilized.

The FOMC long-awaited minutes did not bring any surprises and recorded that many committee members believe that the economic situation does not allow raising the rate in June.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue May 26, 2015 5:42 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a rather quiet trade in the Forex market at the beginning of the week. The France, Germany, Switzerland, the UK and the USA public holidays are to blame. Among the major financial centers trades took place only in Tokyo and Hong Kong, but the main revenue comes from London and New York that rested on Monday.

As a result, there was a horizontal trend within the major currency pairs, but even against this background, the US dollar enjoyed moderate demand which confirms the US dollar bullish trend strength. Traders returned to the market yesterday, and the dollar rose significantly against major currencies.

The United States pleased traders with the moderately positive macroeconomic statistics. The durable goods orders report came out within the forecasted medians amid the weak car sales in April and the durable goods orders index excluding equipment transportation that was expected slightly better than the consensus forecast amid the employment and average earnings growth.

Investors reacted positively to the April US Core CPI growth which increased by 1.6% to 1.8% on the annual basis from the beginning of the year. There were rumors again in the market that the Fed was going to raise interest rates at the next meetings.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The "Greek factor" once again stirs the euro-zone economy. Athens began to declare that they had no money for the June IMF tranche at the end of the last week. The debt market immediately reacted to this Greek bond yields increase relative to the German ones which also carries a risk for the single European currency.

The beginning of the week was calm amid the increased volumes and low volatility. The price reduced downwards through inertia. Then the pair decreased amid the dollar strengthening. There is not support from the sellers’ part. But due to the fact that the trade continues towards the downward channel bears are still strong.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.1050 further on we expect a fall to 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound was under pressure amid the US dollar global upward trend. It is worth noting that the rate of its decline will be less than the euro decrease. It is due to the fact that the EUR/GBP downward trend got some support for the British pound.

The pound broke through and consolidated below the support level of 1.5460. Trading volumes are in the decreased zone and the price is trading around 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5390, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

It was noted the bullish sentiment predominance within the pair dollar/yen. All the key financial centers worked yesterday as usual and in this regard there was the upward trend continuation within the US dollar. Expectations about the federal funds rate increase reinforce the dollar bullish sentiment. Everything is quite simple: the Fed, unlike the Bank of Japan is set to tighten monetary policy which deprives the Japanese yen of trumps for the quotations growth.

The last six months there was a quite large-scale flat. The price was traded in the side corridor of 117.50 - 121.60 for a long time which was formed after the sharp price rise. Yesterday the pair showed a strong increase and broke through the resistance level of 122.30.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. As long as the price is trading in the upward channel buyers remain strong. The bulls’ target is the level of 124.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu May 28, 2015 6:42 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the last trading day at the mark of 97.37. Yesterday only the United States released a portion of macroeconomic statistics. The durable goods orders came out slightly worse than the forecasted medians while the Conference Board consumer confidence index exceeded the traders’ expectations. The US Treasuries short-term and long-term bond yields have been reduced after these statistics publication that encouraged bulls to long. As a result, the trading day the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD finished with the quotations decrease, the pair USD/JPY has increased.

According to the US Department of Commerce, the primary market home sales volume increased more than expected in April. According to the revised data, the index rose by 6.8% to the annual rate of 517,000 from the mark of 484,000 in March. According to the original data, economists had expected the primary market housing sales would increase to the level of 509,000 from 481,000 the previous month.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US and Germany 10-year government bonds yields increased which is a negative factor for the euro. The German and the Greek bond yields have also grown upwards.

Athens has already made it clear to its creditors that they cannot fulfill their obligations and the debt market dynamics signals to us that at the moment the compromise is not found.

The euro activity has been declining against the US dollar for the second week. The downward trend is developing amid the increased volumes - sellers are still dominant in the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1050, 1.1150.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The United States and the United Kingdom did not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases and it is necessary to pay attention to the debt and commodity markets’ dynamics. The UK 10-year bond yields are declining in the bond market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which will put pressure on the British pound. Today the Britain will publish the WFP.

The downward trend has strengthened after the strong support level of 1.5390 breakthrough. Now the mark of 1.5390 serves as the strong resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5490.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5300 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5460, 1.5550.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan monetary policy report was published, however, the market has already received all of the key benchmarks from the Japanese regulator. The pair dollar/yen came out from the two-month consolidation towards the main trend and the global demand for the US dollar indicates that this trend is not yet complete and will be continued. Investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan bipolar monetary policy which support the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upwards movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the resistance level of 123.50. After breaking 123.50 the sellers may go to 122.40 and 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun May 31, 2015 9:16 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

After the two-day growth the US dollar got under pressure. The USDX finished the last trading day at the mark of 97.14. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the short positions profit taking after the US jobless claims negative release. Now investors do not have a good alternative to the US dollar. We also cannot ignore the "black gold" market dynamics. The oil trading finished in the "green zone" amid the US inventories decline.

The UK GDP second assessment remains unchanged that at the moment put pressure on the pair GBP/USD which fell to the level of 1.5260 after which there was the short positions profit-taking that caused the technical rebound towards 1.5300. The UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised in to the negative side.

The Japan weak April retail sales contributed to the pair USD/JPY growth which by the end of the day had increased.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We pay attention to the US first quarter GDP publication. Taking into account this economic growth second assessment and the trade balance, industrial production and employment weak macroeconomic releases for March we expected the index revision downwards and the data output within the forecasted medians. The GDP decreased by 0,7%.

The euro corrective growth is not supported by volumes and it looks quite weak. Buyers have broken through the resistance of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1050. We do not exclude the falls to 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised into the negative side.

The downward trend is gradually losing its strength. In recent days we observe the reduced volatility in the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5390 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5200, 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published a block of important macroeconomic statistics where the April inflation data are standing apart. The unemployment reduction and the average earnings growth in March indicate the CPI increase. The Japanese 10-year bond yields decreased by seven basis points in April which does not allow us to count on the data output significantly better than the forecasted medians.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 123.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 122.40 and 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

After the US ambiguous economic data the US dollar corrected its achievements, but in general it remains positive.

Last week the initial jobless claims totaled 282k against the expected. 270k, but the unfinished home sales transactions totaled 3.4% in April against expected 0.9%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun May 31, 2015 9:16 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

After the two-day growth the US dollar got under pressure. The USDX finished the last trading day at the mark of 97.14. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the short positions profit taking after the US jobless claims negative release. Now investors do not have a good alternative to the US dollar. We also cannot ignore the "black gold" market dynamics. The oil trading finished in the "green zone" amid the US inventories decline.

The UK GDP second assessment remains unchanged that at the moment put pressure on the pair GBP/USD which fell to the level of 1.5260 after which there was the short positions profit-taking that caused the technical rebound towards 1.5300. The UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised in to the negative side.

The Japan weak April retail sales contributed to the pair USD/JPY growth which by the end of the day had increased.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We pay attention to the US first quarter GDP publication. Taking into account this economic growth second assessment and the trade balance, industrial production and employment weak macroeconomic releases for March we expected the index revision downwards and the data output within the forecasted medians. The GDP decreased by 0,7%.

The euro corrective growth is not supported by volumes and it looks quite weak. Buyers have broken through the resistance of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1050. We do not exclude the falls to 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised into the negative side.

The downward trend is gradually losing its strength. In recent days we observe the reduced volatility in the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5390 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5200, 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published a block of important macroeconomic statistics where the April inflation data are standing apart. The unemployment reduction and the average earnings growth in March indicate the CPI increase. The Japanese 10-year bond yields decreased by seven basis points in April which does not allow us to count on the data output significantly better than the forecasted medians.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 123.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 122.40 and 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

After the US ambiguous economic data the US dollar corrected its achievements, but in general it remains positive.

Last week the initial jobless claims totaled 282k against the expected. 270k, but the unfinished home sales transactions totaled 3.4% in April against expected 0.9%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Jun 01, 2015 4:12 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was declining amid the GDP second assessment first quarter weak data. The final figure was revised into the negative side to the level of 0.7%. In the light of this the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 96.94. Besides the US weak data, the Germany positive statistics contributed to the quotations growth. Retail sales rose up by 1.7% in April that encouraged traders to long. Still ISM supported the dollar and the pair EUR/USD decreased by the end of the day.

The pair GBP/USD was under pressure amid the UK and the US negative bond yields increase, but after the US GDP weak data it was able to recover partially some lost ground. Nevertheless, the trades ended in the negative region- quotations have declined.

The Japan inflation and industrial production positive statistics did not bring the desired dividends to the Japanese yen. The powerful bullish trend within the pair USD/JPY pair is continued - according to the trades results, quotations have increased.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro enjoyed a moderate demand amid the Germany inflation positive report. The moderate wage and the energy prices growth with the unemployment reduction point out to the inflationary pressure growth in the Old World leading economies. The PMI manufacturing revised index by the Markit Eurozone fell to the level of 52.2 in May against 52.3 the previous month. The analysts’ forecast was 52.3. The ISM manufacturing index showed a growth to the level of 52.8. The dollar strengthened amid this data.

The euro was correcting against the US dollar. The price growth is on the higher volumes. However the pair decreased to the support level of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0790 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK PMI manufacturing index rose up to 52 in May compared with 51.9 the previous month and the forecast of 52.5.

The Bank of England in its monetary policy latest minutes pointed out that we should expect the UK GDP growth in the second quarter and therefore, we may count on the positive data output as industrial production is the cyclical economic indicator.

The two-week pound decline against the US dollar stopped at the support level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5200 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 102.25, further then towards 102.70.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Last Friday we saw sales in the US and the Japanese stock market which indicates the lack of demand for the risky assets. The debt market also points to the upward trend completion: the US and Japan negative bond yields shows a decline. There was the positive manufacturing sector business activity report published from the ISM. This points out to the bullish sentiment prevalence.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 125.50., the next on is the level of 127.00




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:59 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The new trading week the US dollar began with a growth. However it fell yesterday - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.51. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased. Earlier it showed a decrease amid the US ISM manufacturing sector positive report.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was under pressure after the UK manufacturing sector PMI weak data. Nevertheless, the trading day ended with the quotations increase. The Bank of England in its quarterly economic forecast, published in early May, pointed out to the real estate sector decline. However, according to the April data - the mortgage loans volume rose up to the mark of 42.1K that smoothes the negative picture.

The US production sector ISM index positive data point out to the US economy recovery after recession in the first quarter which accelerated the pair USD/JPY growth. However the pair by the end of the day had decreased.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone leading economies have already reported about the CPI growth by the end of May which may support the euro demand. On the other hand, we cannot ignore the debt market dynamics. The Greece and the Germany bond yields increase indicates the investors’ negative expectations about the "Greek question" decisions ‘perspectives.

This month Athens has to pay 1.6 billion euros to the IMF and the first payment is scheduled for the 5th of June.

The trading was around the level of 1.0925. Yesterday the euro sharply grew and broke through the resistance levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1460 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK manufacturing sector business climate indicator pointed out that the Bank of England was quite optimistic in their GDP estimates for the second quarter of this year. The construction sector PMI index was published the other day.

The Bank of England in its quarterly economic forecast, published in early May, pointed out to the real estate sector decline. However, according to the April data - the mortgage loans volume rose up to the mark of 42.1K that smoothes the negative picture.

The short-term consolidation above the support level of 1.5200 was followed by attempts of its breakthrough. On the volume sellers consolidated at the mark of 1.5200 but they did not break it downwards. The pair increased at the end of the trades and broke through the resistance level of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5460 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5300, 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US ISM manufacturing sector business climate report points out to the industrial growth. There was noted the orders growth in the 11 sectors and the employment growth in 14 sectors, including the oil sector which in recent months has experienced hard times because of the energy low prices.

The resistance level of 124.30 did not stop the upward trend. The continuous consolidation below the level was followed by breakthrough. However the consolidation above the broken level was short-term and the pair fell below it.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 123.50 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 122.40, further then towards 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Jun 03, 2015 3:34 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar came under a sales wave – the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 95.90. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased after the euro area inflation positive data as well as the positive expectations about "the Greek question" resolution.

It was expected that the ADP employment report as well as the services sector ISM index will be able to please the traders with the positive data. However the services sector ISM index came out worse then forecasted median and the ADP employment report – better then it was expected. The ISM manufacturing sector business climate index points out to the US economy growth which will contribute to the dollar increase.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid short positions profit taking after the UK PMI construction sector positive releases.

The pair USD/JPY set a fresh 12-year high near the mark of 125.05 and after that traders started to close long positions. However after a slight decrease as a result, the trading day ended with the quotations growth.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has shown strong growth amid the positive expectations about "the Greek question" resolution.

The euro is supported by the number of factors. The German and the US government bond yields reduction. The Greece and Germany negative bond yields are also declining amid the positive expectations about the Greece agreement with its creditors. The US April trade balance report pleased investors with strong data.

The resistance level of 1.1150 breakthrough was followed by the euro active growth against the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We pay attention to the Markit Economics services sector PMI index release. The current indicator is higher than the annual average which indicates this economic sector growth. However the data came out worse then forecasted medians.

The service sector ISM index negative data may contribute to the US Treasury bond yields decrease amid the US Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening expectations.

The pound two-week decline was followed by the correction formation. The corrective price increase was on the high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5300 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.5200, further then towards 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen received fewer dividends of all majors. Investors are increasing their long positions on dips based on the uptrend continuation. The manufacturing sector ISM index points out to the positive dynamics continuation in a series of the US macro-economic reports.

The Japan and the US negative bond yields increase may put pressure on the Japanese yen.

Having consolidated for a short time below the support level of 124.30, the price returned above the level, breaking through it through down - top.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 125.50 for a steady growth.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Jun 04, 2015 3:33 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD had increased amid the ECB inflation forecast revision for 2015. However it slightly fell by the end of the day.

On the contrary, the pair GBP/USD had decreased by the end of the day after the service sector PMI index weak data release when the pair fell to the lowest level this year that confirms the UK low economic growth. The pair fell after a strong growth. There was published the GDP growth forecast in the second quarter to the level of 0.7% according to the Bank of England last meeting minutes. The data about the managers’ mood in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors indicate that this indicator will be below the forecast level. It should also be noted that the Brent crude lost more than 2% amid the negative expectations for the OPEC summit.

The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the risky assets demand. The carry trade transactions again put pressure on the Japanese yen. The yen devaluation has a positive impact on Japanese exporters - in April industrial production increased by 1% while in May the manufacturing PMI rose above 50%.

The US initial jobless claims showed positive release. The May index fell to 8000 to 276 000. The forecast growth was 279,000.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The EUR/USD had renewed the maximums and formed a consolidation. The ECB raised this year inflation forecast by 0.3% which caused the Germany and the US negative bond yields reduction. In its turn, this factor will provide some support to the euro. However, as the day was not rich with important macroeconomic statistics the market showed some stabilization in anticipation of the Friday US labor market report.

The euro has been actively strengthening against the US dollar for three days amid the increased volumes. Having broken through the strong resistance level of 1.1260, buyers strengthened their positions. Nevertheless the pair fell to this level at the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1050 and 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England announced the monetary policy meeting results. Traders did not expect any changes. The monetary regulator has repeatedly stated that it was ready to ease the monetary policy in case of the deflation risk, but now the situation is generally stable. During the first summer days the UK 10-year government bond yields showed an increase that point out to the UK inflation expectations growth.

The pound showed a strong growth but now we observe a slight decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY is consolidating and closed the trades with a slight decrease. The Bank of Japan governor gave his speech which supported the Japanese yen. Mr. Kuroda noted the inflation expectations growth amid the wages and energy prices increase. The Japan 10-year bond yields have increased by 12 basis points for the last month.

The US dollar strong growth against the Japanese yen went into a prolonged consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 123.50 and 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has grown while the dollar has reached its minimum level for the week against the euro and suffered losses against several other major currencies after the ECB has kept its monetary policy unchanged while the German Bunds bond yields continued to grow. The dollar had strengthened only at the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

avatar
ValdisTF

Posts : 557
Points : 1879
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-05-10

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 4 of 10 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum