"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Jul 06, 2014 4:32 pm

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Due to that fact, TradeFort has successfully re-branded and since 29th of June works under a Fort Financial Services brand. We have tried to maximally improve our fundamental and technical analysis of financial markets.

We hope, that you will appreciate the analysis we provide. We are looking forward to hear your comments and suggestions.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Dec 14, 2014 2:21 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

The November US retail sales release returned everything on its places - the US dollar finished last week in the "green zone" along with the stock markets. The pair EUR/USD closed the trading with the price decrease by 0.5%. The US retail sector sales in November increased by 0.7% and in addition it was revised the October release towards growth. This report confirms the US economy increased strength that immediately reflected on the euro quotations. Nevertheless, the euro increased on the Friday trades.

In the bulls and bears dispute within the pair GBP/USD no one won at the end of the trading week. The UK 10-year bond yields have grown by 0.3% with the profit-taking on the long positions within the cross-rate EUR/GBP that did not allow the pound to develop a strong downward trend after the US positive retail for November. The pair is consolidating.

The Japan negative macroeconomic statistics and the US positive data forced bears within the pair USD/JPY to surrender. The two reports came out worse than traders had expected - the change in machinery and equipment orders as well as the service sector activity index. In this context, we receive the first wake-up call for an economic growth in the 4th quarter of this year.

On the contrary, the US pleased traders with the strong retail sales data that in November rose by 0.7%. This release with the leading indicators from ISM points out to the strong economic growth for the last three months of the year. The US and Japan stock exchanges have responded positively to the strong retail sector sales data and against this background, the pair dollar/yen started a consolidation.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The industrial sector business optimism by Markit Economics in October showed a symbolic increase and therefore we can expect the data release at the level of 0.1% - 0.2%. We cannot count on the strong release in terms of the France manufacturing sector strong reduction. The US producer price index data can also reach the level of the forecasted medians amid the "bears’ rally" on the oil futures market. The consumer sentiment index by the University of Michigan can also be at the consensus forecast.

The rice almost came to the upper border of the downtrend channel 1.2500, then it rebounded down. The rebound target was the support level of 1.2400, from which the price rose up.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.2400, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.2300 and 1.2200.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The trade within the pound has been for a long time near the downward trend line of 1.5750. The buyers tested this resistance last week.

It is worth noting that the price tested the 1.5760 resistance and then rebounded down. The support level of 1.5660 was also tested. The price is not determined the direction and consolidated.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5760, the next one is at 1.5870.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 1.5660.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen fell at the end of last week for the first time on rumors that the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of the Liberal Democratic Party will probably win in the elections which took place on the weekend.

The Japan basic machine orders data points out to the Japanese economic difficulties. According to the data, the leading capital expenditure indicator decreased by 6.4% after growth during five months in October while economists expected decline by 1.9%.

The support level short-test of 118.00 was followed by the prices rebound upwards with the further downtrend channel upper bound of 119.20 testing. Then the pair decreased under this resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 119.20. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 120.40 and 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar exchange rate increased due to the US high retail sales. Nevertheless the dollar decreased at the end of the last week.

The good November indicators allow us to expect the Fed forecast revision towards the earlier policy tightening at the meeting next week. We expect that it will give significant support to the dollar at the end of the year

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates under the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9500.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:34 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the US dollar fell. Earlier it managed to recover some lost ground against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 88.50. The pair EUR/USD remained under pressure during the day amid the commodity markets sales.

The Brent oil is very close to the psychological level of $60/barrel that supported the US dollar during the day. The US industrial production release for November pleased traders by its positive data that also supported demand for the dollar. Then the USD decreased.

Bears were able to fully play the downward trend within the pair GBP/USD. The UK and the US negative bond yields encouraged traders for the opening short positions within the British pound that was fundamentally revalued in the short term.

Both the manufacturing sector and the Tankan service sector activity indices supported the demand for the Japanese yen. The strong data allow us to count on the Japan economic growth recovery. Sales on the global stock markets have also put pressure on the pair USD/JPY.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We wait for the Germany and France production sector PMI from Markit Economics as well as from the ZEW institute. It should be noted that these indicators are quite difficult to predict as they relate to the number of leading ones.

The pair has been near the downward channel upper bound for a long while. We see consolidation fallowed by the price increase.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target are 1.2400, 1.2300, 1.2200.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National statistics office will publish the consumer price index release for November. The UK government bonds dynamics is decreasing, signaling about the inflationary pressure decline. In the light of this we expect the data output at the level of year on year 1.2%.

There was a rebound from the resistance level of 1.5760. The rebound was followed on the increased volumes, but was met with a round mark of 1.5600 where now we see a correction upwards. Then it was the price downward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5760, the next one is at 1.5870.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.5660 testing soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Yesterday the US and the Japan bond yields grew on the bond market which is a bullish signal. The US macroeconomic statistics pleased traders with the positive data about the number of foundation installations amid the increasing consumer confidence in recent months that will also support demand for the US dollar.

There was a rebound from the resistance level of 119.20 on the increasing prices. The nearest rebound target is at the mark of 117.00 that has been already tested. The support level of 115.80 testing was followed by the price return above the level of 117.00.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go downward to the levels of 115.80, 114.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc consolidates against the dollar.

Investors escape from the risky assets and prefer not to risk amid the oil prices decline that create instability on the markets and force players to worry about the global economic health.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates under the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9500.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:09 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

Every day the US dollar is thrown from one side to another - yesterday we saw the dollar increase against the majors. Earlier the dollar index basket decrease (USDX) to the level of 87.63. The pair EUR/USD strengthened in the first half of the day amid the Germany positive macroeconomic statistics. Two indices – the PMI manufacturing and the ZEW business optimism indicator pleased traders with the strong data. It is worth noting the final index of the second macroeconomic release overcame an annual average that points out to the negative trend breakthrough. The euro devaluation as well as the lower degree of geopolitical tension was positive for the Germany business climate the last month of the year.

The pair GBP/USD was in demand despite the UK CPI negative report for November. The UK inflation reduced to the level of 1% in annual terms that caused the 10-year government bond yields decrease to the level of 1.77% and increased the negative spread with US securities. Nevertheless, traders opened "longs" within the British pound. In anticipation of the FOMC press conference the dollar weakened that can signal about the large buying orders at the low levels. The sterling decreased at the end of the trades.

The USD/JPY remained under pressure in the first half of the day amid the global equity markets sales and the US and the Japan yield spreads reduction. However, we observed the bulls’ return to the stock market at the US session that immediately reflected on the dollar/yen quotes. However, now it is too early to speak about the full technical correction completion – the Nasdaq stock index lagged behind their counterparts, pointing out to the low demand for the risky assets.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Today all the traders’ attention will be focused on the FOMC press conference, on the two-day monetary policy meeting results. The Fed will announce its economic forecast and we expect the assessment revision towards the medium term increase.

Buyers could not confidently break through the support level of 1.2500. The key resistance breakthrough was on the increased volume. Nevertheless the pair fell again and tested the level of 1.2400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.2670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK weak inflation release for November questions the further pound strengthening. The Bank of England's monetary policy minutes also will not be able to encourage traders - inflation expectations are reducing and the main trading partner weak economic growth will hold back the UK economic growth.

There were made attempts to rise trades to the higher levels within this pair. However, the resistance at the level of 1.5760 limited the pair growth and triggered the rebound downwards. The pair tested the support level of 1.5660.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5760, the next one is at 1.5870.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.5550.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen has not yet exhausted potential for its growth and today bears again will attack bulls. The US CPI release for November can demonstrate the inflationary pressure decrease that will lead to the Japan and the US negative yield spreads reduction.

There was the resistance level of 117.00 breakthrough upwards. The level breakthrough was on the increased volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The level of 117.00 retest is more likely to lead to a decrease to the strong price support levels 115.80 and 114.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US dollar compensated most of the losses incurred against the franc.

The Fed will publish a statement about the month meeting results this year. According to many analysts, the central bank will refuse to use the phrase "considerable time", referring to the period of continuing low interest rates.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates under the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9500.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:55 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve two-day meeting results announcement was the central event of the month. The monetary regulator increased the GDP growth rates assessment for the next three years. It was also noted the more rapid unemployment decline in 2015 and 2016. In this case, the financial authorities have reduced inflation forecasts in the short term and we expect decline to the level of 1% in the first half of the next year. At this meeting, the FOMC three members were in favor of raising the federal funds rate - the head of the Minneapolis Fed Kocherlakota was in the favor of the Fisher and Plosser traditional monetary policy. At the press conference, the head of the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates could be raised at any meeting in 2015 that indicates the transition from the conservative point of views to aggressive ones. Against this background, the euro was sold.

The pair GBP/USD was under pressure in the first half of the day after the Bank of England revised the inflation forecast towards the negative side. The MRS minutes reported the consumer prices decline that is less than 1% in annual terms that increased investors’ pessimism towards the British pound. Even the positive salary growth release could not have a significant impact on the market. The salary growth will have a positive impact on inflation and the GDP in the medium term, but the Bank of England short-term negative scenario once again will put pressure on the pound. The US Federal Reserve meeting results negatively reflected on the pound – traders actively get rid of the British pound that is fundamentally overvalued. Nevertheless the sterling increased at the yesterday trades.

That is what the bulls within the pair USD/JPY has been waiting for. The FOMC positive forecasts about the economic growth perspectives with demand on the US stock market encouraged traders for opening long positions. The pair dollar/yen has been the most undervalued currency for the last eight trading days and it is not surprising that namely there we observed the strongest US dollar growth.




Euro (EUR)

General overview

This week we have received the Germany strong releases from Markit Economics and ZEW and today we expect the positive dynamics to be continued by the IFO Institute. In the light of this, the European single currency can get short-term support.

The Fed pointed out to the downward trend continuation within the main currency pair and the short-term quotations’ growth should be used to build "shorts". The commodity market bearish trend is also able to strengthen demand for the dollar as the commodity assets are denominated into the US currency.

The price is finding the support at 1.2200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2300, the next one is at 1.2400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.2200.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

According to the National Statistics Office report there was the salary increase that exceeded the annualized inflation level. According to the British Retail Consortium this factor with the November sales increase points out to the positive release. The pound can get some support, but this growth should be used for short positions opening amid the increasing demand for the dollar.

The price is finding the support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5760.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.5550 breakthrough down the way to the support levels 1.5500, 1.5440 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of the important macroeconomic statistics the traders will focus their attention on the bond and stock markets dynamics. The Japan and the US negative bond yields show to the bullish sentiment predominance within the dollar. Bulls are returning to the US market share, opening long positions at the attractive levels. Yesterday the Nasdaq index was the growth leader in the US which is a positive factor for the stock market because it indicates the strong demand for the risky assets.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar has grown against the most currencies as the Fed missed its traditional appeal to keep rates at the zero level for "the considerable period of time" and at the end of the two-days meeting kept its benchmark rate unchanged at the level of 0.25% 0 where it is since 2008.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9800, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.  


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Dec 22, 2014 3:42 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar set a fresh eight-year high – the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 89.60. The pair EUR/USD is under pressure amid the US Federal Reserve meeting results despite the slight correction. The US monetary authorities have changed their conservative views into the moderately aggressive ones the monetary policy perspectives that supports demand for the dollar.

The pair GBP/USD was also in the bears’ power. The GfK has published the UK December consumer confidence release. The indicator has shown its lowest level for nine months, signaling about the personal consumption decline in early 2015. The US negative macroeconomic statistics with the Fed positive forecasts supported demand for the dollar during the day.

The Bank of Japan's announced its monetary policy meeting results. The short-term inflation forecasts were downgraded amid the easing energy prices. At the same time, Mr. Kuroda told about the economic positive trends in the long term amid the low oil prices. Japan acutely depends on the black gold and the low oil price will certainly have beneficial effects on the economic growth. The pair USD/JPY has responded with moderate quotations growth on the control monetary policy director’ statement.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We draw our attention to the US real estate sector data. The American consumers have been very confident for the recent months that allows us to count on the secondary market home sales positive release.

The support level of 1.2300 breakthrough was at the low volumes. The pair could fixate under this level and start the corrective movement.

The price is finding the support at 1.2200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2300, the next one is at 1.2400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.2300. After breaking 1.2300 the buyers may go to 1.2400.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The United States can please the traders with the secondary market housing sales positive report that will support the demand for the US dollar. The commodity market negative trend was also able to support the dollar - the CRB Commodity Index decreased by 1.42% at the last week.

The trading within the pound has been going in the downward channel for six week in a row. Last week before reaching the channel lower bound, buyers set the price up that was fallowed by the decrease movement.

The price is finding the support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5760.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal trend and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement target is 1.5760. If the price falls it will get to 1.5550.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The head of the Bank of Japan said that the inflation short-term risks are still preserved amid the oil market bearish trend. In this context, the pair dynamics will be determined by the US and Japan bond markets sentiment.

There was the sharp dollar growth from the support level of 117.00 against the Japanese yen. Buyers broke the resistance level of 119.20 amid the reduced volume and continued the upward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buysignal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement. the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 118.00, 117.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc reached the 2,5 year low against the dollar as a result of the National Bank of Switzerland unexpected decision to set a negative deposit rate to protect the franc.

The Swiss government has revised the economic forecasts towards the GDP forecast decrease for 2015 and lowered to 2.1% from the previous 2.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9800, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9900.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9900.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Dec 23, 2014 6:18 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar managed to strengthen against the major currencies in yesterday's trades. Earlier there was a multidirectional trend on the Forex market. The pair EUR/USD was in demand during the day amid the short positions profit taking. There was any important macroeconomic statistics as a result there was quite a weak trade. The pair broke through the level of 1.2200.

The pair GBP/USD was under pressure during the day. The bond market dynamics again showed the US and the UK negative bond yields expansion that with the cross-rate euro/pound growth encouraged bears for short positions opening.

The world's leading stock markets have entered the final Christmas rally phase that supported the demand for the pair USD/JPY during the day. The United States issued the November secondary market home sales negative release, still it could not encourage bears for short positions opening, pointing out to the lack of demand for "safe" yen from the financial institutions.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

American consumers feel comfortable enough and the November strong retail sales perfectly prove it. We expect the positive data from the durable goods orders. However, it is difficult to count on the exceeding consensus forecast as during the Christmas period Americans are more focused on the retail sector.

Sellers attempted to break through above the resistance level of 1.2300. The short-term test was followed by a small breakthrough with the following price return back beyond the level. Then the pair fell under the support level of 1.2200.

The price is finding the support at 1.2130. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2200, the next one is at 1.2300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target is 1.2130.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National statistics office will publish the UK balance of payments quarterly report. There was the strong imports increase in the third quarter that is a negative factor for the payment balance. The Bank of England gold reserves dynamics confirms this negative picture - in the period from July to September, there was the international reserves decline that often happens during the balance of payments deficit.

Sellers have tried twice to break through below the support level of 1.5550 for the last two weeks. There was a twice rebound from the level. The third test of strength was followed by the level breakthrough.

The price is finding the support at 1.5480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5660.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement target is 1.5760. If the price falls it will get to 1.5400.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan again will please traders with interesting statistics in the first half of the day, the pair dollar/yen will replicate the Nikkei 225 stock index futures dynamics.

Slowly but surely, buyers continue to raise the price up at the low volumes. The upward trend is gradually coming out, as evidenced by the sluggish volatility.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 120.40 breakthrough upwards the way to the support 121.60 is opened.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

Traditionally investors buy the dollar in the absence of new factors and amid the expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in 2015. The US GDP report will be published and according to the forecasts will show the economic growth has exceeded 4% in the second quarter in a row.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9800. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9900.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9900.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Dec 28, 2014 4:40 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

The USD grew against the euro last week. Earlier we could see a US dollar moderate correction - the dollar index basket (USDX) came to the mark of 89.95. The pair EUR/USD moderately increased during the day amid the partial short positions profit taking. The United States published the initial jobless claims that exceeded the traders’ expectations. It is worth noting that the four-week average dropped to the level of 290.25K that is a positive signal for the unemployment release that we received on 9 January. The low liquidity forced traders to refrain from active trading.

The British pound also demonstrated little power - the traders closed the "shorts" on the eve of the Christmas holidays. The pair GBP/USD was able to finish the trading day above the resistance level of 1.5544, but the cable perspectives remain vague - we again observed the UK and the US negative bond yields expansion to the new yearly high that.

The pair USD/JPY is consolidating after the strong growth last week. The bulls took profits on the long positions in Asian trading session. Then during the day there was a flat tendency - traders did not hurry to open positions in the run up to Christmas, despite the fact that the bond market made bullish signals. The US and Japan 10-year bond yields expanded to the level of 195 basis points that is a negative factor for the Japanese yen.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was no important macroeconomic data. The differential expansion between the German bond yields and the US treasuries contributed to the dollar growth. There are no strong changes on the securities market that confirms the side trend.

The support near 1.2200 was broken through, after which buyers twice tried to test the resistance level of 1.2200. After the second retest the price directed downwards.

The consolidation was formed and the price dropped with a gap.

The price is finding the support at 1.2130. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2200, the next one is at 1.2300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.2000 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound is likely to be under pressure again. The negative ten-year bond yields have increased, reaching the fresh yearly high, caused by the negative data and the strong British data and the US GDP release for the third quarter. All these factors point out to the strong bearish signal.

The support is at the level of 1.5550 and for two weeks it has rebounded the sellers upwards. After the fundamental news publication the level was broken through. The support of 1.5550 breakthrough led to the price exit beyond the downward channel boundaries. The pair broke the level of 1.5550 upwards at the end of the last week.

The price is finding the support at 1.5480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5660.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.5400.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar is consolidating against the yen. A serious divergence is formed that indicates the bullish trend weakness. Looking at the overall dollar correlation against many USD majors, we can observe the overall US dollar growth.

We also note that on the most currency instruments the significant levels have already broken through. The pair USD/JPY is consolidating at the level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US showed a fairly positive data, as a result the demand for the US dollar has grown. Against this background, the Swiss franc gave up its positions.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9800. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9900.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9900.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:39 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 91.15. During the day the pair EUR/USD tested the 19th figure amid the “black gold” sales. The Brent oil fell to the mark of 56.02 that is able to enhance the Eurozone deflationary threat development. In the light of this traders got rid of the euro.

The negative UK PMI manufacturing sector sent the pair GBP/USD to knockout. In December the indicator fell to the mark of 52.5% that has been the lowest level since June 2013. This release points out to the industrial production weak data that in turn has a negative impact on the final 4th quarter GDP figures. After the release traders actively sold the British pound.

The USD/JPY bulls opened long positions, considering the current levels attractive for their investment portfolios. Even the negative the ISM manufacturing release could not spoil their mood. In December the indicator decreased to 55.5% that is the lowest level for the last 5 months. It should also be noted that the total value fell below the annual average that indicates the strong business activity decline in the manufacturing sector. Against this background, bears opened short positions.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair EUR/GBP strong quotations growth on Friday should attract the bulls’ attention. However, the level of 1.2000 is a strong resistance and its growth potential will be limited by this area.

The traders’ attention will be focused on the Germany inflation data.

The current week opened with a gap according to this instrument. The gap was formed at the round level of 1.2000 that is quite strong level for major market participants.

The price is finding the support at 1.1850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1950, the next one is at 1.2000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.2000.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Center of Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics will publish the construction sector business optimism release. According to the BBA, the mortgage lending decline in November indicates the data within the forecasted medians. After the quotations decrease to 52nd figure we can expect some technical rebound.

The pound was about 250 points towards the downward trend. There was the intermediate support level breakthrough of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.5100 testing soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders will focus their attention on the stock market dynamics amid the absence of Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics publication. The Tokyo Stock Exchange began its work after 4-day weekend and we can expect the bearish sentiment prevalence.

Last trading week the US stock market finished in the negative area and today we can expect the negative dynamics continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 120.40 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 121.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc reduced amid the dollar growth. In general, the dollar index rose by 12.3% since the beginning of the year becoming the absolute leader among the 10 currencies of the most economically developed countries. Ii is the best result for the last decade.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0030, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0100.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:34 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

Rumors that Greece may exit the euro zone sent the European single currency to test the eight- year minimum. The German Chancellor Angela Merkel in an interview with German media said that she considered possible Greece exit from the euro zone. The EUR/USD quotes reached the level of 1.1861 at the moment after this news announcment. Setting a new maximum for the last eight years, the euro/dollar demonstrated the short-term growth. Nevertheless, the pair continues to test the level of 1.1863.

The pair GBP/USD started the trading week with a gap at the level of 1.5245. After the UK construction sector PMI report bears tried to organize an attack against the British pound. We have not seen the quotations reduction below the level of 1.5200. The UK and the US 10- year negative differential bond yields have been declining for two consecutive trading days that is a deterrent for the bearish sentiment strengthening.

Sales on the stock markets in Tokyo and New York encouraged bears to open short positions within the pair USD/JPY. There was no important macroeconomic statistics this day and traders focused their attention exclusively on the stock market dynamics. It should be noted that the Nasdaq index that is a demand barometer for risky assets, on Monday it declined less than their main colleagues, indicating the final phase of the bearish trend in the US stock market.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Rumors that Greece may exit the Eurozone as well as the German inflationary pressure compression are definitely negative factors, but at this time the euro is at the very low levels. The US and the Germany 10-year bond yields continued to decline, signaling the technical correction development.

The euro/dollar opened the market with a gap. There was an upward correction from the level of 1.1920 that is not supported by the trade volumes. The pair was trading multidirectional and the resistance level of 1.1950 was unsuccessful.

The price is finding the support at 1.1850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1950, the next one is at 1.2000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.2000. The strong resistance level 1.200 testing will be followed by the euro decrease.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Markit Economics will publish the third and final UK release. At this time we will get business optimism data in the service sector. We expect the data at the level of consensus forecast that will give some support to the pound. The US ISM service sector release can also reach the level of the forecasted medians.

The gap was not closed. There were no changes in the price volatility. The trade is below the resistance at the level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We expect the consolidation in the range 1.5300-1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

From the the US non-productive sphere ISM index we can expect a reduction compared to the previous month. The manufacturing index has already shown a decline below the annual average, next is the business activity decline in the services sector. We can also expect the downward dynamics continuation on the US and Japan stock markets.

From the level of 120.40 the downward correction to the upward trend line of 118.00 was formed.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 119.20, 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar remains positive against the European currencies amid expectations that the growing divergence in economic growth rates and monetary policy between Europe and the United States in the coming year will continue to support the US currency despite the fact that the Federal Reserve made it clear that it would not rush to increase rates at least until the end of April.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0030, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0100.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Jan 07, 2015 3:10 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a multidirectional movement the other day. Most of the day the pair EUR/USD was under pressure amid the lower energy prices. Against this background, the German 10- year bond yields again set a fresh historic low. However, after the services sector ISM negative release bulls started to increase long positions. In December, the non-manufacturing sector business climate index fell to the level of 56.2, indicating the economic growth slowdown.

The pair GBP/USD once again came under a sales wave after the Markit Economics publication. The service sector PMI report came out worse than traders had expected, the average quarterly value was the lowest in 2014. This factor, along with the trade and balance of payments weak data indicates the economic growth slowdown for the 4th quarter in the UK.

The pair USD/JPY pair is in the bulls’ power. They took the initiative from the bears. Earlier the US weak macroeconomic statistics accelerated the US stock market sales that caused demand for safe assets - the Japanese yen. It should also be noted the US and Japan 10-year bond yields reduction that is a bearish signal.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the euro area inflation. The Spain and Germany data showed the inflationary pressure compression the last month of 2014. In recent months there was a large-scale oil contracts sale that puts pressure on the CPI.

Buyers have not closed the gap formed at the beginning of the trading week. Currently, two gaps remain closed according to this trading instrument.

The price is finding the support at 1.1770. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1770 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US moderately negative macroeconomic statistics will allow the British pound to take a breath. The oil prices decline caused the UK and the US bond yields increase, but the negative 10-year bond yields continued to fall. However, it is still premature to talk about the full reversal.

Now the trade within the GBP is towards the downward channel, its upper bound is at the level of 1.5200 and it will be broken through upwards in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5200 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support levels of 1.5100 and 1.5015.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The United States published the ISM manufacturing and service sector negative releases that would certainly be reflected in the 4th quarter GDP. We can also expect the ADP data output and the trade balance slightly worse than the forecasted medians. At the beginning of the new year we saw the US and Japan 10-year bond yields sharp reduction. It was 169 pp on January 6.

At the increasing volume sellers tried to break through below the upward trend line of 119.20 that is a key support. The trend line 118.00 testing has not led to the breakthrough and the pair grew above the level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The trend is an up side. The upward bounce potential target are 120.40, 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc remains in the range against the dollar. The factory orders report for November, published on Tuesday, showed the orders decline by 0.7% that is worse than the average analyst forecast by 0.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0200.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0200.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Jan 08, 2015 3:37 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar suspended to strengthen against its major. During the day the EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the negative euro area inflation release. According to the preliminary data the December CPI was in the negative area at the year-on- year level of 0.2%. The market received the first alarm about the deflationary threat growth. The pair euro/dollar reached the mark of 1.1801, but after the Fed's minutes publication traders cut short positions that caused a technical rebound. It should be noted that the FOMC representatives expectations, regarding inflation and employment remain the same - the first indicator will decline in the short term, while the second one shows a steady growth. It was also noted that the monetary regulator expects a higher dollar rate in 2015. The pair slightly corrected at the end of the day.

Yesterday the Brent oil fell to the 50th figure that encouraged bears to open short positions within the pair GBP/USD. The UK 10-year bond yields fell to the 2-year low, indicating the UK inflation expectations strong decline. The pair showed a slight correction at the yesterday trades.

After two days of sales bulls rushed to the market, opening "longs" at the attractive levels. The ADP positive employment release encouraged traders to open long positions - according to the agency the number of employees increased by 241 thousand in the private sector in December that exceeded the traders’ expectations and gives hope to the Non-Farm data output within the forecasted medians.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Germany will publish the industry orders data. In November the PMI manufacturing sector leading indicator fell below 50%, to its lowest level since June 2013, indicating the weak data output.

The pair EUR/USD tested the support level of 1.1770 and is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.1850.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1850 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the levels of support 1.1770 and 1.1690.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound slightly corrected. Earlier the pound was under pressure amid the rising dollar and the UK weak macroeconomic statistics.

The Bank of England will announce its decision on interest rates and bond buyback program. It is expected that the rate will remain at the level of 0.5% and the program will be in the amount of 375 pounds.

We observe the downward trend volatility decrease within the pair GBP/USD. However, we see the volumes growth.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5015 soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders will focus their attention on the US and Japan stock markets dynamics. It is premature to talk about the full corrective movement completion in the US stock market - it is necessary to wait for the confirming signals, for example, the trading day at the level of 2050 according the S & P500 index. The US 2-year Treasury bond yields over the last 10 days decreased by 10 points that is a bullish signal for the stock market.

The pair USD/JPY returned above the upward trend line of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 120.40 and the next one is at 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar/franc overcame the second resistance level of 1.0100 and continues the upward movement. Then it slightly corrected.

On Friday the US Labor Department will publish the government employment report that can show the new job-creating growth for 228,000 people, according to the forecasts, the unemployment rate decreased to the 6,5 year minimum by 5.7%.

About the middle of the Tuesday American session within the given pair the bullish sentiment is dominated. The exchange rate found the strong support around the level of 1.0100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0270.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:43 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has suspended its winning streak. The pair EUR/USD corrected the Germany industry orders release. In November the indicator declined by 2.4%, indicating the leading euro-zone economy industrial production decline. Against this background, at the moment the pair euro/dollar reached the mark of 1.1753, after which we observed the technical rebound.

The pair GBP/USD showed a decline to the level of 1.5033 where the bears took profits on the short positions. At the end of the week the pair grew up. The Bank of England left unchanged monetary policy. However, traders did not expect any changes. It is also worth noting that many financial institutions begin to doubt that the monetary control will raise interest rates this year.

Strong growth in the US stock market encouraged the bears for long positions opening within the pair USD/JPY. We received a jobless claims that was worse than traders had expected, nevertheless the data showed a decline compared to the previous period. The Nasdaq index was the growth leader on the US stock market, indicating strong demand for risky assets.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was the euro the pros and cons balancing as a result of producer prices (PPI) Eurozone decrease in November, also the second consecutive month, -0.3% m/m, -1.6% y/y after -0.3% m/m - 1.3% y/y, and the European Commission data about the sentiment in the European business showed improvement in the consumer confidence and the sentiment in the services sector, nevertheless the industrial sector confidence has weakened.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward trend line 1.1850 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support levels 1.1770, 1.1690 return.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK will publish the industrial production release. In November the CBI reported the industrial orders increase that is a positive factor for the industrial production. The 4th quarter PMI Manufacturing Index was at the level of 53.3% and against this background we can expect the data at the level of the forecasted medians that will support the British pound.

The pound shows a low volatility. For a long time the price have been consolidating below the round resistance level of 1.5100 after the downward channel exit. Then the price broke upwards the resistance level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5200 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.5015.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US positive macroeconomic statistics will strengthen not only demand for the US dollar (USDX), but also will support the US stock market. The employment growth indicates the possible GDP growth in the 4th quarter near 4% that is a positive factor for the stock market.

The trade is continued towards the trend line of 118.00. As long as the trend line is not broken through, the potential for the further growth is maintained.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The correction is observed. Nevertheless, we believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 120.40 and the next one is at 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US dollar keeps a positive attitude against the European currencies after the data output that indicate the continuing US labor market recovery that in its turn increases the likelihood of raising interest rates by the Fed in a short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0270.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:16 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The last week end was rich with macroeconomic statistics. We got two releases from Germany - industrial production and trade balance releases for November. Both reports came out negative, but traders ignored the data and took a wait before the US labor market release. The nonfarm payrolls increased by 252 thousand in December in line with our forecast. The overall unemployment rate fell down to 5.6%, dropping to its lowest level since June 2008. Against this background, we have observed the pair EUR/USD sales, but the rate was not able to fall below the minimum Thursday values and after reaching the level of 1.1765 traders took profits on the short positions. The pair grew again after a slight decrease yesterday.

Within the pair GBP/USD bears also took profits on the short positions that supported demand for the British pound. We should also point out to the UK positive trade balance release for November that showed the negative balance reduction.

Despite the positive US labor market statistics bulls do not hurry to open long positions in the stock market, but on the contrary, they took profits on the "longs". The correction in the stock markets put some pressure on the pair USD/JPY.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Traders ignored the US strong labor market macroeconomic statistics and showed the lack of desire to hold short positions. On the other hand, the "black gold" prices decline supports the US dollar. The German 10-year bond yields set a fresh historic low, while the US bond yields did not update the October lows of 2014.

The second half of the last week was held in the framework of upward correction within the euro/dollar. This correction continued yesterday after a slight falling.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 1.1850. If the price falls it will get to 1.1770.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We do not expect the US interesting macroeconomic releases. The UK CPI release for December will be published that will show the inflationary pressure compression.

From the level of 1.5100 we could see the pound corrective growth against US dollar. The formed correction takes place amid the increased volumes. The current price is trading below the resistance level of 1.5200, to which buyers came towards the upward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the level of 1.5200 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance level of 1.5300 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bullish trend continuation in the US stock market will maintain demand for the dollar and the Japanese corporate bonds. The Friday quotations decrease on the NYSE should be considered as a technical correction, but not as a bearish reversal. The strong employment releases point out to the strong economic growth in the 4th quarter that will support the demand for shares before the Fed meeting which will take place on January 28.

Sellers confidently broke through the upward trend line of 119.20. The trend line breakthrough was amid the increased volume and enabled sellers to reverse the medium-term bullish trend downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 117.00, 115.80.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc continues to become cheaper after the euro. Despite the slight correction the dollar keeps a positive attitude against the European currencies after the data publication, indicating the US labor market recovery continuation that in turn increases the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0270.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Jan 13, 2015 3:47 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 91.96. It is worth noting that the trading day was very poor with important macroeconomic statistics and in this regard, traders focused on the commodity market dynamics. The Brent and the WTI oil once again demonstrated their weakness at the beginning of the week that supported demand for the dollar in the first half of the day. But then traders decided to take profits and we saw a rebound within some major currency pairs.

The euro remains under the speculation pressure that the European Central Bank can implement quantitative easing in the course of the next meeting on January 22. During the weekend, the head of Italy's central bank warned that the euro zone was threatened by the deflation risk and said that the best way to deal with the looming threat was the government bonds purchase.

On Tuesday the dollar fell to the three-week low against the yen as concerns over the continuing fall in oil prices reinforce fears about its impact on global growth and inflation, boosting demand for refuge.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

In the absence of important macroeconomic statistics traders shall focus their attention on the commodity market dynamics. Namely the bearish oil trend strengthening pushed the eurozone into a deflation and now all traders are closely monitoring the "black gold" quotes. The nearest Brent strong support level is at the mark of 47.46. We believe bears will continue to build up short positions on the short-term euro quotations growth.

The corrective euro growth against the US dollar stopped near the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.1850. The trade towards the channel has been lasting the fifth week in a row.

The trade volumes are in the reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the falling will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1690.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National statistics office shall report about the December inflation. Traditionally, we expect the retail prices growth amid the increasing consumer activity during the Christmas period. Reducing unemployment and wage growth also indicates the personal consumption increase that boosts the CPI growth.

The pound is correcting against the US dollar amid the low volatility and low volumes. As a result correction moves towards the upward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5200 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan will publish the payment balance. In November the Bank of Japan reported the foreign exchange reserves increase that indicates the surplus growth. Also this month there was a strong inflow of foreign investment into the stock market that also points to the positive data output.

After the upper trend line 119.20 break the two downward channels on the daily chart were formed.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 118.00, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 117.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar/franc will trade with a tendency to decrease, being under the demand pressure for the franc within the falling pairs AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and CAD/CHF, as a result of oil prices falling a demand for commodity currencies have declined.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0270.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:46 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was in demand against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 92.27. During the day the pair EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the "black gold" prices falling. During the day the Brent oil set a fresh low that supported a demand for the dollar.

The UK inflation release disappointed traders - the December CPI fell down to 0.5% in annual terms that is the lowest level since May 2000. The first inflationary pressure compression is caused by the lower oil price. As a result the pair GBP/USD showed a decline to the mark of 1.5076 after which traders took profits and we saw a technical rebound.

On Tuesday the pair USD/JPY took a ride on a roller coaster. At the beginning of the trading day Japan released the November positive payment balance that encouraged bears for short positions opening. At the moment the price fell to the mark of 117.75 where the bulls began to form "longs". The growth in the Tokyo stock market supported a demand for the US dollar and during the European session 118.84. However, after the US stock market sales, the pair dollar/yen was able to update the local lows.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone shall publish the November industrial production release. The currency bloc leading economies (France and Germany) have already reported about the manufacturing sector slowdown. The Macroeconomic Research Center Markit Economics recorded the Manufacturing PMI index decrease to the level of 50.1% that is the lowest level since June 2013. Now we can expect the data worse than the consensus forecast that will put pressure on the euro.

The continued price consolidation near 1.1850 was the signal for the bearish trend continuation. The prices rebound fell down to the low near 1.1770 last week. We observe here a consolidation. The trade volumes are in a decrease zone.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1850 soon. The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.1690



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We can expect the negative comments about the UK inflation in the short term. Inflation in the United Kingdom is significantly deviated from the target rate of 2% and now the head of the Bank of England will have to explain it to the Minister of Finance.

Buyers came to the level of 1.5200 towards the upward channel. The level testing was followed by the rebound with the following channel lower bound 1.5100 breakthrough. The pair increased from this level and broke through the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300. We do not exclude the falls to 1.5015.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US retail sales release is able to demonstrate growth and exit within the consensus. The hourly wages growth by 0.2% in November can spur demand in the Christmas period. The consumer confidence positive releases from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan confirmed the positive trend.

There was a strong support level of 117.00 breakthrough. Due to the formed breakthrough bears strengthened their positions and continued the trade towards the downward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 115.80.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc fell against the dollar. The dollar index reached almost the 10year peak on speculations that the Federal Reserve will raise its key rate this year.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0270.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:57 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was trading different directed against its main competitors. During the day the EUR/USD showed a high volatility. The EU court issued a verdict on the European Stability Mechanism legality that caused the euro sales as the ECB can now safely run the QE program.

During the day the pair GBP/USD enjoyed moderate demand amid the strong EUR/GBP cross-rate reduction as well as the US weak statistics. The strong bearish sentiment within the single European currency put pressure not only on the euro/dollar, but also on the euro/pound cross-rate that in its turn supported the demand for the British pound. The December retail sector sales rate decreased by 0.9%, the November report was also revised towards reduction.

The pair USD/JPY showed the sales decline amid the Tokyo stock exchange sales, but bulls returned to the market and began to open long positions. The US retail sales negative report sent the pair dollar/yen to 116.30.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair EUR/USD set a new multi-year low, reaching the level of 1.1590 after the European Court advisor’s announcement that the quantitative easing program can be carried out to the full extent.

Investors' attention is drawn to the Germany's GDP data publication for 2014. The Germany's GDP growth was 1.5% in 2014. In Germany consumer activity increased by 1.1% in 2014, but export volumes increased by 3.7%.

The pair EUR/USD was consolidating at the support level of 1.1770. Then it fell and broke the support levels of 1.1770 and 1.1690 and decreased to the level of 1.1590.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1590, the next one is at 1.1520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1690, the next one is at 1.1770.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The seller need to break below 1.1590 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.1520 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound can not demonstrate its power against its US counterpart.

The United States will publish the producer price index release, from which it is difficult to expect surprises due to strong commodity market sales that will support the pound.

The EUR/GBP quotations growth amid the Germany negative macroeconomic statistics will also support the British pound.

The pair GBP/USD broke through but could not fixed above the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair may go to 1.5100 soon. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5300, 1.5400.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

On the one hand, the US negative macroeconomic statistics will support the Japanese yen. On the other hand, the current levels already look attractive for opening long positions, based on the long-term upward trend continuation.

The pair USD/JPY rebounded from the strong resistance level of 118.00 downwards. The pair broke through the support level of 117.00.

The price is finding the first support at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 115.80 may lead to a price consolidation.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:32 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished last week at the mark of 92.65, setting a new high for the last 11 years. The pair EUR/USD was again under attack, despite the US inflation and industrial production negative macroeconomic statistics. Nevertheless we see a slight correction on the pair. Disregard for weak reports indicates the strong bearish sentiment for the major currency pairs.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was consolidating. Earlier it fell by 0.24% - the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate decrease deterred the British pound decrease. This day Great Britain did not please traders with macroeconomic statistics and the downward trend was amid the US dollar growth along the entire market.

Strong growth in the US stock market encouraged bulls to short. The stock market reacted positively to the inflationary pressure compression - low inflation expands the US Federal Reserve soft monetary policy cycle that has traditionally been a bullish factor for the stock market. The US 2-year bond yields which reflect expectations for the Fed rates and for the last three weeks have been declining and reached the level of 0.48% that confirms the positive trend for the stock market.




Euro (EUR)

General overview

Of course, the main event of the trading week will be the euro zone monetary authorities meeting on Thursday January 22. Everybody cares only the one question - the ECB incentive program options. As traders ignore the US weak inflation data, then we are dealing with the strong bearish trend and on the short-term quotations growth it is necessary to build up short positions.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1590, the next one is at 1.1520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1690, the next one is at 1.1770.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1690 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target are the support levels of 1.1520, 1.1400.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Despite the strong dollar bullish trend the British pound failed to update the current month minimum values, indicating the investors’ reluctance to get rid of the "cable". The commodity market stabilization deprives the US dollar support while the UK and the US negative bond yields reduction, on the other hand adds dividends to the British pound. An additional factor for the bulls is the negative expectations for the euro that increases pressure on the cross-rate EUR/GBP which in its turn supports demand for the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.3665. The downward bounce potential target is 1.5015.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of Japan important macroeconomic statistics publication as well as the bank holiday in the United States, traders will focus their attention on the trades’ dynamics in the Tokyo stock exchange. The US inflation Friday's release encouraged bulls to long, as a result we have seen all three major indices steady growth. We expect demand for Japanese corporate bonds which will also support the USD/JPY bulls.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 118.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The liquidity volume will continue to be small after the Swiss National Bank canceled the lower limit for the euro/franc on Thursday that is 1.20, it lowered interest rates on deposits for demand by 0.5% to -0.75%.

The demand for the franc puts pressure on the pair against other major currencies. Its potential decrease is constrained by its sales at the low levels, the positive market’s attitude to the dollar, Switzerland negative interest rates and the likelihood of intervention by the Swiss National Bank.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8740, the next one is at 0.8540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8940, the next one is at 0.9150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair is consolidating now. We advise to short with the first target - 0.8540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.8340



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:25 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a mixed sentiment and tendency yesterday. The ZEW Institute published the Germany business environment positive release, still we did not see a strong demand for the euro. At the moment quotations reached the level of 1.1675 after which there was a technical rebound, indicating the traders’ reluctance to open long positions.

On the contrary, the pair GBP/USD showed a strong growth. However, the "cable" reached the level of 1.5060 amid the lower energy prices. But then, bears decided to take profits on short positions which allowed the pound to regain some lost ground. Then the pair fell again.

The pair USD/JPY is in a steady demand. The moderate oil prices decline that we see from the beginning of the trading week supports the dollar as the commodity assets prices denominated in the US dollar. Some traders believe that the Bank of Japan can declare the incentive program increase and against this background "longs" are more preferable.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ZEW institute Germany business climate positive release shows the strong euro sellers presence. This factor confirms the negative expectations for the pair. It is now extremely dangerous to open long positions. Today on January 22 the ECB will announce the monetary policy meeting results.

The downward trend moved within a lateral corridor near the levels of 1.1650 - 1.1540. But at the same time, the trade is still towards the downward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1520, the next one is at 1.1400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1590, the next one is at 1.1690.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1520 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.1400, 1.1300.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England monetary policy last meeting minutes is in the center of traders’ attention. On the one hand, the UK inflationary pressure compression because of the lower hydrocarbon prices indicates the monetary authorities negative expectations in the short term. On the other hand, the unemployment reduction and the wage growth will increase private consumption in the long term that will spur the CPI growth.

Having not reached the support level of 1.5015, the pound turned upwards towards the correction and rose to the level of 1.5200. The pair fell from this level and tested the support level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5300, 1.5400.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The next Japanese monetary regulator meeting shall not support the national currency. The recent key macroeconomic indicators do not indicate the negative trend breakthrough. Industrial production continues to show its weakness.

The bulls’ advantage over bears was lost by the price return into the downward channel. Moreover, sellers turned back the price beyond the support level of 118.00.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 115.80 soon.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US dollar traded rather moderately against the Swiss franc on speculations that the Fed was going to raise interest rates while other major central banks are planning to implement stimulating measures for economic growth and inflation recovery.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8740, the next one is at 0.8540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8940, the next one is at 0.9150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.8540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.8340.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:59 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued to rise against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 93.04. The traders’ attention was focused on the ECB meeting. The pair EUR/USD sharply fell.

On Wednesday the pound was under attack after the MPC last meeting minutes publication. The monetary regulator pointed out to the CPI decrease continuation to zero in the 1st quarter. The number of "hawks" reduced to zero in the Bank of England – McCafferty and Weale no longer vote for the interest rates increase. The Central Bank economists also reported the downside risks growth for the Eurozone economy which will act as a deterrent for the UK economic growth.

Yesterday the pair USD/JPY demonstrated its high volatility. And it is not surprising –the Bank of Japan announced the monetary policy meeting results. Monetary authorities lowered the inflation forecast and the GDP for the fiscal year of 2015. The incentive program also has not undergone any revision, despite the expectations of volume incentives increase by some Wall Street economists.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ECB announced its decision about the stimulating measures. They launched the QE program. The European Central Bank shall begin to buy the secondary market assets worth up to 60 billion euros a month in March 2015, and it will continue to improve the stability of inflation or to the end of September 2016.

The sixth week in a row the euro is declining against the US dollar towards the downward channel. Buyers tried to break through the channel upper bound of 1.1590 – but this attempt was unsuccessful. The pair fell and broke the support levels of 1.1520 and 1.1400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1300, 1.1170.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The ECB meeting results announcement is in the center of traders’ attention. Last year when the Eurozone monetary authorities declared the monetary policy easing- the British pound declined after its European counterparts.

The current price was trading within the rectangle levels of 1.5200 - 1.5050. Its rebound from the resistance level of 1.5200 enabled sellers to come up to the support level of 1.5100. This support was broken down and the support level of 1.5015 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5015, it may consolidate in the short term. Then the pair can grow. The potential growth target is 1.5200.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan negative forecasts for the fiscal year of 2015 call into question the further Japanese yen growth. Today in the absence of Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics publication traders will focus their attention on the global stock market dynamics.

After the prices rebound downwards below the support level of 118.00 there was a new downward channel formed. The trade volumes are in the decrease zone. Now the pair is trading above the level of 118.00.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The upward correction potential target is 119.20. If the price falls it will get to 117.00, 115.80.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

According to the ZEW the attitude towards the franc declined amid the falling Switzerland economic sentiment index for January - Credit Suisse (-4.9 to -10.8 from December). Potential pair reduction is also constrained by the positive market attitude towards the dollar, by the Switzerland negative interest rates and the intervention threat by the Swiss National Bank with the franc sales.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8540, the next one is at 0.8340. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8740, the next one is at 0.8940.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.8540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.8340.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Jan 25, 2015 2:06 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The main last week event was the ECB's monetary policy meeting results announcement. There was only one question on the agenda - what the amount of incentives would be? During the week there were various rumors - the numbers ranged from 500 billion euro to $ 1 trillion euro. Those traders who expected the maximum level turned out to be right.

The Eurozone monetary regulator decided to purchase assets in the amount of 60 billion euro starting with this year March. Thus, the ECB balance will be increased by 1.08 trillion euro till September 1, 2016. Financial markets have reacted to the news as it was forecasted: the euro, the pound and the Japanese yen came under a sales wave. Stock markets, on the contrary, reacted positively to the QE introduction by the Eurozone monetary authorities.

Last week till its decline the pound was supported by the unexpectedly strong data and finally grew. The UK retail sales rose up by 0.4% m / m in December 2014 while analysts forecasted a decline by 0.6%. The renewed wages growth has a positive impact on consumer sentiment and spending that helps to offset the negative impact on the economy from the euro zone part which is experiencing deflation and growth slowdown.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ECB announced all key milestones and now we can expect the moderate euro quotations decline before the Federal Reserve meeting on January 28. The Eurozone manufacturing sector business activity index rose to the level of 51 in January compared to 50.6 in December. These data coincided with economists' forecasts.

The rebound from the upper channel bound of 1.1590 was on the increased volume and enabled sellers to break through the support levels of 1.1520, 1.1400 and 1.1300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1040 and 1.0925 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

According to the data released by the UK National Statistics Office, the retail sales volume including the fuel costs increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis in December, compared with a growth by 1.6% recorded in November. After the ECB's decision to launch the QE from March 1 there was a strong demand for the US dollar.

Sellers have strengthened the downward trend, breaking through and consolidating below the strong support level of 1.5015.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4920, 1.4800.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Today Japan and the United States will not please traders with interesting macroeconomic releases and in this regard, all traders’ attention will be focused on the stock markets dynamics. The QE program launching by the European Central Bank supported demand for risky assets.

The upward correction is still preserved after rebound from the support near 115.80 with this instrument. Before reaching the downward channel upper bound of 119.20, the price stopped above 118.00, but could not fixate there and fell below.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect a growth towards 119.20 further on we expect the fall to 115.80.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Jan 26, 2015 6:30 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar stopped its winning streak. Earlier the index dollar basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.00. The ECB large-scale incentives program led to the euro considerable sales and after the German manufacturing sector business climate negative release the bearish EUR/USD trend has accelerated. The Greece elections results also had a negative impact on the euro exchange rate. Nevertheless the pair slightly increased on Monday.

The pair GBP/USD was not able to get support from the UK sudden strong retail sales release. The retail sales rose by 0.4% in December while the consensus forecast predicted its growth by 0.6%. The average earnings growth and the unemployment reduction have a positive impact on the UK consumers. However, despite this positive factor - the British pound was hardly able to demonstrate its growth near the resistance level of 1.5100 which indicates the strong sellers’ presence that holds back the bulls’ onslaught.

After the three days growth in the world's leading stock markets bulls took profits on the long positions that supported demand for the "safe haven" yen. It should also be noted that there was demand for the US high-tech assets which is a positive factor for the stock market.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The new trading week began with a gap fallowed by a slight correction. The decrease was amid the parliamentary elections were held on Sunday in Greece. The Athens radical policy change is able to cause severe volatility and hurt the euro. In the first half of the day the traders ‘attention will be focused on the Germany business climate publication from the IFO institute.

There was the downward channel lower bound breakthrough near 1.1400. The fact that the price left the channel limits, where it has been for six weeks, indicates the bearish trend strengthening. The pair tested the level of 1.1170 and rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support levels of 1.1170, 1.1040.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders ‘disregard towards the UK retail sales positive release points out to the strong bearish trend. Despite the fact that quarterly sales showed maximum growth over the past 12 years - the British pound was hardly able to consolidate near the resistance level of 1.5100.

There was the level breakthrough of 1.5100 which currently stands as the strong resistance. It is worth noting that the level breakthrough of 1.5100 was amid the low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first targets are the levels of 1.5200 and 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The December Japan trade balance shall not support bears very much. The Japanese yen devaluation and the seasonal factor indicate the trade deficit reduction. However, the industrial production weakness cannot allow us to rely on the strong export growth. In this regard, the data can be expected at the level of consensus forecast.

There was the resistance level of 118.00 breakthrough which is now followed by the growing prices.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 119.20. Having tested the first target the price might go downwards to 117.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Jan 27, 2015 5:49 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD opened the trading week with a gap downwards amid the Greece news about the Radical Left Coalition victory. But then traders quickly leveled the gap and the European trades have already started from a blank slate. Traders decided to take profits on the short positions as the single European currency was at the 11-year low. The pair rose from this level.

GBP/USD traders closed decided to take profit as well. Traders reacted very emotionally to the WSJ interview by the Bank of England Forbes representative who pointed out the need to tighten monetary policy. Against this background, bulls were able to break through the strong resistance level of 1.5100 and to move the price to the level of 1.5200 where it stabilized.

The December Japan positive trade balance release failed to provide a firm support for the Japanese yen - negative balance amounted to 660.7 billion yen in December that came out better than traders had expected. At the moment the pair USD/JPY reached the level of 117.28, then bulls returned to the market and began to build up long positions at the attractive levels. Confident demand on the world's leading stock markets has supported bulls. Nevertheless, the pair could not fixate above the level of 118.00.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We expect the pair EUR/GBP growth amid the UK 4th quarter weak GDP report which in turn will have a positive impact on the pair euro/dollar. While the US durable goods orders release can come out worse than the forecasted medians.

We should not rely on the euro strong growth in terms of deflation and increased political risks that are coming from Greece.

The mark of 1.1170 was the starting point for the upward correction which is not supported by the trade volumes now.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.1520. Having tested this target the price might go downwards to 1.1300.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

All traders’ attention will be focused on the 4th quarter UK GDP release. On the one hand, the manufacturing and service sector slowdown points out to the weak report. On the other hand, the average earnings growth and the unemployment reduction spurred private consumption. The Bank of England economists expect growth by 0.6%.

Buyers correct the price upwards amid the lower volumes. There is the strong resistance level of 1.5100 breakthrough and the level of 1.5200 testing amid the formed correction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.5200 test may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5015, 1.4920.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders shall focus their attention on the stock markets dynamics amid the absence of Japan interesting macroeconomic releases. Yesterday the US, Asian and the European equity were steadily growing, indicating demand for risky assets.

The flat within a rectangular corridor continues. The price is trading around the level of 118.00 for the two last weeks.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

There are the low trading volumes. The strong support level 117.00 test could be followed by a consolidation.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:23 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar lost some ground against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.20. The pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US durable goods orders negative macroeconomic statistics. The sales declined by 3.4% in December while the market expected growth by 0.6%. We should mention the fact that traders ignored the US strong consumer confidence and new home sales data. Apparently, traders consider that the euro is strongly oversold and liquidated short positions.

The UK weak GDP data for the 4th quarter could not encourage bears to open the large number of short positions. The final indicator was 0.5% that is slightly below the traders’ expectations. The manufacturing sector and the service sector weakness have had a significant negative impact on the UK economic growth.

The pair USD/JPY was under pressure amid the profit-taking on global stock markets long positions. However, after the US positive new buildings sales and consumer confidence releases we saw steady demand for the US dollar. It is worth noting the Conference Board report which showed the private consumption growth up to the level of 102.9 p. in January. Nevertheless the pair slightly fell at the end of the trades, but did not exit the range.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Undoubtedly, this week the key event is the US Federal Reserve meeting. The US 10-year bond yields are at the level of 1.81%, indicating the inflation reduction in the short term.

The euro is consolidating after it was actively correcting against the US dollar, rebounding from the support level of 1.1170. The formed price increase is not supported by the trade volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1400 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support levels of 1.1300, 1.1170.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Traders ignored the UK weak economic growth release which jeopardizes the bearish trend development. In this regard, the statements made by the Fed last night will determine the pair GBP/USD future dynamics.

The support level of 1.5015 stopped the pound downward trend. The formed correction will enable buyers to raise the price to the daily resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.5200 breakthrough upward the way to the support 1.5300 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Quotations decline below the level of 118.00 should be used to build up long positions. The commodity market sales with the relatively low wages growth rate in 2014 indicate the inflationary pressure compression in the United States for the first quarter of this year.

Having not reached the level of 119.20, the correctional price growth stopped above the level of 118.00, going to a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 119.20. If the price falls it will get to 115.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:42 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was the central event of the week - the US Federal Reserve announced the monetary policy meeting results. In anticipation of this event the major pairs consolidated as traders refrained from active trading. The monetary regulator pointed out to the fact that we should not expect the first rate hike within the federal funds till June. The short-term inflation forecasts have been revised downwards, it was noted the labor market rapid recovery. The FOMC representatives consider the energy prices decrease as a favorable factor for the household expenditure increase that will maintain high economic growth. It should also be noted that the decision to leave interest rates unchanged was unanimous while the FOMC three representatives voted for monetary policy tightening at the meeting in December 2014.

Despite the Fed conservative rhetoric, traders were in no hurry to liquidate long positions within the US dollar. The dollar significantly increased only against the pound.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

On the one hand, the Fed has kept the promise of "patience" in relation to the rates increase. This factor is negative for the US dollar. On the other hand, the euro area inflation expectations are much worse than the UK ones. The main event of the day will be the Germany consumer price index data release.

Buyers reached the level of 1.1400 amid the reduced volume.

The price consolidation near the resistance level of 1.1300 is more likely to serve as a signal for the upward correction reversal.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1170 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Today the UK will not please traders with the positive data and in this regard we can expect the side trend continuation during the day. The fundamental background remains mixed - the FOMC negative pigeon rhetoric for the dollar and the Brent inability to consolidate above the psychological level of $ 50 put pressure on the British pound.

Two daily correctional pound growth was stopped by the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.5200. The upper bound testing resulted led to the continued consolidation followed by the decrease under the level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5015 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4920.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders shall focus their attention on the stock market dynamics amid the Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics. The Fed “patience” lowered the two-year Treasury bond yields below 0.5% and now we can expect the upward trend development.

Traders have been testing the strong resistance level of 118.00 for five consecutive days. The short-term breaks are followed by the constant price rebounds downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 118.00 breakthrough down the way to the supports 117.00, 115.80 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:17 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar looked quite cheerful amid its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.82. The pair EUR/USD has enjoyed moderate demand despite the Eurozone negative statistics. The Germany CPI release pointed out that the Old World largest economy came into deflation. This report indicates that we should not expect pleasant surprises on the Eurozone CPI tomorrow. At the moment the quotes reached the level of 1.1367 after which there was a technical rebound.

After the US positive jobless claims release - bears made a powerful attack on the pair GBP/USD. The previous week figure exceeded the traders’ expectations by 43 thousand that allows to count on the labor market positive data release at the beginning of the week. The CRB commodity index has once again showed a downward trend which also supported demand for the US dollar. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD decreased.

Despite the demand for the US corporate bonds with the positive overseas jobless claims release for the last week earlier encouraged bulls cheered for the "longs" opening within the pair USD/JPY, during the day traders systematically built up short positions that allowed to finish the trading day with the quotations decrease.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Germany came into deflation and now the euro bulls remained without support. Today it is difficult to expect surprises from the Eurozone CPI release. Last week the ECB President Mario Draghi signaled about the risk balance for the first quarter of 2015 shifted towards the negative direction.

The euro corrective rise from the support level of 1.1170 turned into the flat framework of 1.1385 - 1.1275. The trade is at the low volumes, still the pair is heading towards the downward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1400 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support levels of 1.1170, 1.1040.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The main event of the day is the 4th quarter US GDP release. All macroeconomic releases from October to December showed the US economic growth high rate that allows us to rely on the data release better than the consensus forecast. Last week we received the UK GDP data and the quarterly growth by 0.5% will be quite weak amid the US strong growth.

The pound corrective growth was stopped by the mark of 1.5200. The mark testing was followed by the consolidation with the following rebounds downwards.

The target has already been achieved by the support level of 1.5100 breakthrough, and the level of 1.5015 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.4920 and 1.4800 where the pair may stop, further on we expect a consolidation.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the Japan inflation release. The strong energy prices decline with the weak consumer demand does not allow us to count on the positive news.

The sellers reduced the price to the strong support level of 117.00 amid the very low volume that has already turned the downward trend upwards for four times.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The level of 117.00 retest is more likely to lead to a consolidation. Then we expect the upward movement.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc stopped to suffer losses and started a consolidation while the dollar index has reached the maximum level for the last 10 years amid expectations that the Fed was the only major central bank which was ready to raise interest rates.

Additional support for the US dollar caused the US labor market release. The jobless claims have reached the 15 years low.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9340. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Feb 02, 2015 4:20 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.87. During the day the pair EUR/USD was under pressure after the euro area weak inflation data. According to the preliminary estimates the CPI decline has accelerated and the Old World deflationary disease is developing at full speed. As a result, the trade within the euro/dollar finished with the quotations slight increase in the consolidation range.

The UK 10- year bond yields sharp decline acted as a major factor for the British pound sales against the US dollar. The Gilts yields installed a fresh 5-year minimum that is a bearish factor for the pair GBP/USD. Even the US GDP moderately negative data for the 4th quarter was unable to reverse the negative trend. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased.

The Japan moderate positive macroeconomic statistics encouraged bears to open the "shorts". The inflation was 0.1% in December that came better than forecasted medians, despite the household expenditure negative release. Traders ignored the personal consumption weak data and focused their attention on the CPI report. The US GDP strong release was unable to support bulls and they were disappointed. Growth in the 4th quarter amounted to 2.6% instead of the expected growth by 3%. Pressure on the dollar was growing and finally the trading day ended with the quotations decrease.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The United States will publish the manufacturing sector ISM report. The low demand for the commodity market makes us think that we will get the release within the forecasted medians. In this regard, the US dollar bulls will remain without strengths and we can expect the moderate demand for the single European currency.

The most part of the last week the trade was within the flat after a slight upward correction to the support level of 1.1170. The flat continued on Monday.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.1400 test is more likely to lead to the support levels of 1.1300, 1.1170 return.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK manufacturing sector last 2014 quarter was very weak and amid the euro zone economy weakness it is difficult to expect positive changes. We can expect the news slightly worse than the forecast which will have some pressure on the British pound.

There was a short-term resistance level of 1.5100 testing amid the low volumes. The level testing was followed by the price rebound downwards with the following testing and fixating above the support near 1.5015.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5200. The strong resistance level 1.5200 test will be followed by a consolidation.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of important macroeconomic statistics, the traders’ attention will be focused on the Japanese stock market dynamics. The US GDP moderately negative release for the fourth quarter will encourage bears to open short positions on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Market. We can expect the ISM index within the forecasted medians that cannot cause strong reaction from the traders’ part.

The trading week opening within this instrument was followed by a gap. Due to the price gap sellers tested the support the level of 117.00, but they could not consolidate under this level. Within two hours the gap was closed.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 117.00 may lead to a price rebound up. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 118.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc fell after the central bank let the exchange rate become free in mid-January. The reason for the last week decrease caused the comments by Jean-Pierre Danthine, the Swiss central bank vice-president that the regulator was ready for intervention.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:10 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

During the day the pair EUR/USD enjoyed a demand amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The ISM manufacturing index showed decline to the level of 53.5 in January which is the lowest level since March 2013. The manufacturing sector weakness is a negative factor for the economic growth and against this background traders get rid of the US dollar.

The UK moderately positive manufacturing PMI was able to support the GBP/USD bulls. The UK 10-year bond yields increase negates all the traders’ efforts who rely on the strong uptrend. Moreover, the British Gilts and the German Bund bond yields enhances demand for the pair which also puts pressure on the British pound. Nevertheless the pound grew amid the dollar weakness.

The US ISM manufacturing sector weak release encouraged bears to short with USD/JPY. The US industry business activity has been declining for two consecutive months which is the first wake-up call. It should also be noted the manufacturing sector employment decline according to the ISM. The negative background caused not only the US dollar decrease, but also hit the US stock market - leading indices have updated the last week minimum values.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

During the day the pair can show a moderate effect amid the two key factors. Firstly, during the two days we have seen the "black gold" growth which is a negative factor for the US dollar. Secondly, the UK and German 10-year bond yields reduction encouraged bulls to long which will also support the single European currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1520, the next one is at 1.1590.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.1590.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Markit Economics will publish the UK second release – for this time we will obtain the construction sector data. On the one hand, the Bank of England has reported about the approved mortgage applications number increase in December. The UK average earnings growth has a positive impact on the consumer activity. On the other hand, the mortgage loans volume has been declining for five consecutive months, according to the British Bankers' Association that the construction industry decrease cannot allow us to count on the strong data release.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of any important macroeconomic statistics we should expect the moderate upward trend. After the January sales in the US stock markets we can expect the bulls’ return. The current levels are
attractive for medium-term positions and this factor will support demand for the pair.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential increase target is the resistance level of 118.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pressure on the Swiss franc was caused by the SNB messages that the SNB would informally keep
the franc against the euro within a specific corridor.

The US dollar was supported by the US labor market report. Nevertheless the franc slightly strengthened at the end of the day.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9340. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9340.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Feb 04, 2015 4:37 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The dollar exchange rate stabilized after the most powerful decrease for the last year that was caused by the commodity producing countries currency growth. The day was not rich with important macroeconomic statistics that suggests the beginning of the global dollar correction. We should also mention the bullish rally in two key commodity markets assets: copper increased by 3.8%, the Brent oil rose up by 4.7%. At the same time, it is more difficult for the Fed officials to ignore external factors and other central banks actions.

The euro is decreasing against the dollar after a significant increase during the previous session, supported by hopes for the Greek debt situation compromise. The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras assured international lenders that he did not want to create conflicts in Europe.

The pound also strengthened against the dollar. The trend is developing in favor of the pound on the bond market: the UK 10-year bond yields are growing in relation to the US and German securities which is a bullish factor.

The dollar has grown against the yen due to the US and the Japanese stock market bond yields increase.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The first medium-term correction phase is in the midst of its peak and now it is fatal to open the "shorts" within the euro. The traders’ attention will be focused on the December euro zone retail sales publication. The retail sector sales decrease was traditionally observed in the Old World last month, but the Germany and France consumer spending growth cannot allow us to count on the weak data.

The seven week trading session downward channel was broken through upwards. The level breakthrough of 1.1400 was at the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1520, the next one is at 1.1590.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will consolidate around the level of 1.1300.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Markit Economics will publish the UK service sector business climate data. The unemployment reduction with the UK average wage increase can allow us to count on the index growth compared to the previous month. In this regard, the British pound can get some support.

The support level of 1.5015 stopped the pound decline against the US dollar for the second time. The short-term level testing was followed by the price upward rebound amid the increased trading volumes. The resistance levels of 1.5100 and 1.5200 were broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the resistance at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Despite the fact that we saw a steady growth in the world's leading stock markets which is a positive factor for the pair dollar/yen. However, the US dollar global correction with the service sector moderately negative ISM release will put pressure on bulls.

The strong support level of 117.00 breakthrough was not so long. Buyers bought out the price, returning the trade above the level of 117.00 which still plays the role of a reference support.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward correction target is the level of 118.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has grown due to the dollar general decline against other major currencies. The statistics played a significant role in it. The US factory orders data showed a decline by 3.4% m/m in December during the session.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Feb 05, 2015 5:40 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD showed a growth after a moderate decline - bulls took profits on the long positions after this week strong growth. Macroeconomic data showed a mixed background – the euro zone unemployment positive release was replaced by the US service sector ISM business activity positive one.

The sales within the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate put pressure on the euro after the UK positive publication. Nevertheless the pair grew after a decrease.

Yesterday the British pound enjoyed a steady demand. The UK services sector PMI index showed a growth to the level of 57.2%. It is also worth noting that the British indicator was able to bypass the same US indicator in January despite the fact that the ISM has reported the non-productive sphere increase. Against this positive background, the pair GBP/USD rose up at the end of the day.

The US macroeconomic statistics which was published on Wednesday can be regarded as negative. The ADP and ISM employment releases came out worse than the forecasted medians that with the manufacturing sector employment decrease cannot allow us to count on strong non-farm data output. The services sector business activity showed growth compared to the previous month, but the industrial sector weakness signals about the economic growth slowdown. Against this background, bears opened short positions within the pair USD/JPY that caused the quotations decrease. The pair increased at the end of the trading day.




Euro (EUR)

General overview

The December US trade balance can disappointed traders with its weak data. First, the dollar revaluation makes the US goods less competitive which is a negative factor for exports. Second, we observed the traditional trade deficit increase in December. Against this background, we can expect the data slightly worse than the forecasted medians.

After buyers broke through the level of 1.1400 we expected a good corrective wave upwards within the euro. However, the reverse support level breakthrough of 1.1400 led to the correction completion. After the level of 1.1300 testing the pair rebounded upwards and closed the trades above the level of 1.1400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1520, the next one is at 1.1590.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Daed Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two support levels of: 1.1400, 1.1300, 1.1170.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Despite the UK rapid inflation decline – we should not expect surprises from the Bank of England in terms of monetary policy changes. All the negative predictions have already been laid in the current market price and against this background the traders’ attention will be focused on the US statistics.

The resistance level of 1.5200 was tested. The test led to the level breakthrough was followed by the rapid price growth. The resistance level of 1.5300 was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5400. After breaking 1.5400 the buyers may go to 1.5510.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US moderately negative macroeconomic trade balance statistics with the technical correction which we observe in the USDX dollar index shows the bearish sentiment predominance. However, the economic slowdown in Japan as well as the world's leading stock markets growth will not allow the yen to strengthen significantly.

The price movement is changeable at the level of 117.00 which first makes its way downwards and then upwards. During the breaks the trade volumes are in the reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1400 may lead to a price consolidation.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc temporarily strengthened against the dollar after the relatively weak ADP report publication. The ADP report traditionally helps to correct expectations for Friday's employment report.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9340. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Feb 09, 2015 5:16 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

All traders’ attention was focused on the UK macroeconomic statistics. The January labor market release pleased investors with its positive data. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 257 thousand that exceeded the traders’ expectations by 23 thousand. It will also possible the average hourly wage increase by 0.5% which will spur private consumption and will have a positive impact on the US economic growth. Against this positive background, traders once again started to increase long positions within the US dollar and we have seen the dollar rapid quotations growth. Then there was a consolidation in the majors pairs.

The present-day political news could support the US dollar - the Fed representatives Plosser and Lockhart gave "hawkish" tone speeches which can be judged according to the words about the unemployment increase that will not cause anxiety and the US CB is approaching the moment when it will be difficult to justify keeping interest rates at the same level.

The Bank of Japan continues to show confidence in the inflation targets achievement in 2015. The Central Bank will not intend to use the additional easing measures if there is the inflation decrease because of the falling oil prices. According to the Bank of Japan representative Iwate, the trending prices level shows a steady growth which will lead the inflation to the target level of 2% in 2015 fiscal year. At the same time, he believes that the oil prices decline complicates the Central Bank efforts in relation to the increasing inflation level and will delay this target implementation.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

It should be highlighted the Germany trade balance data publication. The euro devaluation with the industrial production moderate increase indicates the data output within the forecasted medians.

Sellers have broken through the support level of 1.1400 for the second time. The pair stopped at the support level of 1.1300 where pair is consolidating.

The support level breakthrough of 1.1400 was followed by the price decrease to the mark of 1.1300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1170 breakthrough down the way to the support level of 1.1040 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Traders will take a break to assess the future trends perspectives amid the absence of the UK and the US important macroeconomic statistics. The US labor market positive data can spur demand for the US dollar. The UK 10-year bond yields are growing in relation to the US and German securities which is a bullish factor.

The key resistance of 1.5300 is still relevant. Buyers have tried to test this mark, but without subsequent level breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can breakthrough to the support level of 1.5200. After breaking 1.5200 the pair may go to 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan Ministry of Finance published the current account surplus data in December which amounted to 187.2 billion yen. The growth rate has not met analysts' forecasts that amounted to 355.8 billion yen and were lower than in November when the surplus amounted to 433.0 billion yen. The trade balance deficit reached 395.6 billion yen, beating analysts' expectations.

There was a rebound from the support level of 117.00. The price growth fell to 119.20. The pair rebounded downwards from this level. The trade volumes are in reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation will be continued now. The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 118.00, 117.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc fell slightly amid the dollar growth. The US dollar compensated losses incurred at the beginning of the week after the unexpectedly US labor market strong report publication. The number of new jobs was 257K in January after 252K and the unemployment rate was  5.7% in January against 5.6%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is consolidating now. We should wait till the pair will came out of the flat.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Feb 10, 2015 5:02 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD was able to compensate some lost ground amid the Germany positive trade balance for December. The index went out significantly better than the forecasted medians that encouraged bulls to long. As a result, the trading day the pair euro/dollar finished with a growth after a slight decrease.

During the day the pair GBP/USD showed a lateral trend in the absence of the UK and the US important macroeconomic statistics. The UK and the US 10-year bond yields expansion encouraged bears to short and at the moment the price reached the level of 1.5200 after which there was a technical rebound upwards.

Yesterday there was a downward trend on the world's leading stock markets that had a negative impact on the USD/JPY. Traders fixed profits on the long positions after the rapid Friday growth. Nevertheless, the pair dollar/yen recovered lost positions after a decrease.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

In the absence important macroeconomic statistics traders shall focus their attention on the bond market dynamics. Yesterday we observed the US and Germany 10-year bond yields, which is a bearish factor for the euro.

The price consolidated inside the "rectangle" near the levels of 1.1385 - 1.1275. The downward trend potential is preserved.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.1300 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1170 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the industrial production. The PMI manufacturing index showed a decline to the level of 52.5%, indicating the industrial sector slowdown. We expect the data output slightly worse than the forecasted medians which will add pressure on the British pound.

Sellers managed to break through the support level of 1.5200 which currently acts as a resistance. A consolidation below the level 1.5300 and the resistance level of 1.5200 will last till the GDP fundamental data output.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the support level of 1.5015.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Yesterday we observed a USD/JPY correction and also on the world's leading stock markets, so today we may expect the bulls’ return. The US Treasury 10-year bond yields are still below 2% and the current levels are attractive for long positions on the US stock market.

The first downward trend line testing of 119.20 was followed by a slight price rebound downwards. Trading volumes have not shown spikes at the lower prices. Then the pair increased and broke through the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.20, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 120.40 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 117.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Feb 11, 2015 7:33 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD pair consolidated near the 13th figure amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone and the US. Traders took a wait-and-see position and against this background there was a sluggish trade.

The pair GBP/USD tested the 52nd figure in the first half of the day after the weak industrial production release. The index decreased by 0.2% in December while traders expected a growth by 0.3%. At the moment quotes reached the level of 1.5200 after which there was a trend reversal. The US and UK negative bond yields reduction encouraged bulls to long.

Strong growth on the world's leading stock markets supported demand for the USD/JPY during the day. Traders used correctional movement to build up long positions and as a result, the pair has grown up.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Eurozone and the United States have pleased traders with interesting macroeconomic releases. The fundamental background for the main pairs is mixed now. On the one hand, we have seen the US and Germany 10-year bond yields expansion which is a bearish signal. There is the largest oil workers’ strike for the last 30 years that pushes up the "black gold" prices. The oil correction has not finished yet which is a bullish factor for the pair euro/dollar.

The price continued its consolidation at the support level of 1.1300 was followed by its rebound downwards below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.1170 this week.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We should not count on the steady quotations growth in the absence of important macroeconomic statistics. The UK 10-year bond yields are raising in relation to the Germany and the US analogues that is a bullish factor for the "cable".

Sellers are dominant in this market. The medium-term downward trend is held by the key resistance as a downward trend line of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.5015.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan celebrated a national holiday – the state foundation day. On this occasion, the Japan banking institutions were closed yesterday. Growth in the world's leading stock markets will spur demand for the pair dollar/yen.

There were the resistance level of 119.20 breakthrough and the level of 120.40 testing. Due to the formed breakthrough the medium-term downward trend reversed upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.20, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 120.40 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 121.60 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:44 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the US dollar lost its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.02. During the day the pair EUR/USD consolidated near the 13th figure amid the empty macroeconomic calendar. This week there was a flat within main pair and soon we expect it to leave the range. The euro strengthened on the yesterday’s trades.

The pair GBP/USD enjoyed steady demand in the morning amid the sales within the cross-rate euro/pound. The UK and Germany 10-year bond yields expansion strengthened the bearish trend within the cross-rate which positively affected the British pound. Still the "cable" has lost all the advantage by the end of the day. The pound increased amid the BoE chief’s speech.

Bulls were dominant on the Tokyo stock exchange market that encouraged bulls to long during the day. This factor with the 10-year US Treasury bond yields increase formed strong demand for the US dollar. The Treasuries bond yields exceeded the level of 2% for the first time this month amid expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates in mid-year. Nevertheless the pair sharply fell.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The consolidation that we saw the last three trading days was fallowed by the growth. The United States will publish the retail sales release for January. The Michigan University consumer confidence leading indicators and the Conference Board showed an impressive growth in January which proves a high demand in the retail sector. The average earnings index grew by 0.5% in January which is extremely positive for the consumer activity.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1520 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to the level of 1.1590.



Pound(GBP)

General overview

Traders responded positively on the Bank of England quarterly inflation report. We saw an unemployment decrease in the UK which together with the average earnings growth is a positive factor not only for the economic growth, but also for the inflation. The UK 10-year bond yields are now at the level of 1.67% that is higher by 33 basis points above the January lows.

The trade within the pound looked quite sluggish and low volatile. The pound sharply increased after the news publication.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upwards movements and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets is the resistance level of 1.5510.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair decreased but the bullish trend is gaining momentum and now we expect the trend continuation. The United States can please traders with the retail sales positive statistics for January that will encourage traders to long.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. After breaking 119.20 the buyers may go to 120.40 and 121.60.



Franc (СHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc consolidated in the narrow range this week. The pair slightly increased at the yesterday’s trades.

The main event is the US retail sales report. It is expected that the report figures will not be too good because of the gasoline prices decrease, it is also expected the cars slight sales decline, but the base rate should be higher than December one by 0.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is consolidating now. We should wait till the pair will came out of the flat.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sat Feb 14, 2015 5:35 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The January retail sale release disappointed traders with the weak data - the sales fell by 0.9% in January, indicating the weak private consumption and this is a negative factor for the economic growth. Against this background, the pair euro/dollar closed the trades at the opening price.

The British pound has shown the strong quotes growth after the Bank of England quarter inflation report release. The report is uneven. On the one hand, Mark Carney pointed to the monetary control willingness to decrease the key rate, if necessary, because of the oil prices decrease. On the other hand, traders noted that the rates could be increased earlier than expected. Traders focused their attention only on the last statement and began to open "longs". Against this positive background, the pair GBP/USD has grown.

Traders fixed profits at the pair USD/JPY after a sharp increase. The US negative retail sector sales statistics has accelerated the corrective movement development and at the moment quotes reached the level of 118.50 after which there was a technical rebound amid the US stock market growth. As a result, the pair dollar/yen decreased at the end of the day.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Germany recorded the GDP growth for the fourth quarter. The manufacturing and the service sector showed a slowdown in the last 2014 quarter. The euro devaluation has had a positive effect on the net exports, reducing unemployment to 0.1%. The Brent oil increased by more than 5% that would be able to support moderate demand for the single European currency.

There was the attempt to break through the resistance level of 1.1400, but the pair failed to fixate above it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1520 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1590.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The currency market major players reacted positively to the quarter inflation report despite the fact that the Bank of England governor pointed out to the monetary policy easing if necessary. Mark Carney noted that the British banks recapitalization had made the key interest rate decrease possible.

There were the resistance level of 1.5300 and the level of 1.5400 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance 1.5400. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 1.5510.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of the US and Japan important macroeconomic statistics, traders will focus their attention on the stock and bond market dynamics. Yesterday we observed a high demand for the risky assets amid the geopolitical tension decrease because of the Ukraine events as well as the US retail sales positive statistics.

After testing the strong resistance level of 120.40, the price has formed a short-term consolidation and sharply fell downwards. The support level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 118.00 further on we expect a decrease to 117.00 where the pair may stop.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar/franc will be consolidated with the risks balance, biased to the downside after it has reached the eight-day high of 0.9340 on Thursday.

The pair is under the market deteriorating relationships pressure towards the US dollar. The pair potential target is constrained by the Switzerland negative interest rates, by the Swiss National Bank intervention threat with the franc sales and the Swiss franc sales within the growing pair euro/franc.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is consolidating now. We should wait till the pair will came out of the flat.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:11 pm



"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro exchange rate rose against the US dollar on Monday; the market's attention was directed to the Euro group meeting on Greece. The euro area finance ministers held a regular meeting on Monday evening where they discussed the Greek problem. Meanwhile, the European Financial Stability Fund governor (ESM), Klaus Regling stated on Sunday that the Greek exit from the euro zone would be the worst way out of the situation. The euro fell at the end of the trading day.

It is possible the price output from the range of 1.5320-5420 upwards within the British pound, but the movement can be muted by the expectations concerning the Tuesday inflation indices and the Wednesday Bank of England last meeting minutes publication - as the Monetary Policy Committee members supported the M.Karni’s idea to raise interest rates in the medium term.

The yen is becoming more expensive against the US dollar and the euro amid the Japan's GDP positive data that weakened expectations for taking stimulating measures by the Japanese Central Bank.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

A stronger than expected the 4th quarter Eurozone GDP preliminary data supported the market’s sentiment towards the pair. The pair is also supported by the negative market’s attitude towards the dollar. The pair growth potential is limited by the ECB large-scale quantitative easing program and by the euro sales in the EUR/JPY.

Based on the medium-term trend bears are still dominant on the market. The pair rebounded downwards from the level of 1.1400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the resistance level of 1.1300. After breaking 1.1300 the sellers may go to 1.1170.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pair is supported by the market’s negative attitude towards the dollar and the demand for the British pound in the declining euro/pound. The pair is also supported by the Bank of England Monetary Policy member statement  that the UK interest rates can be increased sooner than investors expect, as in the next two years inflation is expected to be close to the central bank's target level of 2.0%.

There was the resistance level of 1.5400 breakthrough amid the raised volume. But the pair couldn’t fixate above this level and it rebounded below it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5300 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5400, 1.5500.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was not so much liquidity during the global trading day as the US financial markets did not work due to the national holiday.

The pair is under pressure because of the deteriorated relationship towards the dollar on the February consumer confidence preliminary index unexpected decrease, according to the University of Michigan, to 93.6 from 98.1 in January, with the growth forecast to 98.3.

The sharp prices decline from the resistance level of 120.40 was followed by the level of 119.20 breakthrough. The pair is decreasing towards 118.00 amid the lower volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 119.20, 120.40.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Feb 18, 2015 3:48 am



"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Euro group meeting results report was published where the Greece debt problems were discussed. As it became known Greeks refused to renew the assistance program on the same terms as the euro zone finance ministers rejected the Greek Government proposals contained earlier demands for changes in the current agreement. Against this background, the dollar rose sharply against the euro, the pound, and the yen.

It is worth noting that the dollar growth was restrained, apparently, because of the European authorities statements indicated that the issue could be still resolved on Friday as told the Euro group governor Dijsselbloem if "the Greek authorities are willing to undertake their obligations".

According to the statistics the US news line will be almost empty. Investors' attention can attract the NAHB report which is expected with the housing market index growth in February to 58 from the previous 57 that indicates the moods improvement among the housing market builders. As for the prospects, it is likely that the dollar will be traded under the European news influence where the economic calendar is much richer in content.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair is under pressure after the news that the latest negotiations round between Greece and its euro zone partners, concerning the financial assistance to the country, has suffered a sudden failure on Monday when Athens once again refused to ask for the current assistance extension program by 172 billion euro which expires on February 28.

The triangle upper bound testing of 1.1400 was followed by the price rebound downwards to the level of 1.1300. The pair did not reach this level and returned to the resistance level of 1.1400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.1300 for a steady decrease. The way to the marks 1.1170 and 1.1040 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The January UK inflation will be in the center of our attention. It is forecasted the consumer price index (CPI) decline by 0.9%.

The pair is under pressure amid the investors increased risk aversion. The potential pair decrease was limited by demand for the British pound in the declining pair euro/pound.

The upward trend was stopped at the mark of 1.5400 from which was followed a slight rebound downwards and formed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5300 and 1.5200 soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese economic news was not published; the pair dollar/yen traded in the narrow range under the influence of the Japan stock and bond market events. As for the prospects, in the terms of tension increase related to the euro area conflict situation, interest to the yen as a refuge, apparently, is still preserved.

After the strong support level of 119.20 breakthrough the price returned back to this mark, serving as a strong resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support levels of 118.00 and 117.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Feb 18, 2015 7:14 pm



"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar fixed divergent results in the disputes with its main competitors. The dollar has grown against the euro and the yen and has fallen against the pound. Earlier the euro was supported by the economic data and the hopes that the Greeks and the Eurozone still will come to an agreement, because both sides expressed readiness to continue the dialogue.

The Japanese yen came under pressure amid the renewed US "Treasuries" bond yields growth and the neutral mood within the pound, formed due to the absence of negativity in the US inflation readings that was reduced, but only because of the energy prices decrease which is considered as a positive moment in an economic development.

The US statistics showed not so encouraging results. The New-York Fed manufacturing index fell in February to 7.78 from 9.95 in January while the components, indicating the possible prospects, also decreased - new orders fell to 1.22 from the previous 6.09 and the employment growth slowed to 10.1 from 13.7 last month. With the home builders sentiment decrease has been announced the National Home Builders Association report (NAHB) – the index fell down to 55 against 57 in January when it was expected a growth to the level of 58. These messages discouraged investors a little bit, still it has not caused the large-scale dollar sales.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair euro/dollar was supported by the ECB reports that the Bank will not stop the emergence Greek banks funding this week and Greece will request for the financial assistance program extension.

However, according to the ZEW the attitude towards the euro has deteriorated because of the weaker than expected sentiment indicators growth in the German economy.

Despite the level breakthrough of 1.1400, the price did not hurry to rise up to the correction. The pair fell under this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1520 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The attitude towards the pound declined after the UK annual inflation decrease to the minimum for more than 50 years to 0.3% in January from 0.5% in December that was in line with our expectations. The pair growth potential also restricts the British pound sales within the increasing pair euro/pound.

The last week maximum of 1.5300 served as a good support for the corrective pound. The formed consolidation above this level signals about the bullish trend continuation. The pair rebounded upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.5400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are two resistance levels of 1.5510 и 1.5620.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan monetary policy decision was in the center of our attention on Wednesday. The central bank governor Mr. Kuroda said that there were no reasons to think about the additional mitigating measures. The pair is supported by the yen weakened attractiveness as a safe haven.

The two day consolidation around 118.60 was followed by the price rebound upwards. The pair rose to the resistance level of 119.20. The trading volumes are in the downgrade zone.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement, and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 118.00 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:29 am



"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The downward pressure on the USD was intensified after the not so encouraging economic indicators publication; taking into consideration the Fed Open Market Commission meeting minutes’ soft tone, the first interest rates growth is likely to be postponed until June. The US securities followed the dollar example; the 10-year bond yields fell from 2.15% to 2.08%. But surprisingly the protocols soft tone only worsened the situation, the main factor of exchange rate dynamics are negotiations between Greece and the EU.

The pair EUR / USD rebounded to 1.1415 after the Fed meeting minute’s publication, but it was unable to find enough buyers and moved into the consolidation phase. Even at the last moment the agreement between Greece and the EU can be the catalyst that will trigger the pair EUR/USD correction. The pair GBP/USD is stable near the more than one-month high against the US dollar as the US dollar remains under pressure. The pair USD/JPY fell to after the Fed news and it rebounded upwards to 118.96. The pair weakly responded to the favorable data on the trade volume changes and the Ministry of Finance week report.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ECB increased its loan to Greek banks, approving the amount of 68.3 billion euros that gives Athens some time to reach an agreement with the international lenders. However, the euro got the supported from the Fed minutes and after their release the currency bloc increased and leveled losses against the dollar incurred earlier. Then the pair fell.

The continuous consolidation was at the level of 1.1400. The trade volumes are in the reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.1300 further on we expect a growth to 1.1520.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound slightly fell/ Nevertheless, the British pound strengthened against all of its major competitors. The pound was supported by the UK economic data that declared a high employment level.

The strong resistance level of 1.5400 was broken. The pair is consolidating above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5490.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The summarizing event was the US bank minutes announcement. The "minutes" soft tone provoked the dollar sales and then the yen has strengthened.

Previously, pressure on the pair came from the Kuroda’s statements, the Bank of Japan governor, who excluded additional monetary policy easing measures in the short term, but the Japan stock market growth supported the pair.


The US dollar slight decrease led to the prices decline to the level of 118.60. Then the pair grew and tested the mark of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 118.15, 117.15 soon.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair doolar-franc started the upward movement. The Swiss franc has slightly strengthened its position after the FOMC protocols. There are risks regarding the geopolitical situation in the FOMC meeting minutes on 27-28 January. Taking into account the low inflation and other risks, many committee members tend to the zero rate preservation for a longer period of time.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9150. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Feb 22, 2015 11:32 am



"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The negative emotions towards the dollar are exhausted after the Fed minutes publication. The market is again waiting for the new benchmarks and against this background the pair returned to the range trading.

The dollar was trading different directed s against its major competitors. The US economic data showed a mixed trend, but a part of the messages, relating to employment, provided some support for the dollar. Last week the initial jobless claims pointed to the labor market strengthening- the jobless claims decreased by 21 thousand up to 283 thousand when we expected a more solid figure- 290 thousand.

The Philadelphia Fed report witnessed the manufacturing sector activity slowdown to 5.2 in February from 6.3 in January, but the release component, noting employment, increased in this case - the index rose to the level of 3.9 against the previous 2.0.

The US economic meaningful statistics is not ready for output; the dollar will be under the European reports influence where the news background is much richer, both in terms of statistics and policy.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone news turned out to quite dull and the euro recovered its decline but in increased at the end of the trades. The France consumer price index showed -1.0% in January against the expected -0.9%. The euro zone payments balance was 17.8 billion euros in December against 19.9 billion in November while it was forecasted 23.3 billion euros.

Germany refused Greece to renew the loan agreement for six months on those considerations that Greece refuses to comply with the austerity measures. Nevertheless the Greece and the Eurogroupe came to an agreement.

The level of 1.1400 breakthrough was not followed by the strong euro growth against the US dollar. On the contrary, the trade has become a protracted consolidation within the levels of 1.1400 - 1.1300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1400, 1.1520.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The January UK retail sales are expected with a decline by 0.1%. The public borrowing sector is projected with the demand decline by 9.5 billion pounds which has become a consistent pattern for January during the last five years.

The strong pound growth is paused for a short-term rebound at the mark of 1.5400. This level is already broken through downwards. Then the pair slightly increased and tested this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward potential target is 1.5300. If the price increases it will get to 1.5510.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen is trading in the range with the 40 points amplitude. The Japanese long-term bond yields became balanced on the average three- to five-day levels, the medium-term bond yields continued to decline; the two-year bond yields have declined from the medium level of 0.045% to the level of 0.035% while the six-month bond yields have fallen from the last week medium level of 0.02% to the level of 0.005%.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 118.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar slightly strengthened against all of its major competitors. The US economic data marked a mixed trend, but a part of the messages, relating to employment, provided some support for the US dollar.

The pair dollar/franc easily broke through the level of 0.9340 after it tested the level of 0.9540. Then the pair decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9150. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:05 pm



"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

After reaching the Friday "truce" between Athens and the creditors on the Greece loans issue for four months under the guarantee of performing reforms, the market focused its attention on the J. Yellen two-day speech , the Federal Reserve governor which will be held on February 24 and 25. Yellen will announce her position to the economy state and maybe she will give a hint about rate saving to normalize monetary policy, followed by the rates increase.

If the Yellen speech result will be the US economy upward trend acknowledgement and the number of pessimistic characteristics is not going to be large - it will be a good signal to the fact that the Fed remains on the way to raise interest rates in the middle of this year. If this happens, the single currency and the yen clearly come out of the corridors in which they have already been the significant period of time and will continue to fall against the US dollar.

Difference in opinions, concerning the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve monetary policy is a negative factor for the yen. It is also important for the yen, but other additional factor will be the ECB government bonds real foreclosure which will expand its balance sheet and reduce the single currency price.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone finance ministers finally reached a compromise on the Greek debt. It is expected that the draft agreement will help to prolong the financial assistance program for 4 to 6 months with no obligations on the Greece part to comply with the austerity measures on which the Euro group insisted earlier.

There was the short-term strong support level of 1.1300 testing which was followed by the strong price rebound upwards. The price rebound was followed amid the very high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential increase target is the resistance level of 1.1400.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK published the retail sales report according to the British Industry Confederation. The index showed +1 after +39. This is the minimum since November 2013.

The pair GBP/USD still continues to be in demand on the dips, however, the pair failed to return above the fifty-fourth figure.

There was a short-term consolidation under the resistance level of 1.5400. This consolidation was followed by an active rebound upwards above this level against the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5510 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5620 .



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair dollar/yen declined amid the risk aversion last week as the Greek crisis current phase has forced investors to keep looking for a refuge. The information about the draft agreement between the Greeks and the Euro group provoked the pair reversal.

Sellers have tried to break through below the strong support level of 118.00 for three times last two weeks. There has been the price rebound upwards for three times.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential target is 118.00. If the price grows it will get to 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Tue Feb 24, 2015 2:22 pm



"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The European currency fell against the US dollar after the weaker than expected German Ifo index report. Janet Yellen’s speech did not move the market. Janet Yellen announced that the rates would be at the current level for a while.

The trades finished in favor of the US dollar which strengthened against the euro by 60 points, the volatility was 102 points during the day.

The Germany business sentiment indicators increased in February, but its results were lower than experts had forecasted. The Germany business sentiment index amounted to 106.8 points against 106.7 ones in January while economists had expected that it would be around 107.7 points.

The US dollar got under pressure amid the second housing market release, which, according to the National Realtors NAR Association, fell by 4.9% compared with December and amounted to 4.82 million of homes per year. Economists had expected in January sales of existing homes will be reduced to 4.98 million homes a year. Compared with the same period of the previous year the US second housing market sales rose by 3.2% in January.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Janet Yellen’s speech was not a surprise for the market. Traders expected that the rates would not be changed. According to the Ifo, the market’s attitude towards the euro was negatively affected by the smaller than expected the February business sentiment index growth in Germany.

After the continuous consolidation there was a little rebound. The pair made a strong support level of 1.1300 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1400, 1.1520.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK retail sales weak data negatively affect attitude towards the pound in February. The growth potential is also constrained by the improving market relations towards the dollar and by the investors’ risk appetite weakening. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney made his speech in front of the finance parliamentary committee.

The resistance level of 1.5400 breakthrough was followed by the active price rebound upwards. The price rebound from the level was without volumes. Then the pair tested the support level of 1.5400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 1.5510 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 1.5620 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair dollar/yen traded under the pairs’ selling pressure with the yen amid the risk appetite weakening. On Tuesday more than expected the secondary housing market sales decline affected the pair. Trades were cautious in anticipation of the Janet Yellen speech in front of the Senate Committee on the banking activities.

The trade within the Japanese yen is within the side corridor near 118.40 - 119.50. However, bulls still dominate due to the fact that the medium-term uptrend is still preserved within this market.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 119.20 for a steady growth.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Feb 25, 2015 6:17 pm



"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The main dollar disappointment was the US Federal Reserve governor speech. Janet Yellen in her comments made it clear that the regulator still kept thinking about interest rates increase, but she did not mention more or less explicit terms. In addition, Janet Yellen made it clear that even the January new jobs increase had not yet convinced the Fed that the labor market was stable and noted quite high inflation. Therefore, the market took her words as evidence that it is necessary to wait for a long period the low interest rates.

The Eurozone will not publish interesting statistics. Mario Draghi will make his speech, but it is unlikely that the ECB governor will say something new and different from what we had repeatedly heard. Therefore, the euro is likely to show us something special.

 The UK will not publish interesting macroeconomic data. Still the BOE Governor comments will influence the pair.

The pair dollar / yen will monitor the situation within the US housing market. The second Yellen’s speech is not much different from what she had said the day before. Therefore, the market will ignore this factor with a fairly high probability because everything stated by the Fed has actually built into the price. Anyway the primary housing market sales data can affect the market.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

After the Janet Yellen speech the market concluded that the US Central Bank was not inclined to hurry up with the interest rates increase. In particular she noted that the Fed would maintain a flexibility in raising rates issue and added that their increase at "the nearest pair of meetings is unlikely."

The price is still in the side corridor at the level of 1.1400 - 1.1300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.1400. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1520.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Apparently, the Bank of England chose not to focus its attention on the short-term inflation and made it clear that the next step would be the interest rates increase. The Yellen speech can affect the pair movement.

Due to the rebound from the support level of 1.5300 the British pound confidently continued its upward trend, breaking through the resistance level of 1.5400 on its way. The pair tested the resistance level of 1.5510.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5620.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair is under pressure from the US Treasury bond yields decrease and the deteriorated attitude towards the dollar after the Fed chairman semi-annual speech in Congress. She noted economic improvement and reminded investors that the central bank was close to the borrowings cost increase.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks 119.20 up it will open the way to the level of 120.40 and then to 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:13 am



"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

In the light of the Fed recent announcements all investors’ attention will be focused on the US economic data, namely the consumer inflation figures, durable goods orders, jobless claims, real wages and the US GDP.


It is expected that jobless claims will grow up, but not much, to 290 000 against 283 000. The main thing is that they remain below 300,000 which will point out to the continued strong upward trend in the labor market.

The January real wages data will play an important role. In December it increased by 0.2% and in January it is expected to rise by 0.3%. And, despite the fact that this figure is quite volatile, the overall salary dynamics increase indicates, although, the slow, but the US income recovery levels.

The US economic figures came out better then the forecast or even a little better and it returned expectation for the further interest rate increase in June to the markets and will have a positive impact on the US dollar. We would like to remind that on Tuesday and Wednesday J. Yellen persistently claimed that the interest rate increase deadlines will depend on the labor market and inflation statistics.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro sharply fell at the end of the trades. Earlier the pair euro/dollar was supported by the negative attitude towards the dollar and demand for the single European currency within the growing euro/yen amid the risk aversion weakening on the market. The euro growth potential is limited by the ECB large-scale quantitative easing program and the euro sales.

The pair was growing from the support level of 1.1300 amid the low volumes. Nevertheless the pair could not continue the growth and sharply decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support level of 1.1170.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pair GBP/USD maintained the market negative attitude towards the dollar, demand for British pound within the growing pair GBP/JPY amid the weakening risk aversion and demand for it within the falling euro/pound.

The British pound strengthened against the US dollar quite confidently, breaking through the strong resistance level of 1.5510 on its way. Then the pair decreased to the support level of 1.5400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5510.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY increased at the end of the yesterday’s trades. Earlier the pair dollar / yen was under pressure from the market negative attitude towards the dollar (ICE Dollar Index reached 94.19 against 94.47 in the Wednesday morning ) as the Federal Reserve System chairman (FRS) Janet Yellen expressed quite careful position towards the interest rates. The Japanese exporters’ sales also put pressure on the pair. The pair potential reduction is limited by the Japanese importers demand and the Bank of Japan extremely soft policy.

The yen has been very sluggish and lowly volatile for the seven trading days. The last four days the trade has acquired a flat character around the uptrend line of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar / franc potential reduction is limited by the franc sales within the growing pairs: AUS/CHF, NZU/CHF and CAD/CHF. It is also supported by the Switzerland negative interest rates and the Swiss National Bank intervention threat with the franc sales.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:14 am



"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

In the light of the Fed recent announcements all investors’ attention will be focused on the US economic data, namely the consumer inflation figures, durable goods orders, jobless claims, real wages and the US GDP.


It is expected that jobless claims will grow up, but not much, to 290 000 against 283 000. The main thing is that they remain below 300,000 which will point out to the continued strong upward trend in the labor market.

The January real wages data will play an important role. In December it increased by 0.2% and in January it is expected to rise by 0.3%. And, despite the fact that this figure is quite volatile, the overall salary dynamics increase indicates, although, the slow, but the US income recovery levels.

The US economic figures came out better then the forecast or even a little better and it returned expectation for the further interest rate increase in June to the markets and will have a positive impact on the US dollar. We would like to remind that on Tuesday and Wednesday J. Yellen persistently claimed that the interest rate increase deadlines will depend on the labor market and inflation statistics.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro sharply fell at the end of the trades. Earlier the pair euro/dollar was supported by the negative attitude towards the dollar and demand for the single European currency within the growing euro/yen amid the risk aversion weakening on the market. The euro growth potential is limited by the ECB large-scale quantitative easing program and the euro sales.

The pair was growing from the support level of 1.1300 amid the low volumes. Nevertheless the pair could not continue the growth and sharply decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support level of 1.1170.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pair GBP/USD maintained the market negative attitude towards the dollar, demand for British pound within the growing pair GBP/JPY amid the weakening risk aversion and demand for it within the falling euro/pound.

The British pound strengthened against the US dollar quite confidently, breaking through the strong resistance level of 1.5510 on its way. Then the pair decreased to the support level of 1.5400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5510.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY increased at the end of the yesterday’s trades. Earlier the pair dollar / yen was under pressure from the market negative attitude towards the dollar (ICE Dollar Index reached 94.19 against 94.47 in the Wednesday morning ) as the Federal Reserve System chairman (FRS) Janet Yellen expressed quite careful position towards the interest rates. The Japanese exporters’ sales also put pressure on the pair. The pair potential reduction is limited by the Japanese importers demand and the Bank of Japan extremely soft policy.

The yen has been very sluggish and lowly volatile for the seven trading days. The last four days the trade has acquired a flat character around the uptrend line of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar / franc potential reduction is limited by the franc sales within the growing pairs: AUS/CHF, NZU/CHF and CAD/CHF. It is also supported by the Switzerland negative interest rates and the Swiss National Bank intervention threat with the franc sales.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Mar 01, 2015 7:28 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar rose strongly against the euro after the US core CPI showed the first increase in January compared to the same period of the previous year from October 2009. The trades closed in the US dollar favor which strengthened against the euro by 167 points; the trading volatility totaled 196 points last week.

According to the data, the US initial jobless claims rose by 31 thousand to 313 thousand from 15 till 21 February while economists had expected the number would remain at the level of 290 thousand.

The US inflation data added strong pressure on the market which fell by 0.7%, but the core CPI, which excludes the food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% in January that supported the US dollar in the afternoon.

The durable goods orders volume rose by 2.8% in January 2015 which is a very good sign for the US economic growth. These data also supported the US dollar as economists had expected increase only by 1.7%.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has fallen by 160 points. The formal and "official" reason was the root inflation index growth – the US consumer prices increased by 0.2% in January. The forecast was 0.1%.

Consolidation in the downward channel upper bound of 1.1400 led to the price rebound downwards and the support level breakthrough of 1.1300. Due to the formed breakthrough, the medium-term bearish trend has strengthened in the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1040 and 1.0925 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound lost 120 points. We consider that the genuine reason for its decline lies in a sharp demand increase for European bonds which investors are actively buying before their repurchase by the ECB which will begin in March.

The active pound decline against the US dollar was followed from the resistance level of 1.5510. The price decrease was followed by the increased volumes and was suspended by the uptrend line of 1.5400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 1.5510. If the price falls it will get to 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar is slightly declining against the yen after the Japan disappointing economic data release while demand for the US dollar weakened after the American statistics publication.

The trade within the Japanese yen has been in the bottom of the upward flat for the last two weeks.

The strong resistance level of 119.20 was broken upwards. The pair is trading towards to 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support levels of 119.20, 118.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc has rapidly grown during the US session and reached the highest level since the day that the Swiss National Bank released the franc against the euro. The mixed statistics publication supported the dollar and the pair increased at the end of the last week.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9150. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:10 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

After the last week dollar quite strengthening amid the market preparation to March when the ECB intends to launch the bond purchase program, the dollar is traded once again in its growth direction against the European majors. Most of the US economic messages announced the results within and above forecasts which allows the US dollar to keep balance after the news publication from other regions that are currently supported by its competitors.

The dollar and the yen opposition was not an exception - the US dollar continued its growth that started last week. In this case, the market was, probably, guided by the Japanese economic data which, in some way, possessed the opinion that the Japan Central Bank still would have to launch the softening program as well as the positive part of the US data which traditionally supports the pair dollar/yen.

The market volatility can grow amid the ECB and the BoE decisions at the meetings which will end on Thursday.

The dollar is also supported by the Fed top managers’ speeches (Bullard, Lockhart) and their statements showed that the Fed rate is firmly directed towards the monetary policy tightening.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The market's attention will be focused on the US and European business activity index as well as on the new signals regarding the Federal Reserve future rate hikes.

Earlier the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Dennis Lockhart said that he expected the Fed interest rates increase during the summer months, though, he believe that this decision would need additional confirmation from the macroeconomic data.

The signal for correction is the downward channel lower bound of 1.1170 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential correction target is the resistance level of 1.1300.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound is trying to intercept the US dollar initiative amid the confident macroeconomic indicators and the US Federal Reserve unclear position and the pound has a chance to strengthen against the US dollar this week.

The downward correction continues from the resistance level of 1.5510. There was the prices decrease amid the lower volumes which led to the uptrend line of 1.5400 breakthrough. This break signals towards the downward correction continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.5300 testing soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen resumed its decline against the dollar amid the coming expectations that the continuing divergence in the Fed and the Bank of Japan monetary policy approaches will continue to put pressure on the yen against the dollar. It is known that the Japan industrial production rose up to 4% m/m in January while it was expected increase by 2.7% m/m.

There was the last week maximum of 119.85 update and the pair rose up to the psychological level of 120.00. The price fixed above the resistance level of 119.20. The volumes are in reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ target is the level of 120.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:23 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The beginning of the week was marked by the US dollar growth. The pair EUR/USD was in the flat near 1.1160-1.1245. The euro area inflation and unemployment positive releases could support the demand for the single European currency and at the moment quotations reached the level of 1.1245, but then traders closed their "longs" that caused the euro rebound. However the pair increased again.

The pair GBP/USD was under pressure amid the short positions profit taking at the cross-rate euro/pound as well as the US Treasury bond yields increase. The February UK manufacturing PMI was better than the forecasted medians, but traders did not hurry to open long positions. The pair EUR/GBP is in the oversold area that forced investors to withdraw partially from the short positions that put pressure on the British pound. Nevertheless the pair GBP/USD grew and is the flat.

Bulls dominated at market for the pair USD/JPY despite the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The ISM manufacturing index has shown a decline for the fourth month in a row which is the first wake-up call for the US economy. Nevertheless, traders focused their attention exclusively on the stock market dynamics. The pair fell on the yesterday’s trades.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

According to the Germany Federal Statistical Office, the January retail sales rose by 5.3% y/y, exceeding the estimates by 3.0%. Institutional investors ignored positive news that proves the bearish sentiment prevalence.


The mark of 1.1170 suspended the euro active reduction against the US dollar. The trade has moved into the low volatility framework.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1300. The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound down.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Center for Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics published the UK construction sector business climate release. The index rose up to 60.1 from 59.1.

The UK 10-year government bond yields increased significantly in February relative to the US and Germany analogues which also confirms the upward trend for the pair.

The price has not reached the support level of 1.5300 to test its strength.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a non-confirmed and a week sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the resistance level of 1.5300. The upward bounce potential target are 1.5400, 1.5510.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan household expenditure negative statistics indicates to the wages increase that can cheer the bulls up for the long positions opening. Yesterday the world leading stock markets confidently increased which is also a bullish factor for the pair USD/JPY.

Before reaching the last month high that is the mark of 120.40, the price turned down for a correction. The US dollar sharp decline against the Japanese yen is not supported by the trading volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 119.20 further on we expect a growth to 120.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Wed Mar 04, 2015 6:00 pm


"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar strengthened after it was under. The pair EUR/USD has increased on the January Germany retail sales positive data. The total indicator came out much better than the consensus forecast and the Germans seem to be able to pull the Old World economy out of crisis. The oil prices increase also have a positive impact on the euro quotes. However the pair sharply fell after the US economic releases publication.

The pair GBP/USD was in demand amid the Markit Economics construction sector positive release. The business climate indicator in this economic sector returned to 60% which indicates the UK economy strength. At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD has fallen.

Less of all the US dollar has increased with the Japanese yen. The Japan Ministry of Health, Welfare and Employment reported that the wages level slight increased in January that cheered bears to short. The correction in the US stock market has increased pressure on the USD/JPY which fell. The pair grew after new US economic data were published.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We should pay our attention to the euro zone retail sales for January. The data came out slightly better than the forecasted medians that supported the euro. However, the pair euro/dollar encountered the bears’ resistance near the 12th figure and in this connection the quotations growth will be limited by this area.

The euro continues to fall against the US dollar amid the weak volatility and the low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1040, the next one is at 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1040 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance levels of 1.1170.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

This week Markit Economics has reported the UK manufacturing and construction sectors growth that allows to count on the service sector business climate positive data output.

The bond market can also support the "bulls": the UK 10-year bond yields increase, comparing to the US and Germany analogues, is a positive factor for the pair GBP / USD.

Sellers lowered their price to the key level and broke down the support level of 1.5300 amid the very low volumes and the low volatility.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.5200 false test is more likely to lead to the level of 1.5300 return.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders’ attention will be focused on the ISM service sector. Only the data above 57.0 will support the US dollar, otherwise we will have a small rebound downwards. The oil quotations growth will also deter "bulls" from building up long positions. In the light of this we expect the lateral trend during the day.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 120.40 and 121.60. If the price falls it will get to 118.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Thu Mar 05, 2015 5:32 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has crushed its main competitors. The pair EUR/USD came under attack after the US ISM service sector positive release. In February the indicator rose to the level of 56.9 while the employment component rose to the level of 56.4 which is the highest value over the past three months and it allows us to count on the Non-Farm positive release on Friday 6 March. In addition, the dollar got the support from the ECB rates announcement and Mario Draghi’s speech. Against this background, the pair euro/dollar broke through the strong support level of 1.1040.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was also under pressure. Markit Economics has reported about the business optimism index decrease in the US service sector while the same US index was better than the forecasted medians. The "black gold" tendency also added negativity to the overall picture in the market - the week US crude stocks have again increased which caused the major quotation reduction.

The technical correction in the US stock market did not allow the dollar to strengthen its positions with the Japanese yen. At the end of the trading day the key benchmarks decreased by 0.5% which constrained the bulls from active attack.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday’s main event was the ECB meeting results announcement and Mario Draghi’s perfomance. The easing monetary policy started to bear fruit - there was a high private sector credit growth in January. The euro low rate will reflect positively on the trade balance which eventually helped to reduce the unemployment rate to 11.2%. However, it is too early to talk about the economic rates growth.

The Eurozone inflation expectations are still quite low - the German 10-year bond yields are now near historic lows and this factor will put pressure on the pair EUR/USD.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0950, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1040 the next one is at 1.1170.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential target is 1.0790. If the price grows it will get to 1.1170.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Gilts 10-year bond yields increase proves the best their hard work. The oil prices increase have a positive impact on the February and March CPI index. In the light of this, the regulator should not launch the monetary easing. The ISM service sector positive releases cheered bulls to short and now the US dollar looks as a favorite one.

The UK and Germany 10-year bond yields reached 150 basis points, indicating the downward trend continuation within the pair EUR/GBP. Apparently, this factor will deter the British pound from the strong prices decline.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5200 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan and the US bond yields show insignificant fluctuations and in this connection it does not form distinct signals. After the technical correction in the US stock market we expect the bulls return amid the US positive macroeconomic statistics. This factor shall support the pair.

The dollar growth against the yen looks uncertain. There was the strong resistance level of 119.20 breakthrough amid the low volatility and the weak volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential increase targets are two levels of resistance: 120.40, 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc is moderately weakening against the dollar. On Wednesday the US dollar updated historical highs after the solid data publication about the US employment market.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9340. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

Post by ValdisTF on Sun Mar 08, 2015 4:33 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.46. The pair EUR/USD set a fresh 11-year low. Investors still win back the beginning of the ECB quantitative easing program. The US and Germany 10-year bond yields once again greatly expanded and the Non-Farms release came out better then forecast that caused the pair euro/dollar quotations decrease.

The pair GBP/USD is also under pressure, but it decreased more modestly in comparison with the major currency pair. The Bank of England left the monetary policy unchanged, but the institutional investors’ bullish sentiment towards the US dollar did not allow the British pound to strengthen its position. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD has decreased.

The dollar growth was going on all fronts – the pair USD/JPY increased at the end of the day. The demand for the European risky assets and encouraged bulls to long and at the moment quotations reached the level of 120.90. However, the US jobless claims negative release cooled the bulls’ ardor but the employment rate in the US rose more than economists expected.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Last Friday main event was the February US labor market publication. The Non-Farm data output was better than it was forecasted. The positive publication was followed by the pair decrease. However, the US and Germany 10-year bond yields expansion will deter the bulls from the active attack.

Having consolidated below the level of 1.1040, sellers actively continued to decline the euro against the US dollar amid the increased volume. The mark of 1.0925 has been broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925 the next one is at 1.1040.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0790 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The United States released a set of important macroeconomic statistics. With regard to the non-farm payrolls release - the data output was better than the forecasted medians. The trade balance disappointed traders with its weak figures which can cause the short positions profit-taking wave.

After the strong support level of 1.5300 breakthrough which led to the bullish trend reversal, the first target was the mark of 1.5200 that had been already tested. The pair broke through the level of 1.5100 also.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break below 1.5015 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4920 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Amid the US postive macroeconomic statistics - the bulls are going to break through the January maximum which is at the mark of 120.73. Simultaneous growth on the world leading stock markets indicates the high risk appetite which traditionally causes escape from the Japanese yen.

Buyers broke through and fixate above the last month maximum of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 121.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar/franc will consolidate with a tendency to increase after it reached the 6-week high of 0.9755 then the pair increased to the level of 0.9858. Its dynamics was affected by the US non-farm employment data results. The pair is supported with the large-scale improved market’s attitude towards the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


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